Do Hotel Management Agreements Now Include Too Many Guarantees?
In addition to traditional key money, or those offered in 'reverse' management contracts, guarantees are becoming increasingly common in hotel management agreements (HMAs). But are they all beneficial? And if so, how should they be negotiated?
1. The common practice of guaranteeing remuneration
Hotel owners are increasingly demanding that operators invest financially to demonstrate their commitment to the hotel management agreement1. Operators who choose to accept generally find it in their interest to do so - they stand out from the competition, may gain negotiating power on strategic clauses, and reduce the risk of the owner terminating the agreement.
Hotel operators offer several main guarantees based on operating performance to secure hotel management agreements. These generally include:
Performance testing: these performance clauses can lead to early termination of the HMA or payment of compensation to the owner if the operator fails to meet its performance expectations. The operator may also provide a guarantee relating to Adjusted Gross Operating Profit (AGOP)2.
Minimum Guarantee: here, the operator has to pay compensation to the owner if it fails to meet the minimum guarantee (i.e. a certain GOP amount, often capped, set in the management agreement). On this occasion, the operator may also provide a warranty that covers the minimum guarantee and, in return, claim the right to reclaim any repayment if the hotel's operating results allow (i.e. if performance exceeds pre-defined minimum thresholds).
Owner's Priority: the operator will only receive incentive fees if the hotel achieves a certain performance threshold.
2. Key money: a financial commitment from the operator
Key money is a sum paid by the operator to the owner when the hotel opens. Often calculated as a percentage of the operator's capital or fees, key money may be guaranteed by the operator, and is used to help develop the hotel or cover renovation costs. However, negotiating key money may involve certain compromises, such as higher fees or a longer contract term.
Key money is generally amortised by the owner on a straight-line pro rata basis over the life of the agreement. In the event of early termination, the owner undertakes to repay the unamortised portion. Indeed, the operator will often impose a clause guaranteeing repayment by the owner in the event of early termination of the agreement3.
3. The specific case of 'reverse' hotel management agreements
In a 'reverse' hotel management agreement, the operator is the sole employer of staff, and passes on salary costs to the owner. This model is less common, but can be negotiated when the hotel is a strategic asset for the operator.
We believe that it is justified and indeed common for the operator to request, in return, a specific guarantee covering the owner's reimbursement of social security expenses and other costs that it (the operator) advances. However, this guarantee must be both quantifiable and capped, in order to ensure its validity – the subject is not always treated with the rigour it deserves4.
4. Common guarantee practices in hotel management agreements
Independent bank guarantees are often preferred, but guarantees from parent or affiliated companies are also common (as they are less costly). The parties must ensure that these guarantees are legally valid and effective, particularly when foreign companies are involved. As the guarantees and the management agreement form a contractual whole which is in principle inseparable and indivisible, care must be taken as to the applicable law, language and jurisdiction.
Some management agreements even go as far as to include reciprocal guarantees of joint and several liability of parent or affiliated companies on both the owner and operator sides, to ensure that the parties' contractual obligations are met. While these increase confidence between the parties, each party must ensure that there is a clear cap on its guaranteed commitments.
Consideration should also be given to the increasing prevalence of guarantee insurance taken out by the owner or operator - where the indemnity mechanism is transferred to the insurer rather than the parties. Before underwriting, the insurer will review both the management agreement and the representations and warranties made by the parties.
Benefits to the owner and operator: each party can sign the HMA without financial exposure for the duration of the contract and can improve liquidity while benefiting from the necessary financial security.
5. The relative usefulness of certain guarantees negotiated in management agreements
We could also mull over the many layers and practicality of certain guarantees that do not appear entirely rational when the owner or operator has the necessary financial capacity to enter into a contractual commitment (although it is still necessary for each party to prove this effectively and diligently with the help of advisers and auditors).
Finally, the inflation of guarantees can affect the assignability or transferability of hotel management agreements which can run for up to 20 or even 30 years. We must also take into account the guarantees already given by the owner in connection with the financing of the hotel, as well as the compatibility with financial arrangements such as property finance leasing or overseas tax relief (e.g. in the French West Indies).
