Tropical Storm Erin expected to strengthen, become hurricane. Latest spaghetti models
Strengthening is expected to begin soon, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are predicting Erin will become a major hurricane toward the end of the week or over the weekend. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Even as a tropical rainstorm, Erin dumped 7 to 8 inches of rain on the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, killing at least six people, according to AccuWeather.
The National Hurricane Center said it is still too early to determine "what impacts, if any, Erin will bring" to Florida or the east coast of the United States. Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they're prepared.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin
➤ How often has Florida been impacted, threatened by August hurricanes? We took a look back
Track all active Atlantic storms and disturbances
What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season?
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
"It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint."
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
Florida weather radar for Aug. 12, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 20)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter (Aug. 3)
Erin: AIR-rin (Aug. 11)
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Erin 2025: spaghetti models, Florida hurricane tracker
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
When does the first hurricane usually form? See charts
Tropical Storm Erin continues to travel west and is on track to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season by the end of this week, the National Hurricane Center said. Typically, the first hurricane of the season forms in July or August, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Nearly 60 years of data shows that the average date of the first hurricane is Aug. 11. Colorado State University predicts 16 named storms and eight hurricanes to develop over the next three months – slightly above average for the season. Here's what you need to know about the Atlantic hurricane season and when it generally starts picking up. Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Storm to become major hurricane soon August is most common month for the first hurricane of the year The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Data from NOAA analyzed by shows that since 1966, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season formed in August in 24 of the past 59 years. NOAA began full satellite coverage of the Atlantic Basin in 1966. Two hurricanes have developed out of hurricanes season: 1970 had it's first hurricane on May 20, 1970, and in 2016, the first hurricane formed on Jan. 14. Hurricane season: Forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season as Atlantic waters heat up. How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. The ramp-up to a busy hurricane season Aug. 6-19 typically marks the beginning of the ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The primary formation area for major hurricanes in early to mid-August is in the tropical Atlantic, east of the Lesser Antilles. Generally, earlier-season hurricanes form in the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea, matching the areas that are favorable for development in June or early July, The Weather Channel reported. How can you prepare for hurricane season? For more suggestions, visit NOAA's hurricane preparations page. Contributing: Doyle Rice, Gabe Hauari
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Sometimes an open Atlantic storm is just an open Atlantic storm. In fact, that's true the majority of the time. Of the approximately 1,300 named storms that have developed in the Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean since 1900, about 400 went on to make landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline. That leaves about two-thirds of storms as someone else's problem, or my personal preference, no one's problem. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Hurricane news: Get the latest hurricane updates and how communities are preparing, responding, and recovering. Point being, while the average season has three to five tropical storm and one to two hurricane landfalls in the continental U.S., a given storm is less likely than not to strike land. That's particularly true for cyclones developing in the Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, where formation is common in August and September but only around 1-in-5 of those systems will ever be a U.S. threat. Tropical Storm Erin is not going to beat those odds, despite what you may have read this week from purveyors of unnecessary drama such as Uncle Frank's Xtreme Weather Basement, Florida Clout Chaserz, or Gulf Coast Hurricane/Monster Jam First ALERT. Where is Erin now and where is the future hurricane heading? As of late Wednesday morning, Erin is about 1,200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving a touch south of due west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Erin's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph, little changed since it developed on Monday. Thus far, tepid sea surface temperatures and nearby dry air have kept Erin's development prospects under arrest like a Charles Entertainment Cheese accused of financial fraud. However, while thunderstorm activity associated with Erin remains limited today, as its well-organized circulation moves west-northwest into warmer waters over the next day or two, low shear and sufficient moisture should allow it to start strengthening in earnest. By Saturday, Erin will likely be the first hurricane of the 2025 season as it passes a few hundred miles north of the northeastern Lesser Antilles, and may well reach Category 3 strength on Sunday or Monday as it moves north of Puerto Rico. These islands will not experience the worst of Erin, but could see intermittent bands of gusty showers between Saturday and Monday, along with high seas. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Only a 5% chance that a hurricane Erin becomes a U.S. threat, but East Coast could see rip currents Erin's path next week looks increasingly clear. As the storm reaches the western edge of a ridge of high pressure in the central Atlantic, it will turn north toward a dip in the jet stream over eastern Canada starting on Monday, pass near or west of Bermuda around Aug. 20 as a major hurricane, then accelerate northeast. There is a strong model consensus for this steering pattern, which should keep Erin's center well east of the U.S. East Coast. This isn't a situation where Erin could 'miss' the trough that will bend its path northward; even if the storm is farther south and west than predicted in the medium term, it'll turn north once the ridge to its north weakens. That means the already slim chances of Erin posing eventual U.S. landfall risks are narrowing further. At the start of the week, I put those odds at a little over 10%; now, with the steering pattern forecast firming up, I'd say there's a 5% (or lower) possibility of Erin threatening the continental U.S. next week. While we don't know exactly how far offshore Erin will pass and there is uncertainty in precisely what the steering winds will be in 7 days, forecasts of the jet stream pattern are reliable at this range and show no sign of major changes afoot. Thus, Erin will cause heavy surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard starting mid-next week, but nothing in the way of rain, surge, or wind. Satellite view of Tropical Storm Erin When a real threat looms: WeatherTiger has your back Elsewhere, the tropics are mostly quiet. A disturbance crossing the Yucatan Peninsula will spread some moisture from northern Mexico to central Texas Friday and Saturday, though development is improbable before it moves inland. Otherwise, I'd guess that one more tropical wave may develop at some point over the next 12 days in the central or eastern tropical Atlantic based on generally favorable environmental conditions, but there's nothing specific to watch at this time. Assuming Erin behaves itself, it's a well-timed reminder that the historical peak of hurricane season is just beginning. Over 80% of U.S. major hurricane landfalls occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15, so the ripple of Erin agita should prompt you to ensure your hurricane kit and evacuation plans are in place. Erin also gives you a valuable opportunity to evaluate how your sources of hurricane information frame their reporting. If your sources were running around like Mike the Headless Chicken (a real 1940s carnival act who survived decapitation and could perform basic functions like eating, breathing, comparing tropical waves to Irma, and posting the 384-hour GFS 'for awareness') hyping up a non-existent Florida threat from Erin, I'd recommend you find less emotional, more scientific sources for the rest of the year. Hurricane season is bad enough without gross exaggeration for clicks. I view my most important job as making sure you have the lead time necessary to be optimally prepared for the surge, wind, rain, and tornado hazards from tropical cyclones, especially high-impact major storms. The flip side is that for my heads-up to mean anything, there can't be five false alarms for every actual threat. I don't show model runs from the world of pure imagination beyond a week out because they are just scary, not skillful or useful, and I have no interest in scaring you. Hurricane season is a marathon made up of discrete sprints. Discretion is the better part of valor, and though Erin should be a formidable hurricane next week, it isn't cause for concern, much less a sprint. We don't need to do that to ourselves, even as we keep watching the skies. Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company providing forensic meteorology expert witness services and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Visit to learn more. Email Truchelut at ryan@ This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Tropical Storm Erin forecast: Only a 5% threat to Florida, East Coast
USA Today
2 hours ago
- USA Today
How 'glacial outburst' flooding was averted in Alaska's capital city
The danger is over for residents of Alaska's capital city of Juneau, who were urged to evacuate on Aug. 13 as the nearby Mendenhall River, engorged by water from a glacial outburst caused by a melting glacier, surpassed record flood levels. Emergency barriers built to protect Mendenhall Valley and Juneau, a city of about 32,000 people in the Alaskan panhandle, were successful, USA TODAY reported. Most of Juneau's residents live in the valley. Two miles of HESCO barriers were installed along the river in June to mitigate summer flooding from the Mendenhall Glacier. Glacial flooding is driven by climate change, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The flood threat did not affect a planned summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled on Aug. 15 at a military base near Anchorage, more than 500 miles away. What happens when a melting glacier causes flooding? This is how a glacial outburst sent water toward the Mendenhall Valley, threatening Juneau. The Mendenhall Glacier is a river of ice about 12 miles long and 1.5 miles wide. It's moving from the Juneau Icefield in the Coast Mountains down the Mendenhall Valley to Mendenhall Lake, about 12 miles from Juneau. The glacier acts as a dam for nearby Suicide Basin, a lake-sized bowl that holds rainwater and annual snowmelt. As the glacier melts, it releases a large amount of water from the basin in what's called a glacial outburst. That water reaches Mendenhall Lake a day or two later and then enters the river, which could have flooded Juneau. Major flooding was prevented According to the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center, the amount of flooding in the Mendenhall Valley was determined by: ◾The amount of water in Suicide Basin. ◾The rate at which the water flows beneath Mendenhall Glacier and into Mendenhall Lake. ◾How the level of Mendenhall Lake rises. Barriers prevented flooding, but city officials asked evacuated residents to remain outside the area until notified it's safe to return. Water levels were predicted to drop rapidly following the crest, USA TODAY reported. Where in Alaska will Trump and Putin meet? Trump and the Russian president will meet at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, a 13,000-square-acre U.S. military base in Anchorage, a White House official confirmed to USA TODAY. The two leaders are expected to discuss Russia's three-year war in Ukraine. CONTRIBUTING Trevor Hughes, Jeanine Santucci, Swapna Venogopal Ramaswamy SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Reuters; NASA Earth Observatory; NOAA, National Weather Service
