S&P 500 few points away from record high it hit in February
A mixed batch of economic data failed to stop the S&P from pushing within a striking distance of a record high, with Treasury yields falling alongside the dollar amid growing bets on Fed rate cuts this year.
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The S& topped 6,100 and is now just a few points away from its Feb 19 closing peak.
Banks led gains as an analyst said that as long as there's no recession, it's "game on" for the stocks. Wall Street's renewed rally reflects confidence in AI-fuelled expansion and economic resilience, with investors setting aside geopolitical fears.
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Time of India
20 minutes ago
- Time of India
Market bets on a more dovish Fed as Trump eyes Powell's replacement
The gulf between where the Federal Reserve projects interest rates will be by the end of 2026 and the more aggressive cutting financial markets expect by then is partly due to the expectation that U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell will be replaced by somebody more dovish next year, investors said. They, however, cautioned against assuming that a change of guard at the Fed would necessarily deliver as much policy easing as markets and U.S. President Donald Trump expect. In new economic projections released last week, Fed policymakers penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts by December 2026. That's two cuts short of the roughly 125 basis points of easing that fed funds futures suggest. The fed funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight lending, and serves as the Fed's main policy lever. It has stood in the 4.25%-4.50% range since the last easing in December. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 점점 커지는 모공들, 헛돈 쓰지말고 집에서 이렇게 해보세요 미그닥 Two of the projected quarter-percentage-point cuts were for 2025, with one more next year. While the difference stems from several factors, including expectations for how Trump's tariffs will affect the economy and inflation, hopes for a more accommodative Fed chief are part of the mix, investors said. "Powell's term is up in May, and he could be replaced by someone super friendly to the administration," Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital in Chicago. Live Events "I think this is probably a bigger factor than a lot of investors believe," Ablin said. Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision isn't imminent, a person familiar with the White House's deliberations said on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC any move to name a "shadow" chair would be ineffective. On Monday, traders in futures tracking the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), another key overnight rate, pushed the implied yield of futures contracts maturing in December 2026 65 basis points (bps) below those expiring in December 2025, the most negative that spread has ever been. This development shows that a deeper economic slowdown than expected is also being priced in. Powell told Congress this week that higher tariffs could boost inflation this summer, and that the U.S. central bank isn't rushing to cut rates. Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts , said on Tuesday that U.S. rates should be lowered by at least two to three percentage points. On Wednesday, he called Powell "terrible" in his latest attack on the central bank chief and said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. "The administration is now laying the groundwork - including with the 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' - to turbocharge economic, job, and investment growth, and it's high time for monetary policy to complement this agenda and support America's economic resurgence," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell's replacement by September or October, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Such a move would mean Powell would have a "shadow" for possibly the last six meetings of his tenure. A battered dollar took another beating on Thursday as investors fretted over fresh signs of an erosion in U.S. central bank independence. Still, such a move would back the market's more dovish view on future rate cuts. "It's a reasonable thesis that Trump will put up a person that will be more amenable to lower rates," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. FED INDEPENDENCE According to online prediction market Polymarket, the top candidates to replace Powell are Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh , White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Judy Shelton, a former Trump pick for the Fed's Board of Governors whose nomination was withdrawn during the Biden administration. Another prediction site, Kalshi, lists Waller as having the best chance to be nominated, closely followed by Warsh. Waller recently said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July. Meanwhile, Warsh suggested last month a possible pathway to lower policy rates and criticized the Fed's conduct of monetary policy. Still, investors warned that the head of the Fed is only one of 12 voting members at the central bank's monetary policy meetings. Part of the role is to build consensus with a large group of policymakers, making excessive reliance on that person's ability to deliver lower rates risky. "Obviously the chair has a very big influence on what the committee does, but the chair is not the committee," Siebert Financial's Malek said. "The chair will always try to seek a consensus," he said. Nor is it a given that the next Fed chief would risk the central bank's independence. "The most important part about the Fed is its neutrality," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "For the next Fed chair to get appointed, yes, you want to appease the president to get that nomination. But you still have to get everyone in that room to be behind a common narrative," Woods said. A rate-cutting trajectory not backed by data would hurt the next Fed chief's image, analysts said. "Whoever is appointed may have a cloud cast over his or her term that President Trump is pulling the strings," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. "I'm not too worried that we're going back to a period where the chair is in the pocket of the president, like under (President Richard) Nixon."