6. Practical advice on negotiating guarantees in hotel management contracts, especially for first-time owners5:
Prioritise guarantees: focus on the necessary ones first and then enforce them. Clarify guarantee expectations and caps: make sure all parties understand the implications of each guarantee. Maintain open communication: transparency helps resolve disagreements more quickly. Manage the pace: follow a structured timetable for dealing with guarantees and avoid slippage.
Following these steps can help make the negotiation process smoother and more efficient.
1 See our article on hotel management agreements on Hospitality Net : Hotel management agreements offer flexibility for hotel investment in France
2 See our article on hotel performance tests on Hospitality Net: Hotel performance test clauses in France – simple wording for maximum success
3 See our article on the subject on Hospitality Net : The practice of key money in hotel management agreements in France
4 See our article on the subject on Hospitality Net : Successfully negotiating a 'reverse' hotel management agreement in France
5 See our article on the subject on Hospitality Net : Recommended governing law and jurisdiction clauses in French hotel management agreements
Christopher Boinet
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In this week's episode of the Hotel Moment podcast, we're featuring an episode from our webinar series, Hotel Moment Deep Dive. Revinator Anisha Yadav, VP of Customer and Product Marketing, and Jennifer Hill, VP of Commercial Strategy at Kalibri Labs, review some of the latest data from the hospitality landscape, including key U.S. hotel demand trends, critical hotel performance metrics, and notable growth from specific booking channels. With all the market research at hand, Anisha gives step-by-step instructions on how to apply the research to your email and voice channel marketing. You'll learn from real-life campaign examples from other hoteliers who are responding proactively to market changes — using their guest data to power campaigns that follow up on voice channel leads and increase conversions. Tune in and find out if your email and voice channel strategies will hold up in the changing hospitality landscape. Meet your host As Chief Marketing Officer at Revinate, Karen Stephens is focused on driving long-term growth by building Revinate's brand equity, product marketing, and customer acquisition strategies. Her deep connections with hospitality industry leaders play a key role in crafting strategic partnerships. Karen is also the host of The Hotel Moment Podcast, where she interviews top players in the hospitality industry. Karen has been with Revinate for over 11 years, leading Revinate's global GTM teams. Her most recent transition was from Chief Revenue Officer, where she led the team in their highest booking quarter to date in Q4 2023. Karen has more than 25 years of expertise in global hospitality technology and online distribution — including managing global accounts in travel and hospitality organizations such as Travelocity and Watch the video Transcript Anisha Yadav – 00:00:00: What are we doing across these touch points on the website to really capture that data and then use that data to market exclusive offers to these guests who you've already attracted to your website? Intro – 00:00:16: Welcome to the Hotel Moment Podcast presented by Revinate, the podcast where we discuss how hotel technology shapes every moment of the hotelier's experience. Tune in as we explore the cutting-edge technology transforming the hospitality industry and hear from experts and visionaries shaping the future of guest experiences. Whether you're a hotelier or a tech enthusiast, you're in the right place. Let's dive in and discover how we can elevate the art of hospitality together. Karen Stephens – 00:00:45: Hi, everyone. Welcome back to the Hotel Moment Podcast. I am your host, Karen Stephens, the Chief Marketing Officer of Revinate. And today we're featuring a webinar from our series, hotel Moment Deep Dive. In this webinar, you're going to hear Anisha Yadav, who is our Vice President of Customer and Product Marketing, speak with Jennifer Hill , who is the Vice President of Commercial Strategy at Kalibri Labs. Jennifer has actually been on the podcast before when she spoke to me in person from NAVIGATE Miami last year. You'll have to go back and listen to that episode because it's really good. But we'll link it in the show notes. And it's all about commercial strategy, net operating income, and how hoteliers can achieve greater profitability. But in this webinar, Jennifer presents the latest data from Kalibri Labs, which provides an insight into some of the challenges and trends that hoteliers are currently facing, including where demand is coming from, which booking channels are experiencing the most growth, and more. So a lot of uncertainty in the markets. And Jennifer really, with the data, can show you how things are going today. And then from there, Anisha really drills down into what hoteliers can do with that market research and how they can apply that knowledge to approach their marketing and voice channel strategies. So get ready for some of