
Small Business Earnings Rebound, Yet Lag 2023 Levels: Biz2Credit
Here's the good news. Small business earnings rose 75% since January 2025. The increase comes despite President Trump's tariffs, which threatened to raise business costs and dampen consumer spending.
The data comes from Biz2Credit, a New York City-based online marketplace for small business financing that publishes a monthly Small Business Earnings Report. Biz2Credit analyzes key financial metrics, including annual revenue, operating expenses, business age, credit scores, approval rates, and funding rates. Its report draws on data from over 100,000 completed financing applications submitted between January 2022 and June 2025 through Biz2Credit's online funding platform.
But here's the bad news. Monthly earnings remain significantly below levels seen in the previous two years. According to Biz2Credit, average monthly earnings topped out at about $250,000 in the summer of 2023. By June 2024, that figure had dropped to $128,900. This June, the average was just $62,300.
Biz2Credit's data shows that small business earnings tend to be seasonal with summer being the most lucrative time of year. Factors such as holiday consumer spending, weather-dependent demand, and annual tax cycles often influence earnings patterns. This year, so far at least, has been no different.
The takeaway: While earnings have improved since the start of the year, small businesses are still worse off than they were in each of the prior two years.
Even so, the recent uptick isn't trivial. At a minimum, it signals that conditions aren't getting worse. For the moment at least. Though with on again, off again tariff negotiations, there's no guarantee of smooth sailing from here on out.
The earnings rise isn't the only reason for growing optimism among small businesses (the National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index fell by 0.2 in June, though at a 98.6 reading it remains higher than the gauge's 51-year average of 98). Biz2Credit points to President Trump's recently signed "Big Beautiful Bill," enacted on July 4, as a key confidence booster. Additionally, anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later this year are expected to support further improvement.
Biz2Credit CEO Rohit Arora says taxes have been a significant concern for small business operators. But, he adds, small businesses can now expect greater stability and predictability following the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill. In part, that's because the Big Beautiful Bill made the small business tax cuts passed in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. And that predictability may help sustain the earnings momentum that started back in January.
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The precious metal declined more than 2% to trade near $3,404 per ounce. Last Friday gold futures touched intraday record highs amid reports that imports of Swiss gold bars would not be exempt from tariffs. Later in the session the metal trimmed gains after the White House indicated it would clarify "misinformation about the tariffing of gold bars and other specialty products." stock falls 23% after lowering revenue guidance Inc. (AI) stock tumbled as much as 30% on Monday morning after the software company reported a steep sales miss and as its founder's health issues are spurring a search for a successor. Shares were down 23% in afternoon trading. The company released preliminary results late Friday showing revenue well below analysts' estimates as it undergoes a reorganization of its sales operation. Guidance for the fiscal first quarter also came in lighter than expected. Bloomberg reported that CEO Tom Siebel attributed what he called "completely unacceptable" results to recent health issues that prevented him from actively helping to sell the company's software. Several weeks ago, he said the company would begin to search for a successor. As Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi noted today, problems appear to be company-specific — not an indicator of the overall AI trade. "But I think now is probably the time to pivot away from some of the pure plays and go to more of bank shots on AI, and names like that would be in the industrials that, you know, aren't even tech stocks, but are benefiting from all of the infrastructure spending," John Campbell of Allsprings Global Investments said on Opening Bid. Read more here. Inc. (AI) stock tumbled as much as 30% on Monday morning after the software company reported a steep sales miss and as its founder's health issues are spurring a search for a successor. Shares were down 23% in afternoon trading. The company released preliminary results late Friday showing revenue well below analysts' estimates as it undergoes a reorganization of its sales operation. Guidance for the fiscal first quarter also came in lighter than expected. Bloomberg reported that CEO Tom Siebel attributed what he called "completely unacceptable" results to recent health issues that prevented him from actively helping to sell the company's software. Several weeks ago, he said the company would begin to search for a successor. As Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi noted today, problems appear to be company-specific — not an indicator of the overall AI trade. "But I think now is probably the time to pivot away from some of the pure plays and go to more of bank shots on AI, and names like that would be in the industrials that, you know, aren't even tech stocks, but are benefiting from all of the infrastructure spending," John Campbell of Allsprings Global Investments said on Opening Bid. Read more here. Bitcoin surges above $120,000, ethereum rises as investors pile into crypto Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged on Monday to trade near record highs as investor enthusiasm and momentum around crypto grew. The digital token reached $122,000 on Monday before easing to around $120,000. The gains come as inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown and public companies have been adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. Bitcoin wasn't the only cryptocurrency getting a bid; ethereum (ETH-USD) touched 2021 levels on Monday. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has surged roughly 190% since the April market lows. Companies have been adding ethereum to their balance sheets as a way to gain exposure to the tech infrastructure behind decentralized finance and digital assets, such as stablecoins. The move higher in crypto also comes as stocks hover near record highs on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September and President Trump's next Fed chair pick will likely bring looser monetary policy. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged on Monday to trade near record highs as investor enthusiasm and momentum around crypto grew. The digital token reached $122,000 on Monday before easing to around $120,000. The gains come as inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown and public companies have been adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. Bitcoin wasn't the only cryptocurrency getting a bid; ethereum (ETH-USD) touched 2021 levels on Monday. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has surged roughly 190% since the April market lows. Companies have been adding ethereum to their balance sheets as a way to gain exposure to the tech infrastructure behind decentralized finance and digital assets, such as stablecoins. The move higher in crypto also comes as stocks hover near record highs on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September and President Trump's next Fed chair pick will likely bring looser monetary policy. Intel stock jumps with CEO Lip-Bu Tan reportedly set to meet with President Trump Intel (INTC) stock jumped more than 4% ahead of CEO Lip-Bu Tan's reported visit to the White House after President Trump called for his resignation. Citing unnamed sources, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Tan is set to meet with Trump Monday to explain his personal and professional background and to propose ways that Intel and the government can collaborate. Intel did not immediately respond to Yahoo Finance's questions regarding the reported meeting. Read the full story here. Intel (INTC) stock jumped more than 4% ahead of CEO Lip-Bu Tan's reported visit to the White House after President Trump called for his resignation. Citing unnamed sources, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Tan is set to meet with Trump Monday to explain his personal and professional background and to propose ways that Intel and the government can collaborate. Intel did not immediately respond to Yahoo Finance's questions regarding the reported meeting. Read the full story here. Tesla stock rises as EV maker applies for electricity supply license in UK Tesla (TSLA) stock surged 3% on Monday after the EV maker applied for a license to provide electricity to UK households and businesses. Apart from making electric vehicles and robotaxis, Tesla also provides Megapack batteries. The company's energy business grew 30% year over year last quarter, accounting for its largest margins. If the electricity supply license application submitted to the UK energy regulator Ofgem is approved, Tesla would be allowed to compete with other energy firms in the region. Tesla (TSLA) stock surged 3% on Monday after the EV maker applied for a license to provide electricity to UK households and businesses. Apart from making electric vehicles and robotaxis, Tesla also provides Megapack batteries. The company's energy business grew 30% year over year last quarter, accounting for its largest margins. If the electricity supply license application submitted to the UK energy regulator Ofgem is approved, Tesla would be allowed to compete with other energy firms in the region. Micron jumps after memory chipmaker raises Q4 financial guidance Memory chipmaker Micron (MU) — which supplies its semiconductors to Nvidia (NVDA) to use in its products — saw its stock jump more than 4% Monday after raising its financial outlook for its fourth quarter, which ends Aug. 28. The company said it expects to see adjusted revenue of $11.1 billion to $11.3 billion, up from its prior projected range of $10.4 billion to $11 billion. Micron expects to report quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $2.78 to $2.92, more than its previous range of $2.35 to $2.65. "This revised guidance reflects improved pricing, particularly in DRAM, and strong execution," the company said in a statement. Micron's DRAM chips are one type of memory chip used in devices like personal computers and smartphones. Memory chipmaker Micron (MU) — which supplies its semiconductors to Nvidia (NVDA) to use in its products — saw its stock jump more than 4% Monday after raising its financial outlook for its fourth quarter, which ends Aug. 28. The company said it expects to see adjusted revenue of $11.1 billion to $11.3 billion, up from its prior projected range of $10.4 billion to $11 billion. Micron expects to report quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $2.78 to $2.92, more than its previous range of $2.35 to $2.65. "This revised guidance reflects improved pricing, particularly in DRAM, and strong execution," the company said in a statement. Micron's DRAM chips are one type of memory chip used in devices like personal computers and smartphones. Stocks steady at the open US stocks were steady at the open on Monday after the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notched two consecutive records last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) hovered above the flat line. Chip stocks were in focus Monday after Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) reportedly inked deals with the US government to sell their chips to China in exchange for sharing 15% of their revenues from the country. Nvidia shares fell less than 1% on Monday, while AMD shares lost over 1.5%. Looking ahead this week, investors are awaiting a key inflation reading and the upcoming summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin. US