Mint
28 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian stock market: 10 key things that changed for market overnight - Gift Nifty, US GDP, gold prices to weak dollar
Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Friday, following a rally in global markets as the Israel-Iran ceasefire continued to hold. Asian markets traded mostly higher, while the US stock market rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq now within striking distance of all-time highs. On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended higher for the third straight session, with the Nifty 50 jumping to a 9-month high of above 25,500. The Sensex surged 1,000.36 points, or 1.21%, to close at 83,755.87, while the Nifty 50 settled 304.25 points, or 1.21%, higher at 25,549.00. 'After consolidating for over five weeks, markets have finally resumed their uptrend, and we expect Nifty 50 to gradually move towards its record high, with a possible pause around the 25,700 – 25,800 zone. We continue to favor rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, financials, auto, and realty, while recommending a selective approach for other segments,' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Here are key global market cues for Sensex today: Asian markets traded mostly higher on Friday tracking overnight rally on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.07%, while the Topix index gained 1.05%. South Korea's Kospi index and Kosdaq were flat. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a slightly higher opening. Gift Nifty was trading around 25,715 level, a premium of nearly 100 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices. US stock market ended higher on Thursday after a slew of economic indicators appeared to support the US Federal Reserve rate cut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to 43,386.84, while the S&P 500 gained 48.86 points, or 0.80%, to 6,141.02. The Nasdaq Composite closed 194.36 points, or 0.97%, higher at 20,167.91. Nvidia share price rose 0.51%, Amazon shares gained 2.42%, Microsoft stock price advanced 1.05%, while Micron shares dropped 1.0%. Nike share price ended 2.81% higher, and jumped 10.73% after market hours. US economy contracted a bit faster than previously thought in the first quarter. Gross domestic product decreased at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate last quarter, the third estimate of GDP showed. It was previously reported to have dropped at a 0.2% pace. The economy grew at a 2.4% rate in the fourth quarter. The US trade deficit in goods increased in May amid a decline in exports. The goods trade gap widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion last month. Exports of goods dropped $9.7 billion to $179.2 billion. Goods imports were little changed at $275.8 billion. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended June 21. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 245,000 claims for the latest week. Orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods rebounded sharply in May. Durable goods orders jumped 16.4% last month after a revised 6.6% decline in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders increasing 8.5% after a previously reported 6.3% decrease in April. Gold prices fell and were poised for a second consecutive weekly loss. Spot gold price declined 0.4% to $3,314.27 per ounce. Bullion was down 1.6% so far this week. US gold futures fell 0.6% to $3,327. US dollar sank to its lowest level in more than three years amid growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. The U.S. dollar index was down nearly 0.43% on the session and more than 10% for the year. The dollar fell 0.72% to 144.2 Japanese yen. The euro was up 0.51% at $1.1719, while Sterling rose 0.62% to $1.3748. Crude oil prices traded higher, but were set to fall this week with the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding and easing concerns over Middle East supply risks. Brent crude futures rose 0.50% to $68.07 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.51% to $65.57 a barrel. The benchmarks were set to fall about 12% for the week. (With inputs from Reuters) Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
39 minutes ago
- Time of India
Wall Street ends higher on rate cuts, S&P 500, Nasdaq miss record highs
Wall Street closed higher on Thursday, nudging the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq nearer to record closing highs as the Israel-Iran ceasefire continued to hold and a raft of economic indicators appeared to support the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs this year. All three major U.S. stock indexes advanced in a broad rally which placed them on track for weekly gains. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Secure Your Child's Future with Strong English Fluency Planet Spark Learn More Undo The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are now within a hair's breadth of all-time closing highs, and as the seconds ticked down to the closing bell, it looked as if those records could be reached. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. "Clearly, the pull forward of rate cuts into 2025 is one of the more significant factors" of the market's price action, says Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Billings, Montana. "Expectations now point to three rate cuts this year." Bank stocks outperformed after the Fed unveiled a proposal to relax its leverage rules, which would ease the capital that big banks are required to hold against relatively low-risk assets. Live Events The S&P 500 banks index advanced 1.6%. "This administration came in promising deregulation," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "And this is not just an example of that, but kind of a signpost that there could be more to come." Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin cautioned against taking options off the table amid ongoing economic uncertainty, but added that he did not expect tariffs to be "as inflationary as a lot of people worry about." A muted tariff effect could help make the case for a rate cut this fall, according to San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday she's leaning toward a rate cut later this year amid an uncertain economic outlook. These remarks follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day congressional testimony, at which he reiterated the central bank's wait-and-see policy stance with respect to rate cuts and economic tariff effects. Financial markets are currently pricing in nearly a 21% likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction the Fed Funds target rate at the July Fed meeting, and more than a 75% probability that this year's first rate cut will come in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. "As we look at economic data , including the labor market, economic activity and price levels, we see that some additional easing is appropriate through the end of this year," Northey added. "The question remains around both magnitude and importantly timing of the first cut." Last week, the Fed released its updated Summary of Economic Projections, which showed policymakers anticipate cutting the key policy rate by about half a percentage point by year-end. A spate of economic data showed first quarter GDP contracted more than previously reported due to weaker than expected consumer spending, while ongoing jobless claims reaching multi-year highs, suggesting potential cracks appearing in the labor market. On the other hand, new orders for durable goods and pending home sales provided robust surprises to the upside. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to 43,386.84, the S&P 500 gained 48.86 points, or 0.80%, to 6,141.02 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points, or 0.97%, to 20,167.91. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services enjoyed the largest percentage gains, while real estate was the biggest laggard. Micron forecast better-than-expected fourth quarter revenue late Wednesday. Even so, the tech firm's shares dropped 1.0%. Copper prices jumped to a three-month high, boosting miners Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N and Southern Copper SCCO.N by 6.8% and 7.8%, respectively. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 4.76-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 338 new highs and 66 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 3,128 stocks rose and 1,359 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.3-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 79 new highs and 67 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.22 billion shares, compared with the 18.10 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