the latest research and how to integrate it into your approach using data across all of your channels. And if you're not already on YouTube, I really encourage you to watch that webinar there because there are some really good data stats and some beautiful campaign examples for your viewing pleasure. Last but not least, if you're listening to this before HITEC, which is coming up in June, I'll see you there along with Anisha and Anisha Yadav . So Anisha and I will be in a booth at HITEC, and Jennifer will be at HSMAI. Link in the show notes. Thanks. Anisha Yadav – 00:02:27: Good morning, good afternoon, good evening to everyone dialing in to our Hotel Moment Deep Dive webinar presented by Revinate. Thank you, everyone, again, for joining us today. Our topic for today is around navigating the new normal, a lot of data, a lot of trends that are changing in our industry. So we'll be speaking with Kalibri Labs' Jennifer Hill , who will be walking us through that data. And we'll also look at Revinate's insights and what customers are doing with other campaigns and activation strategies. That's really driving that revenue growth. So with that, let's get started. So quick introductions. I'm Anisha Yadav, and I lead product marketing at Revinate. And I'm super excited to have a friend and an industry colleague, Jennifer Hill, from Kalibri Labs, who leads their commercial strategy, to co-host this webinar with me. Thanks, Jennifer, for joining us. Jennifer Hill – 00:03:17: Thanks so much. I'm excited to be here. Anisha Yadav – 00:03:19: Awesome. So before we get into our session, just want to quickly recap a lot on the agenda today. So we'll start with the new report that's been launched by Jennifer and team that speaks about the state of the state. So we'll cover a bit about the demand patterns and trends that we're seeing. We look at some of the stats from year to date, 2025, which Jennifer was kind enough to update for the last week of May, looking at the chain scale analysis, the channel mix performance, and then really get into what does that all mean for hoteliers on the call today? What are we learning from it? What are we seeing from a revenue standpoint with our customers? And how are they using their data to really drive the revenue growth across their portfolio properties? And lastly, we have some time save for questions, which we get to at the very end of our session. So super excited. So with that, let's get into the federal policy shifts. And Jennifer, I'll pass this on to you. Jennifer Hill – 00:04:14: Great, Anisha. Thank you so much. As we dive into the data, I want to highlight how the recent federal policy shifts are creating a distinct pattern in hotel command. These aren't just abstract policy changes. They're having real, measurable impacts on booking patterns across the country. So let's look at what's happening. The executive order from February represented a fundamental shift in government travel policy. What's notable here isn't just the prohibition of trips without prior written approval, but the extraordinary step that was taken to reduce the travel card limits to just a dollar for civilian Department of Defense employees. This effectively eliminated short-term government travel overnight rather than phasing it in gradually and giving anyone any time to prepare. There were similar restrictions back in 2013, but that's so long ago that none of us remembered until we started doing some research. So the implementation this time has been far more abrupt. Moving on to additional key impacts, the ripple effects go well beyond just travelers themselves. We're talking about over 3 million federal employees having travel constrained. And it was particularly concentrated in terms of impact in the DMV region, Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. But I think it's also important to highlight something equally concerning –- the secondary effect of leisure travel by federal employees. There's a lot of job uncertainty and they're seeing some drawback in terms of spending because they're not sure if they're going to remain employed or for how long. We're also looking at another dimension here in terms of conference and workshop cancellations. There were over 100 NIH studies paused, and over $800 million in grant awards delayed. So we're seeing entire ecosystems of academic and research gatherings simply disappearing. They're just being canceled with no rescheduling in sight. So as we get into the thick of the data here, we're looking at government and corporate reunite declines year over year. So we're looking specifically at government bookings on the left. These tell a particularly stark story. We'll notice the Q1 to Q2 acceleration from an 8% decline and government reunites to a dramatic 16% drop. And unfortunately, it's not happening in isolation. Corporate bookings, especially those related to government travel and government contractors, have softened as well, although it is not as severe. And when we look at the 30-day on-the-book outlook on the right, it is especially telling. Government bookings are showing a 15% decline, suggesting that this isn't a trend that's going to revert any time soon. But I will add a note of