The 2026 midterms are officially underway
The next federal elections are still some 15 months off, but political shifts in recent days across four key battleground states are the clearest sign yet that the race to carve out lanes ahead of the 2026 midterms is already underway.
Below we break down pivotal announcements from Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — all swing states Trump won last year by less than 384,000 votes combined. Some of the newly declared candidates are looking to clear the field, while others are hoping to define their nascent primary contests on their own terms in hopes of forcing possible challengers to react to their opening salvos. At least one candidate on this list appears to be angling for the only endorsement that matters on the GOP side: Donald Trump.
North Carolina
The widespread speculation was finally put to rest Monday with Roy Cooper, the state's popular two-term ex-governor, announcing via video on social media that he's running for the open U.S. Senate seat.
His bid is viewed as a massive recruiting victory for Democrats, who see North Carolina as perhaps the best pick-up opportunity in what is expected to be a tough Senate map next year. Democrats have reason to be excited if the past is any indication: Cooper is undefeated in statewide contests during a career that includes eight years as governor and nearly 16 years prior to that as the state attorney general.
Cooper's candidacy already appears to have a clearing effect with other Democrats. Rep. Don Davis and former Rep. Wiley Nickel are both standing down in the race according to POLITICO's Nicholas Wu. Had he run, Davis could have been the state's first Black senator. Instead, he is likely to run for reelection to his competitive House district. Nickel, who launched his bid in April, is reportedly now eyeing the state's attorney general post.
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On the GOP side, Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley will run, according to reporting from POLITICO's Dasha Burns last week. Whatley, who previously led the North Carolina Republican Party before Trump picked him to lead the RNC, has never been a candidate but has deep connections to donors.
The Senate contest is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive races in the next cycle after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced last month he would not seek reelection.
Nevada
Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, a Democrat, announced Monday that he was launching a bid for governor, setting up a pivotal clash as he attempts to unseat GOP incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo.
As POLITICO's Natalie Fertig points out, Ford also has a compelling story to offer voters. He grew up as a recipient of food stamps and Medicaid benefits and now plans to run against Republicans' efforts to gut those same programs, which he claims will negatively impact Nevadans.
But unlike Cooper in North Carolina, other Democrats won't be clearing the field for Ford, who is attempting to become his state's first Black governor. Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill is also readying to launch a gubernatorial bid, setting up what could be a competitive primary. Keep an eye too on former Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, who lost to Lombardo in 2022 by less than 2 percentage points and said as recently as April that he has not ruled out another run in 2026.
Georgia
There are two key elections in the Peach State next year with both governor and senator on the ballot. Heading into the primaries, the intriguing action is on the GOP side as contenders race to win Trump's endorsement, with culture war issues taking center stage.
Rep. Mike Collins dropped an announcement video on Monday showing him driving a big rig truck and proclaiming he helped 'drive home Trump's 'big, beautiful bill'' before adding moments later, 'We killed woke DEI garbage and banned boys from playing girls' sports.'
Collins is also the author of the Laken Riley Act, the first bill Trump signed into law during his second term, which requires the detainment of any undocumented immigrant charged — not convicted — of crimes including theft and burglary. It's named after a Georgia nursing student who was murdered in Collins' district.
Fellow Georgia GOP Rep. Buddy Carter, who is also leaning into his ties to Trump, referred to himself as a 'MAGA warrior' in his own campaign video announcement in May, which was released the day after the state's term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp declined to jump into the Senate race himself.
The GOP field is still not set as Georgia political watchers are waiting for political newcomer Derek Dooley, the one-time head coach for the University of Tennessee football team who reportedly will get Kemp's support should he launch a Senate bid.
Wisconsin
Democrat Tony Evers announcement last week that he would not seek a third term as Wisconsin's governor came as a surprise for some, but it immediately blew wide open a competitive gubernatorial contest that could be among the most expensive in the nation next year.
Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez launched her candidacy the following day, railing against Trump as 'a maniac in the White House,' citing his tariffs' detrimental effect on Wisconsinites and painting herself as someone who will fight to expand Medicaid and champion the health care workforce. Rodriguez is a former emergency room nurse and is married to a first-generation immigrant from Mexico. She's been candid about how Trump's campaign rhetoric from the 2024 campaign, when he said immigrants are 'poisoning the blood of our country,' impacted her family.