stocks were steady at the open on Monday after the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notched two consecutive records last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose nearly 0.1%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) hovered above the flat line. Chip stocks were in focus Monday after Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) reportedly inked deals with the US government to sell their chips to China in exchange for sharing 15% of their revenues from the country. Nvidia shares fell less than 1% on Monday, while AMD shares lost over 1.5%. Looking ahead this week, investors are awaiting a key inflation reading and the upcoming summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin. Paramount seals $7.7 billion exclusive US rights deal with UFC Paramount has agreed to a seven-year, $7.7 billion deal to become the exclusive US broadcaster of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). The agreement is Paramount's largest since David Ellison took over as chair and CEO last week, following the completion of Skydance's takeover of the company. Under the contract, Paramount will stream all 13 of UFC's marquee events and 30 Fight Nights annually on its streaming platform from 2026, with selected events also broadcast on CBS, the Financial Times reported. The FT reports: Read more here (subscription required). Paramount has agreed to a seven-year, $7.7 billion deal to become the exclusive US broadcaster of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). The agreement is Paramount's largest since David Ellison took over as chair and CEO last week, following the completion of Skydance's takeover of the company. Under the contract, Paramount will stream all 13 of UFC's marquee events and 30 Fight Nights annually on its streaming platform from 2026, with selected events also broadcast on CBS, the Financial Times reported. The FT reports: Read more here (subscription required). AMC tops revenue estimates as blockbuster titles boost theater attendance AMC (AMC) stock jumped 8% in premarket trading after the movie theater chain reported attendance in the second quarter grew nearly 26% as blockbusters drew in moviegoers. Reuters reports: Read more here. AMC (AMC) stock jumped 8% in premarket trading after the movie theater chain reported attendance in the second quarter grew nearly 26% as blockbusters drew in moviegoers. Reuters reports: Read more here. Nvidia, AMD stocks decline after chipmakers agree to pay US 15% cut of China chip sales Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) fell on Monday after the two companies agreed to pay the US government 15% of the revenue for certain chip sales to China. Nvidia stock was off by 0.4% premarket, while AMD stock dropped 1.4% as investors digested the unusual deal in which the chipmakers will essentially pay for export licenses. While the details are still being worked out, the chips in question reportedly include Nvidia's H20 AI chip and AMD's MI308 chips, which previously faced export controls from the Trump administration. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made the deal at the White House last Wednesday, the same day Apple (AAPL) agreed to increase its US investment to $600 billion, ostensibly to help the company avoid tariffs, as the Trump administration looks to monetize trade policy. An Nvidia spokesperson told Yahoo Finance: 'We follow rules the U.S. government sets for our participation in worldwide markets. While we haven't shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide. America cannot repeat 5G and lose telecommunication leadership. America's AI tech stack can be the world's standard if we race." As for other chip stocks, Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) shares rose, while Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) fell modestly. Read more here. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) fell on Monday after the two companies agreed to pay the US government 15% of the revenue for certain chip sales to China. Nvidia stock was off by 0.4% premarket, while AMD stock dropped 1.4% as investors digested the unusual deal in which the chipmakers will essentially pay for export licenses. While the details are still being worked out, the chips in question reportedly include Nvidia's H20 AI chip and AMD's MI308 chips, which previously faced export controls from the Trump administration. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made the deal at the White House last Wednesday, the same day Apple (AAPL) agreed to increase its US investment to $600 billion, ostensibly to help the company avoid tariffs, as the Trump administration looks to monetize trade policy. An Nvidia spokesperson told Yahoo Finance: 'We follow rules the U.S. government sets for our participation in worldwide markets. While we haven't shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide. America cannot repeat 5G and lose telecommunication leadership. America's AI tech stack can be the world's standard if we race." As for other chip stocks, Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) shares rose, while Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) fell modestly. Read more here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Earnings: (BBAI), (MNDY), Oklo (OKLO), Plug Power (PLUG) Economic calendar: No notable releases. Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Nvidia, AMD revenue deal brings 'monetization of US trade policy' Yahoo Finance poll: Americans face new, complex financial challenges Earnings live: stock tanks, AMC to report Debate over Fed rate cuts heats up: What to watch this week Fed's Bowman makes case for 3 interest rate cuts in 2025 Intel CEO to visit White House on Monday Citi strategists raise S&P 500 target on resilient earnings Bitcoin Nears Record as Treasury Investors Boost Crypto Market BofA poll shows record number of investors say stocks overvalued Lithium market soars as CATL shuts one of world's biggest mines Earnings: (BBAI), (MNDY), Oklo (OKLO), Plug Power (PLUG) Economic calendar: No notable releases. Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Nvidia, AMD revenue deal brings 'monetization of US trade policy' Yahoo Finance poll: Americans face new, complex financial challenges Earnings live: stock tanks, AMC to report Debate over Fed rate cuts heats up: What to watch this week Fed's Bowman makes case for 3 interest rate cuts in 2025 Intel CEO to visit White House on Monday Citi strategists raise S&P 500 target on resilient earnings Bitcoin Nears Record as Treasury Investors Boost Crypto Market BofA poll shows record number of investors say stocks overvalued Lithium market soars as CATL shuts one of world's biggest mines stock tanks after the company reports earnings stock plunged aorund 20% in premarket trading on Monday after the Israeli-based software company reported earnings. In the second quarter, reported earnings of $0.03 per share and revenue of $299 million. While revenue beat analyst expectations of $293 million, GAAP profits fell short, as Wall Street was looking for $0.20 per share, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors have been looking for signs that economic uncertainty is pushing companies to pull back their spending on technology and software. The company's operating loss fell to $11.6 million from $1.8 million a year ago, and the operating margin fell to negative 4% from 1% last year. Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here stock plunged aorund 20% in premarket trading on Monday after the Israeli-based software company reported earnings. In the second quarter, reported earnings of $0.03 per share and revenue of $299 million. While revenue beat analyst expectations of $293 million, GAAP profits fell short, as Wall Street was looking for $0.20 per share, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors have been looking for signs that economic uncertainty is pushing companies to pull back their spending on technology and software. The company's operating loss fell to $11.6 million from $1.8 million a year ago, and the operating margin fell to negative 4% from 1% last year. Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here US gold futures fall as traders await clarification on tariffs US gold futures (GC=F) in New York fell 2% as traders waited for the White House to clarify its tariff policy. Last week, the US Customs and Border agency surprised the market by ruling that 100oz and 1kg gold bars would face tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US gold futures (GC=F) in New York fell 2% as traders waited for the White House to clarify its tariff policy. Last week, the US Customs and Border agency surprised the market by ruling that 100oz and 1kg gold bars would face tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Target still in the bear camp Good WSJ story this morning on Target (TGT) and its many challenges, one of them finding its next CEO. I wrote more on this a couple months ago. I would expect an abysmal quarter (another one) from Target when it reports second quarter earnings on August 20. The company is not only dealing with operational challenges, but it has totally lost the value perception battle with Walmart. I don't see these dynamics changing this year, and maybe not until deep into 2026 provided an outside CEO is brought in to run a full assessment of the business. Good WSJ story this morning on Target (TGT) and its many challenges, one of them finding its next CEO. I wrote more on this a couple months ago. I would expect an abysmal quarter (another one) from Target when it reports second quarter earnings on August 20. The company is not only dealing with operational challenges, but it has totally lost the value perception battle with Walmart. I don't see these dynamics changing this year, and maybe not until deep into 2026 provided an outside CEO is brought in to run a full assessment of the business. Bitcoin near a fresh record Bitcoin looks to be breaking out of its recent trading range, nearing a fresh record this morning. There doesn't appear to be a clear catalyst for the pop today, though this Sunday X post from bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor may have stoked the bulls. It suggests he will continue to be a buyer of bitcoin — perhaps no surprise, but the crypto market likes to be coddled. "If you don't stop buying Bitcoin, you won't stop making Money," Saylor wrote. Bitcoin looks to be breaking out of its recent trading range, nearing a fresh record this morning. There doesn't appear to be a clear catalyst for the pop today, though this Sunday X post from bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor may have stoked the bulls. It suggests he will continue to be a buyer of bitcoin — perhaps no surprise, but the crypto market likes to be coddled. "If you don't stop buying Bitcoin, you won't stop making Money," Saylor wrote. crashing Shares of (AI) are getting crushed pre-market to the tune of 30%. And the rout is 100% deserved. Late Friday the company said it sees preliminary first fiscal quarter revenue of $70.2 million to $70.4 million, about 33% below the mid-point of its prior guidance for $100 million to $109 million. Sales would be down 19% from the prior year. The adjusted operating loss will be $57.7 million to $59.9 million, roughly twice the $23.5 million to $33.5 million loss that it had expected. I don't think there is anything to read into the AI trade here — this seems very company-specific, and tied to a sales reorg. Shares of (AI) are getting crushed pre-market to the tune of 30%. And the rout is 100% deserved. Late Friday the company said it sees preliminary first fiscal quarter revenue of $70.2 million to $70.4 million, about 33% below the mid-point of its prior guidance for $100 million to $109 million. Sales would be down 19% from the prior year. The adjusted operating loss will be $57.7 million to $59.9 million, roughly twice the $23.5 million to $33.5 million loss that it had expected. I don't think there is anything to read into the AI trade here — this seems very company-specific, and tied to a sales reorg.