positivity, if you can call it that. This has started to stabilize. So we're not seeing as much acceleration week over week as this data is updated. So what does this look like when we're looking at the total nights by segment? We're thinking of this from a broader perspective. So while government room nights have plummeted by 11%, we can take a look at what's happening with our promotion or loyalty member rates. They're actually up by 6%. So this is our first indicator that you guys are adapting really well. Market adaptation is moving in the right direction. Hotels that have strong loyalty programs are successfully shifting mix to capture more of that segment. We're also seeing OTA bookings with a modest growth at 2%, suggesting travelers are still booking. They're just changing how they're doing it. So the race to capture these is becoming more intense. Anisha Yadav – 00:07:44: And that's a really good point about the positive that you're seeing here. We're seeing the same trend in terms of the promotional offers reflected in our data as well, with customers really adapting to unique segmentations and packages and offers. And we'll talk a bit about that in the subsequent section too. Jennifer Hill – 00:07:59: That's great. I think there are some good success stories coming up. So when we're looking at this colorful chart, this is a year-over-year percent change in actualized room nights by some of the top rate categories that we're tracking. So this trend line is telling an important story about segment performance over time. We want to call your attention to the diverging paths. The government business, the dark blue line, continues its downward trajectory, now approaching that 15%. Meanwhile, the bright green line showing that promotion or loyalty member rate is climbing steadily. So that's up now 10%. And one of the things that is worth mentioning here is the volatility, the shift in a yellow line that represents group bookings. There are spikes and drops there that are corresponding both with policy announcement and implementation date, but also more importantly, over this period of time, shift and demand generators. So Easter shifted later into April this year versus last year, and you can see that change. And we also had in a lot of markets across the U.S.. Activity related to the full eclipse in 2024. So that also is represented here. Anisha Yadav – 00:09:07: Right. And just as a reminder for the audience, Easter last year, like you mentioned, was March 31st. So you kind of see that in the graph. When you look at the same time, the CR data, which is Easter moved to April 20th in 2025, similar to the eclipse that was April 8th of last year. So that kind of reflects what you're seeing in the data as well. Jennifer Hill – 00:09:25: So let's shift our focus to chain scale and examine how these trends are playing out across different hotel categories. So across the top here, you'll notice three different types of ADR listed. I want to explain these to you briefly. So these are unique to Kalibri. We track three different types of revenue. And the one that is most common or will be most familiar to everyone is hotel collected. So this is what is tracked on hotel financial reports as well as on benchmarking tools. So this is what the hotel is collecting. We at Calibree Labs have some unique data differentiators, primarily cost of acquisition, things like OTA margins and markups, retail commission, channel cost and transaction fees that allow us to calculate what we call guest paid revenue. So guest paid revenue is as straightforward as it sounds. This is what the guest is paying to say in the hotel, whether it is directly to the hotel or through a third party. And from guest paid revenue, we deduct that total cost of acquisition. We do this on a transaction-specific basis. And then in a table like this, we are rolling it up into groups, chain costs by asset type. COPE is an acronym. It stands for Contribution Operating Profit and Expense. And I really want to simplify this and ask you to think of it as what hotels are keeping from what the guest has paid. So if we take a super simple example, $100 booking, the guest is paying $100, whether they're booking it through or through an OTA. Let's imagine it's through There are still costs associated with that. The hotel collected ADR might be $93. By the time we then pay commission or additional channel cost and transaction fees, we could be down to $91. So we'll see some examples of that as we get a little bit more into the data. But that is how you want to be thinking about these three ADR types. Anisha Yadav – 00:11:17: Right. And I think just to kind of point out, when I look at this data and look at the euro increase, so you can see luxury is about 3.43. And pretty much everything under that hotel class is about one to under one or maybe just about two. And I think interesting to see that as we look at the cost of acquisition from an asset perspective with the interest rates, inflation, labor costs, all of that kind of spiking. It's super critical. Like you have to look at what the flow through is and how that kind of translates into your net operating income or your NOI. As you look at this data. Jennifer