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India a bright spot for growth amid global volatility: N Chandrasekaran
N Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Consumer Products, has said in the company's annual report for FY25 that India remains one of the bright spots of economic growth amid a volatile global environment.
He said India's long-term growth is underpinned by strong demographic and economic fundamentals and the ongoing structural reforms.
'India's near-term macro outlook remains strong with stable growth expectation in 2025, falling inflation, and ongoing monetary easing. India's direct exposure to the US is limited as its goods exports to the US are just over 2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), one of the lowest among emerging markets,' he said in his address to the company's shareholders.
He added that consumer trends like premiumisation, health & wellness, and convenience are gathering pace and quick commerce has seen exponential growth. But physical distribution remains extremely relevant at the same time.
He also said in today's uncertain and complex global environment, companies need to stay agile and dynamic.
'The need for strong, resilient, and visible supply chains has never been more critical. Emerging technologies such as Gen AI, robotics, and blockchain are not just buzzwords but essential tools. The green energy transition globally is making notable progress, and this transition is driving substantial investment in technology, electric mobility, renewable power, hydrogen and sustainable fuel,' he added.
Chandrasekaran said that companies must include these trends in their strategies and foster a culture of agility and continuous improvement.
He added that 2025 started on a positive note with expectation of stable global growth, falling inflation and tailwinds from lower interest rates.
'However, this global macro narrative shifted with rising concerns around global growth and inflation as policy uncertainty rose sharply with dramatic shifts in trade policy. The latest global growth estimates have been revised down,' he added.
While talking about the company, Chandrasekaran said, 'At Tata Consumer, we have adopted an omnichannel strategy to tap into this large and growing opportunity. Gen Z and Millennials are expected to contribute to an increasing share of consumption; by some estimates, 76 per cent of the total consumption by 2030.'
He said that this presents an opportunity for cooking aids, packaged food, healthier & guilt-free snacking, and mini meal options. The company has added all of these to its portfolio in the last few years.
'The innovation capability we have built along with our portfolio transformation initiatives over the past few years position us well to leverage these emerging trends,' Chandrasekaran said.
On the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) space, he believes that the landscape is evolving rapidly and it is critical for brands to be present where the consumer is.
'In India, we continued to make strong progress in our sales and distribution expansion, with a total reach of 4.4 million retail outlets. We completed the implementation of a next-gen distributor management system to further enhance sales force productivity. Modern trade and e-commerce/quickcommerce continue to be strong growth drivers, and we have started building pharmacy and hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) channels,' he added.
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What behavioural shifts do you observe among borrowers? Based on the data available with us, approximately 60 crore individuals in the country have some credit history. Of these, around 27 crore are currently credit-active. Almost 67% of these are running a single credit facility. What we are observing is that the generational gap or the behavioural preferences are becoming stark. Gen Z and those in their 30s increasingly prefer consumption loans. The average age of consumption loan borrowers in the country is 31-odd years, which is very similar to the median age of India, which is around 28 years. Comparatively, the average age of home loan borrowers is 41 years. So there's a decade of difference in the preference of retail credit products in the country. Why is this significant? When a youngster comes into the job market, the first borrowing is in the form of a smartphone loan. Pre-Covid, it used to be a two-wheeler loan. 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Traditional credit underwriting primarily focuses on debt-to-burden ratios or FOIR (Fixed Obligation to Income Ratio). It compares the borrower's income against the loan obligation, assesses the disposable income left and calculates if the individual can service the loan or not. But now balance buildup or velocity also gets factored in. One parameter which has continued over the last 15-16 years is the individual's credit hunger. Evaluating offers across five-seven banks is credit evaluation, and it's perfectly fine. But when someone applies to, say, five institutions within the span of a month, that aspect is credit hungriness. I want to highlight the distinction between credit shopping and credit hungriness. It's not just about making a loan inquiry—it's about actually applying for credit. When you apply, the lender pulls your credit report, which leaves a footprint in the credit bureau records. Banks only do this when a formal credit application is made. Loan enquiry is if you go on the website of a bank and check the rate of interest. You are not applying for credit. But somebody seeking credit from multiple locations or credit institutions is considered credit hungry, which is risky. Another aspect is trying to understand own credit report. Somebody comes on takes their free annual credit report or takes it on a monthly basis. That is the right of the consumer. When they take their own credit report, there is no impact on the score because you are not applying for credit. So I want to draw the difference between checking credit score or understanding the terms and conditions which are most favourable for a consumer versus multiple credit applications. It will not make a difference if somebody applies to two places versus three places. But applying to 10 will make a difference to the score. So these are the parameters which have stayed or have got added over time. 