Wimbledon picks, predictions: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz semifinal odds, best bets Friday

New York Post

11-07-2025

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Not too long ago, it looked like 2025 was going to be a 'down year' for Carlos Alcaraz.
The Spaniard had just lost back-to-back matches to Jack Draper and, shockingly, David Goffin during the Sunshine Double in March, and his main rival, Jannik Sinner, captured the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open to cement his spot as World No. 1.
Alcaraz, now all the way down to No. 3, needed a big performance on the clay, his best surface, to heap some pressure on Sinner, who was suspended for three months for testing positive for a banned substance.
He went above and beyond, winning titles in Monte Carlo and Rome, while finishing runner-up to Holger Rune in Barcelona.
The 22-year-old defeated Sinner in a thrilling French Open final and then won another trophy at Queen's Club before setting his sights on a three-peat at Wimbledon.
All of a sudden, Alcaraz's sluggish (by his standards) start to 2025 was a distant memory.
He goes into Friday's semifinal against Taylor Fritz not only riding an 18-match winning streak at Wimbledon, but also a career-best 23-match winning streak overall.
Oddsmakers have Alcaraz as the -138 favorite to win Wimbledon, and he owns -600 odds to defeat Fritz in the first semifinal Friday.
Fritz vs. Alcaraz betting odds, preview
Player Odds Carlos Alcaraz -600 Taylor Fritz +400 Odds via bet365
What's most astonishing about Alcaraz's parallel streaks is that he's not whitewashing opponents.
Fabio Fognini, the World No. 138, took him to five sets in Round 1 last week, and Alcaraz had to come from behind against Andrey Rublev in the Round of 16.
Alcaraz also dropped sets to Damir Dzumhur and Fabian Marozsan at Roland Garros.
Despite being under pressure, Alcaraz has always found a way to raise his level at the perfect time, sucking the wind out of the sails of his opponents.
In best-of-five tennis, you need to be able to outwit, outlast and outplay Alcaraz, which means you can't just rely on one part of your game to get by him.
Taylor Fritz is into the Wimbledon semifinals for the first time in his career.
Getty Images
Eventually he will adjust, forcing you to beat him with a Plan B.
Very few players, if any, have a Plan B good enough to defeat Alcaraz.
The good news for Fritz is that his Plan A is elite.
Perhaps the most dangerous server in the sport right now, the Californian should be able to rack up enough cheap points against the World No. 2 to at least give himself a platform in this match.
If Alcaraz figures out Fritz's serve, the lights will be turned out, so the underdog better hope he's built up a big enough lead to get over the line by that point.
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Fritz vs. Alcaraz pick
These two have been among the best players in the world for a number of years now, but they've got very little history against one another.
Alcaraz is technically 2-0 against Fritz, but one of those matches came at the Laver Cup, which is a unique team event. The only other contest was in Miami in 2023, with Alcaraz winning in straight sets.
The unfamiliarity should help Fritz, and give Alcaraz a lot to think about, especially in the early stages of the match.
Ultimately, Alcaraz should have too much to offer across five sets, but Fritz could surprise the tournament favorite out of the gates.
Back Fritz to win the first set, and then look for your opportunity to buy back in on Alcaraz after that.
The Play: Fritz to win the first set (+240, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.