Sell AbbVie Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?
AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Thursday, July 31, 2025. For event-driven traders, understanding historical stock performance around earnings announcements can be a valuable tool.
Over the past five years, ABBV has experienced a negative one-day return following its earnings announcements in 65% of instances. The median decline on these days was -1.3%, with a maximum one-day drop of -7.3%. While the actual results relative to consensus estimates will heavily influence the stock's immediate reaction, these historical patterns offer insights that could inform trading decisions. Traders can approach this event in two ways:
Current consensus estimates project AbbVie to report earnings of $2.91 per share on sales of $15.03 billion. This compares to earnings of $2.65 per share on sales of $14.46 billion in the same quarter last year.
From a fundamental perspective, AbbVie currently has a market capitalization of $333 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $57 billion in revenue, achieved $13 billion in operating profits, and reported a net income of $4.2 billion.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Also, see – Buy Or Sell SOFI Stock At $24?See earnings reaction history of all stocks
AbbVie's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
ABBV 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
ABBV Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like AbbVie, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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