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That said, the ideal frequency is daily data submission—where credit transactions are reported to bureaus every day, reflecting a consumer's activity from the previous day. This benefits both the consumer and the credit institution. Errors creeping into the credit score is a big problem area. Banks also reject loan application on poor credit score. What is the way out? A lot more needs to be done to educate borrowers on the finer aspects of credit behaviour . Often, the borrowers don't understand the impact of missing even one or two payments. That is where daily credit reporting will benefit the borrower. If the borrower's loan repayments get reflected on a daily basis, then he has a clear advantage. He will be at peace. I feel it is the right thing for the industry to do. We have the technology for that. If he has not paid, the borrower must proactively have a discussion with the credit institution for any outstanding payments and get it resolved. Each bank has its own credit underwriting policies which are evolving continually. So they would have a very different policy for an unsecured loan versus a secured loan . In a secured loan, they look at the borrower profile as well as the asset profile. On the unsecured front, the underwriting would happen largely on the borrower. Further, different banks would have a different threshold for the credit score, credit profile, on the time they would take to disburse a loan. And yes, credit score is just one variable into the credit underwriting. They would also look at income,monthly expenses, employment, credit performance, etc, before giving or not giving a loan. Rising delinquencies are being observed in personal loans and credit cards. Is credit behaviour deteriorating? Credit card delinquencies have inched up marginally over the past year. There are two reasons for this: credit performance and the denominator effect. The new credit card issuances have come down year-on-year. Personal loan delinquencies have been stable. The reason is tightening of credit policies by credit institutions. On the secured loans, the portfolio quality has improved. There have been multiple policy interventions by credit institutions. The MSME segment portfolio quality has also been stable, barring the less than Rs.10 lakh ticket size. So overall, the only outlier is the credit card segment. Consumers who are aware of their credit history and credit score tend to perform significantly better than those who don't monitor them. Today, we have a sizable number of individuals who access their own CIBIL report and score. Individuals who have accessed their CIBIL report and score in recent times, tend to perform better. It's very simple: If I check my health parameters, I'm bound to take care of my health because I'm conscious that I need to ensure my parameters are within the threshold. The performance is far sharper when it's a woman borrower. A woman borrower who is credit-aware performs really well. Credit card and home loan offtake has seen a decline Small loan apps have reshaped lending, providing quick loans with few taps on the phone. Has this affected credit behaviour? These small ticket personal loans form a very tiny portion of the overall credit market. In the last 12-18 months, most credit institutions have done multiple policy interventions and credit tightening. That is why, personal loan demand has moderated. At the same time, the larger banks and NBFCs are focusing on the higher ticket size personal loan. As technology evolves and digitisation happens, it is good to have quick access to loans. Ease of credit enables ease of doing business. But credit discipline and education should be encouraged. It is important that you take a loan only when needed. Avail credit within your means. Pay back on time. This area needs to be worked upon. When we talk about personal financial planning, we tend to talk about investments only. As a country, we don't talk enough about credit education and the importance of maintaining good repayment history. While we should ensure credit access, the consumer should use credit responsibly. Many individuals today are in the habit of maximising credit cards to squeeze out reward points. What is your observation on this? The credit card reward rates have not changed much. But the credit card spends have gone up. Consumers should look at their income, monthly expenses and see if they can comfortably pay their EMIs or credit card bills. This is basic hygiene. Use credit wisely and in a disciplined manner. If you are maximising your credit card, are you in a position to pay the outstanding amount within the stipulated time? Swipe the card but pay it off within the next billing cycle. Use your credit card wisely by choosing the right type, and by limiting usage to 30% of your credit limit, planning purchases, paying full dues on time, and tracking your credit score to build a strong credit profile. A credit score lies beyond the grasp of individuals with limited credit history. Is there a mechanism to assess new-to-credit borrowers? Post Covid, the proportion of new-tocredit borrowers has reduced considerably. Credit institutions prefer a credit tested borrower on the retail side. Particularly in the last two-three years, credit institutions have focused more on existing bank customers and credittested borrowers. The reason is the information availability. A bank knows the entire history of the customer. A credit-tested borrower has a credit track record. But a new-to-credit borrower should be encouraged. There are various tools and data points which may be used by credit institutions to evaluate such new-to-credit borrowers. For example, if utility payments information is made available digitally to credit information bureaus, it will help in assessing newto-credit borrowers. If an individual has been paying electricity or gas bills consistently for three years, the credit institution would know that the borrower has certain credit discipline. As of now, there is no accredited agency for individuals that assesses and showcases consumer discipline on various utility payments. We will wait for more clarity on this. 2 out of 5 borrowers' first foray into credit is for consumption products Bhavesh Jain MD & CEO, TransUnion CIBIL