Equinor Quarterly Profit Drops After Disruption at LNG Facility
Adjusted operating income after tax dropped to $1.74 billion, compared with $2.15 billion a year earlier, according to a statement from the company on Wednesday. That's below the average analyst estimate of $1.8 billion.
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If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. Crunching The Numbers We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$972.5m US$1.16b US$1.29b US$1.39b US$1.49b US$1.57b US$1.65b US$1.72b US$1.79b US$1.85b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x3 Est @ 10.88% Est @ 8.50% Est @ 6.83% Est @ 5.66% Est @ 4.85% Est @ 4.27% Est @ 3.87% Est @ 3.59% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1% US$899 US$991 US$1.0k US$1.0k US$1.0k US$984 US$954 US$920 US$884 US$846 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$9.5b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.9b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.1%– 2.9%) = US$37b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$37b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= US$17b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$26b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$57.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. 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We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for Tractor Supply SWOT Analysis for Tractor Supply Strength Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows. Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Specialty Retail market. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Next Steps: Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Tractor Supply, we've put together three further items you should look at: Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Tractor Supply we've flagged before making an investment in the company. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for TSCO's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Fehler beim Abrufen der Daten Melden Sie sich an, um Ihr Portfolio aufzurufen. 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