Rupee's modest uptick runs into dollar bids from importers, foreign banks
The rupee was at 86.4675 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:20 a.m. IST, up slightly from its close at 86.5150 in the previous session.
The local currency has weakened about 0.8% over July so far, hit by outflows from local equities alongside uncertainty about the timing of a U.S.-India trade deal, even as economies such as the European Union, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam secured deals.
Over the weekend, the U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods.
The EU also plans to invest some $600 billion in the United States and dramatically increase its purchases of U.S. energy and military equipment, President Donald Trump said on Sunday.
The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar after the deal was announced. Meanwhile, the dollar index was little changed at 97.6 on the day while Asian currencies were trading mixed.
The rupee is likely to hold an 86.38-86.57 range on Monday and trade with a slight depreciation bias, a trader at a state-run bank said.
India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN), opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab, nudged higher on Monday but are nursing losses of over 2.5% each on the month so far, troubled by tepid quarterly earnings and foreign portfolio outflows.
A lack of strong foreign inflows, the Reserve Bank of India's ongoing unwinding of short forward dollar positions, and a quiet return to FX reserve accumulation have all weighed on the rupee, said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
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Reuters
4 minutes ago
- Reuters
EU's $250 billion-per-year spending on US energy is unrealistic
BRUSSELS/HOUSTON, July 28 (Reuters) - The European Union's pledge to buy $250 billion of U.S. energy supplies per year is unrealistic because it would require the redirection of most U.S. energy exports towards Europe and the EU has little control over the energy its companies import. The U.S. and EU struck a framework trade deal on Sunday, which will impose 15% U.S. tariffs on most EU goods. The deal included a pledge for the EU to spend $250 billion annually on U.S. energy - imports of oil, liquefied natural gas and nuclear technology - for the next three years. Total U.S. energy exports to all buyers worldwide in 2024 amounted to $318 billion, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. Of that, the EU imported a combined $76 billion of U.S. petroleum, LNG and solid fuels such as coal in 2024, according to Reuters' calculations based on Eurostat data. More than tripling those imports was unrealistic, analysts said. Arturo Regalado, senior LNG analyst at Kpler, said the scope of the energy trade envisioned in the deal "exceeds market realities." "U.S. oil flows would need to fully redirect towards the EU to reach the target, or the value of LNG imports from the US would need to increase sixfold," Regalado said. There is strong competition for U.S. energy exports as other countries need the supplies - and have themselves pledged to buy more in trade deals. Japan agreed to a "major expansion of U.S. energy exports" in its U.S. trade deal last week, the White House said in a statement. South Korea has also indicated interest in investing and purchasing fuel from an Alaskan LNG project as it seeks a trade deal. Competition for U.S. energy could drive up benchmark U.S. oil and gas prices and encourage U.S. producers to favour exports over domestic supply. That could make fuel and power costs more expensive, which would be a political and economic headache for U.S. and EU leaders. Neither side has detailed what was included in the energy deal - or whether it covered items such as energy services or parts for power grids and plants. The EU estimates its member countries' plans to expand nuclear energy would require hundreds of billions of euros in investments by 2050. Its nuclear reactor-related imports, however, totalled just 53.3 billion euros in 2024, trade data shows. The energy pledge reflected the EU's analysis of how much U.S. energy supply it could accommodate, a senior EU official said, but that would depend on investments in U.S. oil and LNG infrastructure, European import infrastructure, and shipping capacity. "These figures, again, are not taken out of thin air. So yes, they require investments," said the senior official, who declined to be named. "Yes, it will vary according to the energy sources. But these are figures which are reachable." There was no public commitment to the delivery, the official added, because the EU would not buy the energy - its companies would. Private companies import most of Europe's oil, while a mix of private and state-run companies import gas. The European Commission can aggregate demand for LNG to negotiate better terms, but cannot force companies to buy fuel. That is a commercial decision. "It's just unrealistic," ICIS analysts Andreas Schröder and Ajay Parmar said in written comments to Reuters. "Either Europe pays a super high non-market reflective price for U.S. LNG or it takes way too much LNG volumes, more than it can cope with." The United States is already the EU's top supplier of LNG and oil, shipping 44% of EU LNG needs and 15.4% of its oil in 2024, according to EU data. Raising imports to the target would require a U.S. LNG expansion way beyond what is planned through 2030, said Jacob Mandel, research lead at Aurora Energy Research. "You can add on capacity," Mandel said. "But if you're talking about the scale that would be necessary to meet these targets, the $250 billion, then it's not really feasible." Europe could buy $50 billion more of U.S. LNG annually as supply increases, he said. The EU has said it could import more U.S. energy as its plan advances to end Russian oil and gas imports by 2028. The EU imported around 94 million barrels of Russian oil last year - 3% of the bloc's crude purchases - and 52 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian LNG and gas, according to EU data. For comparison, the EU imported 45 bcm of U.S. LNG last year. Higher EU fuel purchases would, however, run counter to forecasts for EU demand to decline as it shifts to clean energy, analysts said. "There is no major need for the EU to import more oil from the U.S., in fact, its oil demand peaked a number of years ago," Schröder and Parmar said. ($1 = 0.8571 euro)
Daily Mail
4 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Trump warns against second independence vote for 75 years
