Treasury Bonds Just Hit 4-Week Lows. How Much Lower Can They Go?
See on the daily bar chart for September U.S. Treasury bond futures that prices are now starting to trend lower and have just hit a four-week low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture and has recently produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the red MACD line has moved below the blue trigger line. Both lines are also trending down.
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Tariffs, Inflation and Other Key Things to Watch this Week
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Fundamentally, the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, as seen by recent more upbeat U.S. economic data. The Federal Reserve also thinks U.S. inflation remains sticky. Both of these factors are likely to limit the ability of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. These elements are also U.S. bond-market bearish. Rising U.S. trade tariff threats have only added to worries about rising inflation.
A move in September U.S. T-Bond futures prices below chart support at 112 16/32 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 108 even, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at 114 16/32.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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