What's next for Japan after far-right election surge? – DW – 07/21/2025
Japan's coalition government led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday's election after large gains made by right-wing populist parties, in a sign that right-wing populism and polarization are now also undermining political stability in Japan.
For now, Ishiba has vowed to hang on as prime minister, despite the second election debacle in nine months. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost a snap election last October, making it a minority party ruling with a coalition.
Ishiba has said he would "humbly accept" the result and "continue to take responsibility for national affairs."
However, Ishiba's continuation as prime minister no longer depends on him alone. A strengthened opposition could topple him at any time with a vote of no confidence, even if these parties are not united enough to forge a governing coalition themselves.
Ishiba also faces the threat of a rebellion within the LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously for 70 years and has always controlled at least one chamber of parliament.
Conservative LDP heavyweight Taro Aso has said he "could not accept" Ishiba as prime minister.
However, potential successors appear to be staying under cover for the time being. "Nobody wants to replace Ishiba in these difficult times for the LDP," political scientist Masahiro Iwasaki from Nihon University in Tokyo told DW.
The ruling coalition of the LDP and the Buddhist Komei Party missed its self-imposed target of retaining a majority in the upper house of parliament, with 125 of 248 seats up for reelection. The coalition missed by only three seats, which was an unexpectedly close result.
The LDP is now likely to try to win over some independent MPs to its side. Even if this succeeds, the government is still on shaky ground.
One of Ishiba's options would be to expand his governing alliance. However, the major opposition parties have already declared that they would not enter into a grand coalition. Apparently, they doubt that Ishiba will remain prime minister and LDP leader in the medium term.
This leaves the 68-year-old politician with the option of selective cooperation with individual opposition parties, which he has been doing since losing his majority in the more important lower house at the end of October.
However, this will not succeed without painful concessions, for example, on tax issues. Before the election, Ishiba rejected opposition demands for a reduction in VAT on food. Instead, he promised every citizen a cash payment of 20,000 yen (€116/$135) by the end of the year to compensate for the loss of purchasing power due to high inflation.
According to Japanese media, the LDP's election debacle comes as many voters are dissatisfied with the three-year decline in real wages caused by high inflation, along with a sharp increase in foreign workers and tourists.
Two young, right-wing populist parties benefited the most from this, but the largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, hardly benefited at all.
The Sanseito party, which is only five years old, increased its number of seats in the upper house from two to 14 and the Democratic Party for the People from nine to 17.
The Sanseito party went into the election campaign with the openly xenophobic slogan "Japanese First" and has accused the government of pursuing a "policy of concealed immigration."
The number of foreign residents in Japan grew by 10% in 2024 to just under 4 million. The Sanseito Party claims that recruiting foreigners as workers to address an ageing and shrinking population will disrupt Japan's social harmony.
Founder Sohei Kamiya has said his party has been modeled after Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and other European far-right parties.
The Democratic Party for the People, with its charismatic leader Yuichiro Tamaki, is now the third strongest force in the party system, which lends political weight to its main demand for tax cuts.