Donald Trump has signalled that there should not be another Scottish independence referendum until at least 2064 because countries 'can't go through that too much'. The US President said he thought there had been an agreement not to hold a rerun of the 2014 separation vote for at least another 50 years. His comments came during the third full day of his visit to Scotland as he met Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at his Turnberry golf course, and just hours after John Swinney claimed that an SNP majority in next year's Holyrood election would be a mandate for another independence referendum. During a lengthy press conference with the Prime Minister, Mr Trump also said he wants Scotland to thrive as he vowed to consider removing punishing tariffs on Scotch whisky and made the case for more North Sea drilling. He also directly pressed Sir Keir Starmer to take advantage of the North Sea's oil reserves. When asked about the SNP's plan to demand another independence referendum if it wins a majority at next year's Holyrood elections, Mr Trump said he had predicted the No vote the day before the 2014 referendum when he was visiting his first golf course at the Menie Estate in Aberdeenshire. He added: 'I do say that when they made that deal (to hold a referendum) somebody said that it was - and I remember this very distinctly, I said 'could they do this all the time?'. 'There was a little bit of a restriction, like 50 or 75 years before you could take another vote because, you know, a country can't go through that too much.' SNP figures including Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon had said at the time the vote was a 'once in a generation opportunity'. Mr Trump made the comments ahead of Mr Swinney attending a dinner with him in Aberdeenshire last night and the opening of his second course at Menie today (TUE). Sir Keir said: 'I believe in a stronger Scotland in a better United Kingdom and I think that at a time like this when it is quite clear there is uncertainty and volatility around the world, the strength of the United Kingdom together is very important for all four nations, very important for Scotland. 'That should be our priority, that should be our focus - not on the politics which feels like the politics of yesteryear now at a time like this. 'I think that the First Minister should probably focus more on his delivery in Scotland than on his constitutional issues, and we might have a better health service in Scotland. 'At a time like this, I think the United Kingdom is always stronger as four nations, I think that is better for all four nations.' It comes as Mr Swinney was condemned for an 'absurd' assertion that a generation has passed since Scots rejected independence. In a desperate attempt to relaunch the SNP's failing bid to break up the UK, he has claimed a majority for the party in next year's Holyrood elections would be a mandate for another referendum. He was accused of trying to silence SNP critics and was mocked for the claim that a generation has passed less than 11 years since Scots voted decisively to stay in the UK. Then First Minister Alex Salmond and his successor Nicola Sturgeon previously described the 2014 referendum as a 'once in a generation opportunity'. After unveiling the latest bid to secure independence, Mr Swinney yesterday said: 'There is fundamentally a democratic issue here that people in Scotland in a voluntary union must be able to choose their own democratic future, and that was accepted after the SNP won a majority in the Scottish Parliament, on our own, in 2011. 'I am making the point that, having established that precedent, we must be in a position to be able to give the people of Scotland the choice about their constitutional future. 'There is now, by the time we get to 2030, going to be a million people who were not eligible to vote in the last referendum in 2014. 'A generation has now passed and I want to make sure that people in Scotland who want our country to have a choice about independence are able to do so in a democratic and legitimate fashion that can enable the establishment of an independent country as a consequence of a Yes vote. 'And the way to do that is the way we did it in 2011, which is to elect a majority of SNP MSPs to the Scottish Parliament.' In the 2014 vote, 55 per cent of Scots voted No and 45 per cent Yes. Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said: 'It's patently absurd - and John Swinney knows it - to claim that 11 years constitutes 'a generation'. 'John Swinney is like a broken record. In a bid to silence internal critics of his weak leadership, he has thrown diehard nationalists some more red meat on the one issue they all agree on: independence. 'Ordinary Scots are sick and tired of the SNP's obsession with breaking up the UK. The public want John Swinney to focus on fixing the damage his government has done in decimating essential services such as schools and the NHS at the same time as making Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK.' Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'This SNP government has lost its way and ran out of ideas - while one in six Scots suffer on an NHS waiting list.
The Guardian
6 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Australia politics live: Albanese faces stiff test in US trade talks; Victoria brings tougher bail laws to parliament
Update: Date: 2025-07-28T20:33:00.000Z Title: EU deal means Australia unlikely to secure US tariff exemption, experts say Content: Australia's hopes for a total tariff exemption are dwindling as Donald Trump's deals with other nations lay bare the limits of trade negotiations, Australian Associated Press reports. Since pushing his tariff deadline to 1 August, the US president has struck trade agreements with Japan, and overnight, the European Union – much to the disgust of French ministers who think the EU has caved in to Trump. While the deals landed on tariffs lower than Mr Trump's initial threats, both were higher than the 10% baseline levy imposed on Australian goods. No US trading partner has managed to completely dodge tariffs on their items. So it seems unlikely that Anthony Albanese and his trade minister, Don Farrell, can negotiate their way out of any tariffs at all. 'Trump really does see tariffs as something that is good in themselves,' University of Sydney US politics expert David Smith told AAP. 'Even though there were a lot of hopes at the beginning of this process that countries could negotiate their way out of tariffs altogether – that's not really happening.' Australia, like other nations, might instead have to pivot approaches and try to strategically position its industries within these deals. Update: Date: 2025-07-28T20:26:52.000Z Title: Welcome Content: Good morning and welcome to our live politics blog. I'm Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it'll be Krishani Dhanji with the main action. Anthony Albanese could find it hard to negotiate a tariff-free trade deal with the US after the European Union became the latest American trading partner to settle for higher tariffs on exports to the world's biggest market. One expert warns today that it's looking increasingly unlikely that Labor will cut a tariff-free deal. More coming up. Four banks will refund charges to low-income customers after the financial regulator found that a much higher number of Australians were paying too much than originally thought. More on that shortly. And Labor is going to introduce new bail laws to the Victorian parliament which it says are the 'toughest' in the country, despite opposition from legal, First Nations and human rights groups. More on that too, in a few minutes.
