Iran's regime is 'quite weak', hard to see Tehran having the last say as escalation window narrows: CFR
Council on Foreign Relations' Steven Cook warns against underestimating Israeli ingenuity, saying years of preparation may allow strikes on Iran's Fordow site even without U.S. bunker busters
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Newsweek
27 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Israel's Missile Defenses Running Short as Iran Fires Hypersonics: Report
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Israel is running low on its supply of Arrow missile interceptors just as Iran unleashes hypersonic missiles in its latest attack, according to The Wall Street Journal. Citing a senior U.S. official, the report said American defense leaders have known for months about the shortfall, raising urgent questions about Israel's ability to defend itself from high-speed, long-range threats. The revelation coincides with Iran's announcement that it fired Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles at Israel on Wednesday. The missiles, which travel at more than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver mid-flight, pose a serious challenge to even advanced missile defense systems. Newsweek has reached out to the Israel Defense Forces and Iran's foreign ministry. Why It Matters Israel's Arrow system is a key part of its multi-layered missile defense, built to intercept long-range ballistic threats. A shortage of interceptors during the sixth day of active conflict with Iran could leave major population centers increasingly vulnerable—especially as Iran now deploys faster, more evasive hypersonic missiles. The introduction of such advanced weapons has reshaped the threat landscape. As both nations trade strikes and diplomacy stalls, military readiness—and the ability to intercept incoming fire—has become a defining factor in the escalating confrontation. Iranian missiles face off israeli interceptive missiles over Beirut, Lebanon. June 14 2025. Iranian missiles face off israeli interceptive missiles over Beirut, Lebanon. June 14 2025. Nael Chahine/AP Photo What to Know The shortage of Arrow interceptors stems from intense missile barrages in recent days combined with limited production capacity. A senior U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal that Washington has been aware of the issue for months and has responded by deploying additional American assets across land, sea, and air in the region. However, the official did not specify how many interceptors remain or when production might replenish Israel's stockpile. Defensive Missile System It [Israel] will expand its target sets to increase the pain and force the Iranian regime to change its behavior. Seth Krummrich, Retired U.S. Army Colonel Jointly developed by Israel and the U.S., the Arrow system defends against long-range ballistic threats with layered coverage beyond Patriot and David's Sling. Arrow 2 targets missiles in the upper atmosphere, while Arrow 3 intercepts them in space. Both use high-speed "hit-to-kill" technology and support Israel's broader missile shield, including Iron Dome. Hypersonic Retaliation Yet hypersonic missiles like Iran's Fattah-1 pose a new and serious challenge. Their extreme speed—over five times the speed of sound—combined with mid-flight maneuverability makes them far harder to track and intercept, even for advanced systems like Arrow. Iran said it had fired Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles at Tel Aviv, saying the strikes "shook the shelters" across the city. Iran state media released video footage of the launches, highlighting Tehran's expanding military capabilities. Alongside the hypersonic missiles, Iran also deployed a "swarm of drones" targeting Israeli territory, further complicating the defense landscape. Video released by Iran's IRGC show the moment Iran launched missiles against Israel Follow — Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) June 18, 2025 Israel retaliated with strikes on weapons factories and a centrifuge plant in Tehran, after warning civilians to evacuate the area. The IDF also intercepted two drones over the Dead Sea. Though casualties were minimal, the use of advanced missiles and drones marks a sharp escalation in the conflict's intensity and sophistication. US Weighs Options Amid the intensifying conflict, President Donald Trump reiterated his support for Israel but signaled growing impatience with Tehran. While the administration has so far avoided direct military engagement, U.S. officials confirmed that the USS Nimitz carrier strike group has been deployed to the region, and Trump convened his National Security Council to discuss possible options. No decision on intervention has been announced, but officials say military involvement remains under consideration. The developments came as Iran claimed to have struck what it described as a Mossad intelligence facility inside Israel, escalating tensions further. Rescue team work at the site where a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, June 16, 2025. Rescue team work at the site where a missile launched from Iran struck Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, June 16, 2025. Baz Ratner/AP Photo What People Are Saying Seth Krummrich, Retired U.S. Army Colonel and Vice President at Global Guardian told Newsweek: "Initially, Israel focused primarily on military and nuclear targets. If Israel does not achieve the effects it wants, it will expand its target sets to increase the pain and force the Iranian regime to change its behavior. I expect to see expanded targeting of governmental facilities and oil and gas infrastructure to continue to increase the pain level to an intolerable level that Iran has to negotiate. Iran will continue to launch ballistic missile strikes against any Israeli targets with the goal of wearing down Israel's will and reducing Israel's interceptor stockpile to do more damage." What Happens Next As missile technology evolves and tensions rise, Israel's ability to restore interceptor supplies may shape not only the conflict's trajectory but the broader stability of the region. Whether the U.S. remains on the sidelines or steps in more directly could depend on how long Israel can hold the line.
