HSBC Braces for $1.6 Billion Hit in China Shakeup -- But Investors Are Getting a $3 Billion Surprise

Yahoo

29-04-2025

HSBC Holdings (NYSE:HSBC) is staring down a potential pretax loss of up to $1.6 billion after China's Finance Ministry announced a $69 billion recapitalization for four major state-owned banks, including Bank of Communications (BoCom). Following the capital injection, HSBC's stake in BoCom is expected to dilute from 19% to 16%, though CFO Pam Kaur emphasized it won't touch the bank's capital ratios. Despite the near-term accounting hit, management stressed that the move strengthens BoCom's CET1 ratio, positioning it to compete harder in a market still battling real estate woes and escalating US-China tensions.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with HSBC.
China's property sector slump and rising trade pressures continue to drag on the broader financial system, prompting Beijing to shore up its banking giants. BoCom posted a slim 0.9% profit growth last year, mainly driven by reduced credit impairment charges, even as net interest margins stayed under pressure. HSBC's CEO Georges Elhedery voiced support for the recapitalization, calling it a strategic positive that bolsters BoCom's ability to grow a critical move as asset quality risks across the Chinese banking sector remain stubbornly high.
Meanwhile, HSBC dropped stronger-than-expected Q1 numbers and rolled out a fresh $3 billion share buyback, aiming to steady investor nerves in a shaky market. Management also flagged that even under a scenario of sharply higher global tariffs, the direct hit to revenue would likely stay in the low single digits, with about $500 million in potential credit losses. Last year, HSBC already absorbed a $3 billion impairment tied to its original $1.75 billion investment in BoCom, underscoring the complex but enduring ties between Europe's biggest trade bank and China's evolving financial battlefield.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.