White Brits will become a MINORITY in the UK in less than 40 years, shock study warns
WHITE British people will become a minority in the UK in less than 40 years, a population study warns.
The current proportion of around 73 per cent will fall to 57 per cent by 2050, a migration report predicts, slipping below half by 2063.
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By the end of the century, just 33.7 per cent of the UK population will have no immigrant parents, falling to 28 per cent for under-40s, according to Professor Matt Goodwin.
His research, based on official current population data, also forecasts a sharp rise in people with immigrant backgrounds — from below 20 per cent today to 60.6 per cent by 2100.
Prof Goodwin, a right-wing commentator, said: 'By the end of the century, most of the people on these islands will not be able to trace their roots in this country back more than one or two generations.'
The share of UK-born people is also projected to collapse from 81 per cent today to 39 per cent.
The Muslim population could rise from seven per cent to 19.2 per cent.
Prof Goodwin said: 'This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture, and avoid the very real risk of us becoming what Sir Keir Starmer referred to in May as 'an island of strangers'.'
He argued these changes were likely to spark 'anxiety, concern and political opposition' among those who want to preserve the UK's 'symbols, traditions, culture and ways of life'.
It comes amid pressure to reduce record levels of legal and illegal migration.
Last month, Labour unveiled a new white paper proposing tighter rules on migrants living, working and studying in the country.
Earth population to 'peak' in 2080s as scientists share exact human count we'll hit before 'lower fertility' sparks fall
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The Herald Scotland
10 minutes ago
- The Herald Scotland
Reform and indy will be at the heart of our debate for years
Of course, by now you already know the result, so you'll know which of the following scenarios and their consequences are the most accurate. But let me start with what the national polls tell us ought to have happened, by-election peculiarities – which I'll come to – notwithstanding. The SNP should have won with around 33% of the vote, down significantly on the 46.2% it won in 2021, with Labour in a narrow second on around 28% of the vote. Reform should have come third with just under 20% of the vote, while the Conservatives should have collapsed to under 10% of the vote. The rest of the vote, around 10%, will have been split among the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and myriad minor parties and independents. But by-elections rarely work out this way, even when the national polls are accurate. Firstly, voters are more likely to have voted in protest than they are at national elections, which may well help Reform in this case. As Jamie, a service engineer from Hamilton, told a focus group run by More in Common, it's 'time to give someone else a chance,' even if he thinks Nigel Farage is an 'a***hole'. Read more by Mark McGeoghegan Secondly, turnout will likely have collapsed. In the Hamilton and Rutherglen West by-election in October 2023, turnout fell by 43% compared to the 2019 General Election. A similar decline here would see around 15,600 voters who would otherwise turn out in a national election stay at home instead. Given that voters turning out to vote Reform as a protest against both the SNP and Labour governments are likely to be more motivated than SNP and Labour voters, this may also advantage Reform. In fact, assuming predictions based on national polling would otherwise have been accurate, Reform's vote will only have to have been marginally more resilient for it to finish ahead of Labour and narrowly behind the SNP. Factor in that first peculiarity of by-election campaigns, and such a scenario is hardly far-fetched. On the eve of the by-election, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar accused the First Minister, John Swinney, and journalists of manufacturing Reform's competitiveness in the seat. Nothing could be further from the truth, and a Reform underperformance yesterday will have been more surprising than it coming second. It has demonstrated its strength in a succession of local by-elections, the latest of which saw it beat Labour to come second behind the SNP. Whether or not Reform came second yesterday, its performance will shape the narrative in Scottish politics going into next year's elections in conjunction with its UK-wide polling lead (it has led in 25 consecutive polls going back to the beginning of May) and strong results in recent local elections and Parliamentary by-elections in England. Ultimately, regardless of yesterday's result, the spectre of Nigel Farage looms over Scottish politics. There are three broad scenarios. Firstly, that Reform performed to its Scotland-wide polling, confirming that it is on course to win between 15 and 20 seats in next year's Scottish Parliament election. Secondly, that it did overperform, perhaps coming second, leading to the next 11 months to being dominated by the SNP seeking to present next year's elections