"Both right-wing parties were able to capitalize on the anger of the younger generations towards the political system," analyst Tobias Harris told DW, citing percieved gerontocracy, inflation and stagnant wages as key factors.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Int'l Business Times
3 days ago
- Int'l Business Times
'#Ishiba Don't Quit': Unlikely Support Grows For Japan PM
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future is uncertain but an unlikely campaign for him to stay was growing online this week, including from people who are his natural political opponents. The life raft has emerged since upper house elections on Sunday deprived Ishiba's coalition of an upper house majority, months after it suffered a similar disaster in the lower chamber. Despite Ishiba, 68, insisting that he has not discussed his resignation with members of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), multiple reports say that it is just a matter of time. Some conservative members of the LDP are collecting signatures to hold a special meeting to discuss a leadership election to oust Ishiba, Fuji TV reported on Friday. One reported signee is Sanae Takaichi, a hardline nationalist and onetime heavy metal drummer who lost a leadership contest to Ishiba in September. Takaichi, 64, would likely run again to lead the party -- and become Japan's first woman prime minister if she wins -- if Ishiba does depart. The prospect of someone as premier with hawkish views on Japanese history and China has fuelled online calls for the moderate Ishiba to remain in power under the hashtag "#Ishiba Don't quit". Some of the calls came from opposition politicians to the left of the LDP, including even from a Communist Party member of a local ward assembly. Ishiba "is the most reasonable LDP leader in recent memory", LaSalle Ishii, a newly elected lawmaker for the Social Democratic Party, said on X. "If he resigns, a far-right government will be born," the well-known comedian and voice actor said. Taro Yamamoto, the leader of small opposition party Reiwa Shinsengumi, was among the first to voice concern about Ishiba's replacement. "The question is, if he were not to continue, who is going to replace him instead?" he told reporters during a Monday news conference. "His economic policies are no good, but for Ishiba-san to continue, I think it's a safe choice." A rally is also planned for Friday evening in front of the prime minister's office to urge him to stay, although it was uncertain how many would attend. Shortly after the Sunday election, a Kyodo News survey put the approval rating for the Ishiba government at just 22.9 percent. But in that same poll, 45.8 percent of the public believed there was no need for him to resign. The LDP has governed almost non-stop since 1955, but voters have been deserting the party, including towards fringe groups like the "Japanese first" Sanseito. Factors include rising prices, notably for rice, falling living standards, and anger at corruption scandals within the LDP. The opposition is seen as too fragmented to form an alternative government. But being in a minority in both houses of parliament means Ishiba's coalition needs support from other parties to pass legislation. This comes just as Japan faces multiple challenges including a ballooning social security budget to pay pensions for its rapidly ageing and shrinking population. A new trade deal announced this week with US President Donald Trump will see Japanese imports face a painful 15 percent tariff, although this was lower than a threatened 25 percent. "We'll evaluate it every quarter, and if the president is unhappy then they will boomerang back to the 25 percent tariff rates," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said afterwards.
Int'l Business Times
4 days ago
- Int'l Business Times
Asian Markets Extend Gains On US Trade Deal Hopes
Asian markets extended the week's gains Thursday on optimism other countries will follow up Japan's US trade deal with ones of their own, with speculation building that the European Union is on course. Investors have been on a roll in recent weeks on bets that governments will eventually hammer out pacts with Donald Trump ahead of the US president's August 1 deadline. The mood has been upbeat since news that Japan had reached a deal to lower sweeping tariffs from 25 percent to 15 percent, including those on the country's crucial car sector. The breakthrough fanned hopes that others were in the pipeline. However, there is talk that the European Union is edging towards an agreement. Reports say Brussels could get something similar to Japan, with tariffs cut to 15 percent -- from the threatened 30 percent. The Financial Times said the two would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices. That came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said negotiations were making progress, with talks planned later in the day between the bloc's top trade negotiator and his American counterpart. Analysts said a deal with Washington's biggest trading entity would provide a massive boost to equities However, failure to reach a deal, triggering Trump's 30 percent levies on August 1, could cause havoc on markets, analysts warned. France has been loudest in insisting Brussels must show it is willing to deploy its trade weapon, known as the anti-coercion instrument -- allowing officials to take measures such as import and export restrictions on goods and services. Neil Wilson at Saxo Markets warned that would end up "effectively killing trade between the two... the nuclear option is on the table it seems, but for the moment expectation seems to be veering towards a deal". After another record day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wall Street, Asia picked up the baton and ran. Tokyo piled on two percent, having jumped more than three percent Wednesday on the trade deal, while Hong Kong continued its standout year with another advance. Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei and Manila also rose. Traders are also keeping an eye on developments in Tokyo after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied discussing his resignation with party elders on Wednesday, as speculation about his future intensified following a weekend election debacle. Despite the saga, the yen extended its gains, briefly hitting 145.86 per dollar as the trade deal allows investors to turn their attention to the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week hoping for guidance on its next interest rate hike. The unit had been sitting around 147.90 before the deal. Bank officials have held off rocking the boat on the issue amid tariff uncertainty, but observers say the agreement can allow them to reconsider lifting in October. Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 2.0 percent at 41,983.50 (break) Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 25,606.58 Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,588.11 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 146.06 yen from 146.47 yen on Wednesday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1772 from $1.1777 Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3582 from $1.3579 Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.66 pence from 86.68 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $65.47 per barrel Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $68.71 per barrel New York - Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 45,010.29 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 9,061.49 (close)
Int'l Business Times
4 days ago
- Int'l Business Times
US-EU Tariff Talks Progress As Trump Announces Japan Deal
United States and European officials signaled progress in tariff talks Wednesday, after US President Donald Trump announced a pact with Japan and China said its vice premier would attend bilateral negotiations next week. In an attempt to slash his country's trade deficits, Trump has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariff hikes if they do not hammer out a pact with Washington by August 1. While the Trump administration earlier promised "90 deals in 90 days" as it delayed the imposition of higher duties in April, Washington has so far unveiled just five agreements including with Japan and the Philippines. The others are with Britain, Vietnam and Indonesia, the latter of which the White House noted would ease critical mineral export restrictions. Negotiations remain ongoing with major US trading partners China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Washington and Brussels signaled negotiations were moving along, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz voicing optimism that "decisions" may be coming soon. Several EU diplomats added that the bloc was examining a US proposal involving a 15 percent tariff -- and sectoral carve-outs still to be decided. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was expected to speak with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, told Bloomberg Television: "I think that we are making good progress with the EU." Separately, representatives from China and the United States will meet next week in Swedish capital Stockholm to further negotiations before an August 12 deadline agreed in May. Beijing and Washington imposed tit-for-tat levies on each other's exports this year, reaching triple-digit levels, before agreeing to lower these temporarily until mid-August. As the clock ticks down, China said Wednesday it would seek to "strengthen cooperation" with Washington, and confirmed vice premier He Lifeng would attend the talks. For now, Trump was touting Washington's agreement with Japan as "a massive deal." He said on his Truth Social platform Tuesday that under the deal, "Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits." Bessent told Bloomberg Television that Japan received a 15 percent tariff rate, down from the 25 percent threatened, as "they were willing to provide this innovative financing mechanism." "They are going to provide equity credit guarantees and funding for major projects in the US," Bessent said. Japanese exports to the United States were already subject to a 10 percent tariff, and this would have spiked to 25 percent come August 1 without a deal. Duties of 25 percent on Japanese autos -- an industry accounting for eight percent of Japanese jobs -- were also already in place, plus 50 percent on steel and aluminum. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the autos levy had now been cut to 15 percent, sending Japanese car stocks soaring, with Toyota and Mitsubishi up around 14 percent each. The Nikkei rose 3.5 percent. "We are the first (country) in the world to reduce tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, with no limits on volume," he told reporters. Japan's trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa, who secured the deal on his eighth visit to Washington, said the 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum would remain. Akazawa also said increased defense spending by Japan -- something Trump has pressed for -- was not part of the agreement. Trump added Tuesday that Japan agreed as well to "open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things." Rice imports are a sensitive issue in Japan, and Ishiba's government -- which lost its upper house majority in elections on Sunday -- had previously ruled out any concessions. Japan currently imports 770,000 tons of rice tariff-free under its World Trade Organization commitments, and Ishiba said it would import more US grain within this. Ishiba said Wednesday that the deal does not "sacrifice" Japan's agricultural sector. Tatsuo Yasunaga, the chair of the Japan Foreign Trade Council, welcomed the trade deal but said the business community needed to see details to assess its impact. Other US trading partners are watching closely as the August 1 deadline approaches. The Philippines' deal announced Tuesday only saw levies cut by one percentage point, to 19 percent, after Trump hosted President Ferdinand Marcos. China on Wednesday said it supported "equal dialogue" following the announcement of the Japan-US deal.