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Israeli warplanes hammer Iran's capital as retaliatory missile barrages diminish
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry issued a warning Wednesday that an American intervention in the ongoing Israeli strikes targeting his country would spark 'an all-out war.' Baghaei said: 'Any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region.' President Donald Trump initially distanced himself from Israel's attacks on Iran but has hinted at greater U.S. involvement, saying he wants something 'much bigger' than a ceasefire. The U.S. has also sent more warplanes to the region. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli warplanes pounded Iran's capital overnight and into Wednesday, hitting a facility used to make uranium centrifuges and another that made missile components, the Israeli military said. It said it intercepted 10 missiles overnight as Iran's retaliatory barrages diminish. Israel is carrying out blistering attacks on Iran's nuclear program and military sites that began with a surprise bombardment on Friday. A Washington-based Iranian human rights group said at least 585 people, including 239 civilians, have been killed and more than 1,300 wounded. Shops have been closed across Iran's capital, Tehran, including in its famed Grand Bazaar, as people wait in gas lines and pack roads leading out of the city to escape the onslaught. Iran has fired some 400 missiles and hundreds of drones in retaliatory strikes that have killed at least 24 people in Israel and wounded hundreds. Some have hit apartment buildings in central Israel, causing heavy damage, and air raid sirens have repeatedly forced Israelis to run for shelter. Iran has fired fewer missiles in each of its barrages, with just a handful launched on Wednesday. It has not explained the decline, but it comes after Israel targeted many Iranian launchers. All eyes are on Washington, where President Donald Trump initially distanced himself from the Israeli attacks but has hinted at greater U.S. involvement, saying he wants something 'much bigger' than a ceasefire. The U.S. has also sent more warplanes to the region. Casualties mount in Iran The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists said it had identified 239 of those killed in Israeli strikes as civilians and 126 as security personnel. The group, which also provided detailed casualty figures during 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, crosschecks local reports against a network of sources it has developed in the country. Iran has not been publishing regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimized casualties in the past. Its last update, issued Monday, put the death toll at 224 people killed and 1,277 others wounded. A major explosion could be heard around 5 a.m. in Tehran Wednesday morning, following other explosions that boomed earlier in the predawn darkness. Authorities in Iran offered no acknowledgement of the attacks, which has become increasingly common as the Israeli airstrikes have intensified. At least one strike appeared to target Tehran's eastern neighborhood of Hakimiyeh, where the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has an academy. No signs of backing down Israel says it launched the strikes to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, after talks between the United States and Iran over a diplomatic resolution had made little visible progress over two months but were still ongoing. Trump has said Israel's campaign came after a 60-day window he set for the talks. Iran long has insisted its nuclear program was peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. U.S. intelligence agencies have said they did not believe Iran was actively pursuing the bomb. As the conflict entered a sixth day, neither side showed signs of backing down. 'We will show the Zionists no mercy,' Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in a post on his official X account. 'A storm is passing over Tehran,' Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz posted. 'This is how dictatorships collapse.' Trump demands Iranian surrender Trump demanded 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER' in a post on social media and warned Khamenei that the U.S. knows where he is hiding but that there were no plans to kill him 'at least not for now.' Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the evolving situation over the phone on Tuesday, according to a White House official. Iran offered no immediate response to the president's posts, but the country's military leaders vowed that Israel would soon see more attacks. 'The operations carried out so far have been solely for the purpose of warning and deterrence,' Gen. Abdul Rahim Mousavi, the commander in chief of Iran's army, said in a video. 'The punishment operation will be carried out soon.' Israel welcomes first repatriation flights Israelis began returning to the country on flights for the first time since the country's international airport shut down at the start of the conflict. Two flights from Larnaca, Cyprus, landed at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport on Wednesday morning, said Lisa Dvir, an airport spokesperson. Israel closed its airspace to commercial flights because of the ballistic missile attacks, leaving tens of thousands of Israelis stranded abroad. The conflict has disrupted flight patterns across the region.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
Map Shows U.S. Middle East Travel Warnings as Possible Iran War Looms
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A map of U.S. State Department travel warnings for the Middle East shows Americans being advised to steer clear of many of the region's countries or to show extra caution, with Iran and Israel at war and the possibility of a looming U.S. attack on Iran. A Level 4: "Do Not Travel" update for Israel was issued for Israel on June 16 as it came under heavy missile bombardment from Iran. Newsweek contacted the State Department for comment. Why It Matters The travel warnings show the high levels of tension across the region and risk for travelers of being caught in open conflict or of falling victim to attacks by U.S.-designated terrorist groups. Those risks are potentially rising as signs grow from U.S. President Donald Trump and from military deployments that the United States itself could become involved in attacks on Iran and its nuclear program. Travel advisories are not only a warning for travelers, but are also taken into account by insurance companies, meaning that those who travel to the highest-risk areas are not insured unless they take out expensive specialist cover. What To Know Israel has now joined the highest level of State Department advisories against all travel following the missile barrages fired by Iran since Israel launched airstrikes on its military establishment, nuclear program and other targets late last week. The U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has been closed. Iran has fired some 400 missiles towards Israel along with drones in retaliation for the Israeli attacks, according to The Associated Press. At least 24 people have been killed in Israel, it said, while quoting a Washington-based Iranian rights group as saying at least 585 people had been killed in attacks on Iran. "Do not travel due to armed conflict, terrorism, and civil unrest," says the updated travel advice for Israel. "The security situation in Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem is unpredictable, and U.S. citizens are reminded to remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness as security incidents, including mortar and rocket fire and armed UAV intrusions and missiles, can take place without warning." Travel Warnings Israel joins countries in the region that had long been on the list of those where all travel is advised against, including Iran itself, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya and Yemen. In the next category down of Level 3: Reconsider travel is Egypt, a U.S. ally and also a popular tourist destination with archaeological attractions such as the pyramids and beach resorts. Much of the region falls in the category of Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution. That includes countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — which actually has five of the top 10 safest cities in the world according to the Numbeo safety index. Only two countries fall into the lowest risk category of "Exercise Normal Precautions": Qatar and Kuwait, both of which have U.S. military installations. What People Are Saying U.S. State Department: "The Department of State has no higher priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas. Information contained in these advisories reflects an assessment of threats only insofar as they may impact U.S. citizens, nationals, and legal residents." What Happens Next The security situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly and much will depend on whether the United States also gets involved in the war with Iran, which could raise a greater risk for U.S. bases and citizens across the region.