as a choice between the SNP and Nigel Farage, and a bitter fight between Reform and Labour for status as the main challengers to the SNP. Thirdly, that it underperformed, in which case the SNP will be quick to emphasise divergence between Scottish and English politics. In any case, the SNP will use the prospect of a Reform government at Westminster to try to increase the salience of the constitutional question, attempting to return independence to the heart of the Scottish political agenda ahead of next year's elections and the following UK general election. It knows that that is its best bet for winning back pro-independence voters who have swung to Labour in recent years. Replacing Humza Yousaf with John Swinney may have stabilised the SNP's support, but the party not really recovered in any meaningful way. The longer Reform leads in UK-wide polls, the more likely that narrative will be to gain purchase among the independence-supporting electorate. Strong Reform showings in Scotland will reinforce the sense that they could win power in 2029; weak performances will emphasise the ways in which Scottish and English politics may be diverging. Both provide hooks for the SNP. The spectre of Nigel Farage looms large over Scottish politics (Image: PA) The bigger question is whether this leads to a change in the constitutional deadlock. Some recent polling suggests that support for independence may have edged up. Norstat recently recorded its first Yes leads in three years, finding Yes ahead by seven points in the wake of Reform's strong showing in the English local elections. Survation still has No ahead by two or three points, down from leads of seven or eight points a year ago. The data is not conclusive, and we should be cautious of hypotheticals around whether developments will change voters' minds – we had enough such polls around Brexit and Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister that never bore out. But the prominence of Reform UK and Nigel Farage in UK politics is a gift to the SNP and the independence movement, regardless of how they performed yesterday or how they perform north of the Border in the coming year. If Anas Sarwar is frustrated with his opponents' and the media's "obsession" with Reform UK, he should get used to that feeling – they'll be at the heart of Scottish political debate for years to come. Mark McGeoghegan is a Glasgow University researcher of nationalism and contentious politics and an Associate Member of the Centre on Constitutional Change. He can be found on BlueSky @
The Guardian
19 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Starmer hails Labour victory after surprise win in Hamilton byelection for Scottish parliament
Update: Date: 2025-06-06T07:40:06.000Z Title: Keir Starmer Content: Good morning. Assuming he was not still up at 1.36am, woke to good news this morning – Labour winning the byelection in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse for the Scottish parliament. It has gained the seat with a 7.4% swing from the SNP. This is a surprise. A week ago the SNP were press releasing a Norstat poll for the Times suggesting they were ahead by 33%, with Labour on 19% and Reform on 18%. And the bookies had the SNP in the lead too. Yesterday one firm had the SNP as firm favourites, followed by Reform, with odds of 11/1 available to anyone prepared to bet on Labour. Perhaps someone has made some good money. For the rest of us, this is a welcome reminder that opinion polls, and bookies' odds, are not always a good guide to results, particularly in byelections. Starmer was criticisised for not campaigning in Hamilton. But he did announce a big U-turn on the winter fuel payments while the campaign was taking place, and that may have helped get his candidate, Davy Russell, over the line. This morning Starmer posted this message on social media. Congratulations to @DavyRussell4HLS and the team on a fantastic victory. People in Scotland have once again voted for change. Next year there is a chance to turbo charge delivery by putting Labour in power on both sides of the border. I look forward to working with you. A win is a win, and this is good news for Labour. But, as the leading psephologist John Curtice has been telling the BBC this morning, the Reform UK vote is significant too. They came from nowhere to a strong third place, with 26% of the vote. The Conservatives, on 6%, only just avoided losing their deposit. Here is our overnight story by Libby Brooks, Rachel Keenan and Severin Carrell I will be posting more reaction to the result, and analysis, shortly. Here is the agenda for the day. 11am: Kemi Badenoch gives a speech where she will say she is 'increasingly of the view' that the UK should withdraw from European convention on human rights. 11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can't read all the messages BTL, but if you put 'Andrew' in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @ The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can't promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
The Guardian
34 minutes ago
- The Guardian
UK house prices fall by more than expected amid economic uncertainty
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