As with other states, Rodriguez's entry into the race will do little to clear the field.
One grassroots organizer in the state, when asked to weigh in on the potentially large Democratic field, said: 'This is going to be a long and annoying primary.'
A slew of Democrats are expected to jump into the race; that list potentially includes state Attorney General Josh Kaul, former state Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, and state Sen. Kelda Roys. Both Roys and Rodriguez would be the state's first woman to serve as governor. Three other potential candidates would also make history should they choose to enter the race: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson and former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes, who narrowly lost a Senate bid 2022, are all considering a gubernatorial bid. All three men would make history as the first Black person to serve as Wisconsin governor should any of them win.
On the GOP side, former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker declined to run again but offered advice on the social media platform X for Republicans to court younger voters.
Republicans who are running include Josh Schoemann, the Washington County executive, and Bill Berrien, a Navy SEAL veteran and manufacturing CEO who likened himself to Trump and self-identifies as 'an outsider and a business man.'
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) is also leaning toward launching a bid.
All the best,The Recast Team
PROJECT 2025 AUTHOR PRIMARIES LINDSEY GRAHAM
Paul Dans, one of the leading architects of Project 2025, is mounting a primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham, arguing that the four-term senator's loyalty to Trump is unsatisfactory.
His entry in the race will undoubtedly test the MAGA base's loyalties, and Dans told The Associated Press he does not plan to shy away from Trump's push to gut the federal workforce and scale back federal safety net programs — efforts outlined in the policy blueprint he helped author.
'What we've done with Project 2025 is really change the game in terms of closing the door on the progressive era,' Dans told the AP. 'If you look at where the chokepoint is, it's the United States Senate. That's the headwaters of the swamp.'
Over the course of his career Graham has proven a formidable candidate and has routinely beat back GOP challengers. But next year's primary field is growing bigger as many see him as vulnerable, despite the fact that he has already secured Trump's endorsements as well of those fellow GOP Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster — who will both serve as co-chairs of his 2026 campaign.
South Carolina Democrats, who are attempting to claw back into relevance in the state after Republicans gained super majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature following the 2024 election, may see an opportunity to meddle in the GOP Senate primary.
'If we don't have a contested primary, I see Dems voting in the Republican [primary],' longtime South Carolina Democratic strategist and DNC member Clay Middleton told The Recast.
POLITICO's Nicole Markus noted that Chris LaCivita, who is serving as senior advisor to Graham's campaign, said Dans 'parachuted himself' into South Carolina after being 'unceremoniously dumped in 2024 while trying to torpedo Donald Trump's historic campaign.'
LaCivita added: 'Like everything Paul Dans starts, this too will end prematurely.'
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
Trump floats pardon of Epstein co-conspirator — While overseas in Scotland, Trump was asked by reporters if he'd consider pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell. She is currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence for child sex trafficking and other crimes in connection with a scheme that spanned years where she and Jefferey Epstein would groom and sexually abuse underage girls. POLITICO's Cheyanne M. Daniels reports Trump said: 'Well, I'm allowed to give her a pardon, but I — nobody's approached me with it.'
And more…
TODAY'S CULTURE NEWS
Deion Sanders reveals he beat cancer — The NFL Hall of Famer and current head coach at the University of Colorado revealed he had been diagnosed with an aggressive form of bladder cancer but is now considered cured following surgery.
Sea World splashes with summer concert series — The San Diego theme park has drawn crowds and an elevated social media presence for hosting nostalgic acts like Ashanti and Ying Yang Twins at the venue's Bayside Amphitheater.
Eddie Murphy weighs in on being 'the old guy' — The comedy legend waxes poetic about bonding with fellow comic Pete Davidson on their latest film, as well as being a 64-year-old star, still doing action scenes and having co-stars ad lib by needling him about his age.
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Los Angeles Times
3 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
A Congolese refugee's 8-year struggle to reunite with her family in the U.S.
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New York Post
3 minutes ago
- New York Post
Trump will be present at Kennedy Center as honorees are announced today
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The Hill
3 minutes ago
- The Hill
Leland Vittert: Jan. 6 ‘has nothing to do' with crime in D.C.
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