Hill – 00:11:48: Yeah, absolutely. I think you're right in calling out luxury. The spread between guest paid ADR and COPE ADR is the widest in the luxury segment it's $25. So luxury properties are able to maintain rate integrity, but they're doing so at a higher cost of acquisition. So those are two numbers that you definitely always want to see moving in tandem. And that's something important to keep in mind as we discuss marketing strategies later. So let's look at channel mix performance. This is year to date, 2025. This is going to take a look at different booking channels and how they're performing in this environment. Keeping in mind, January was relatively untouched. Really a lot of this impact started in February. So three full months of this and year to date data. So this is going to help us identify where to focus marketing efforts for maximum return. So this is a simple table, channel or source of business on the left, and then COPE as a percentage of guests paid on the right. And again, to simplify this, I want to focus on that net revenue, that contribution operating profit and mix time as what we're keeping from what guests have paid. And if you zero in here specifically on voice as an example. Again, with that $100 example for guest paid rate, voice channel bookings, the hotel is keeping $95.82 of that. So that's the way really to read this. Your coming in at $94.87. And then as we go down into our more indirect channels like GDS, OTA, wholesale, the cost of acquisition becomes higher. I do want to make a super quick note here about group. Of course, in terms of group bookings, there are going to be associated commission costs and rebates potentially. So this is a number that you can deduct those from based on your hotel specific performance in group. This is just across the board. They run about $2 just to get the reservation into the hotel. Anisha Yadav – 00:13:39: Right. And it's very interesting to see that spread from a channel perspective and really like what you said about, you know, as you're looking at as a commercial or a marketing revenue leader on this call, thinking through all these channels and what is your strategy when you go back to your revenue meetings and thinking through how this will translate into the contribution to operating profit and expense, like you said. Jennifer Hill – 00:14:00: Awesome. So this is an area that we really stay focused on in Calibri is length of stay. So the number of rooms that you're having to check in and out every day make a big difference in terms of cost and profitability. So length of stay patterns can reveal other opportunities. One thing to highlight here is that voice bookings average 2.36 nights, the second highest after group at just 2.73. So personal interaction definitely drives longer stays. So call centers aren't just booking channels. It's a revenue optimization tool. We also highlight here They're the shortest 1.8 room nights. So when we're thinking about that channel as a booking source, really targeting extension of stay offers, whether that's the leisure, which is one of my least favorite words, offers for digital bookers or any personalized upselling or attribute based selling, which I know we'll get into how we can maximize those opportunities. Anisha Yadav – 00:14:58: Correct. And I think you hit it on the nail, like making sure that you're looking at your day of the week, you're looking at your software days and how do you really capitalize the current business on the books to make sure that you can invite the guests to extend their stay for their software Monday or Sunday or Friday. So being strategic about that. And like you said, we get into more examples in our subsequent slides. Jennifer Hill – 00:15:18: Lastly, this is a report that we released in April of this year around the market turbulence. So if you'd like to download it, we will drop that link in the chat for you today. And there will be updates to this. Anisha Yadav – 00:15:33: Awesome. Thanks so much, Jen. So now that we've seen the market data that Jen just presented, let's look at what were the learnings from previous downturns or previous market dynamic changes that we've seen. And we've seen a lot. So quickly kind of summarizing that what did not work, as we discussed previously, deep rate discountings, OTA sales, cutting costs that led to a lot of decline in guest satisfaction. So as you're eroding the asset value with all these heavy sales, that's also leading to cutting the costs from an operator perspective and eventually decline in the guest satisfaction. And then when you look at what really worked was marketing to past guests, really making sure that you're exclusive with these fenced offers, targeting new segments. Even like during COVID, we had a lot of new segments that came up like the drive market, geo-targeted campaigns that did really well, and really focusing on the outbound call strategy to upsell and cross-sell that answer-y aspect of your property, whether it be food and beverage, spark credits, value-add packages. We saw all of that really did really wonders for the asset value in general. Anything to add here, Jen, that I may have missed? Jennifer Hill – 00:16:38: Nothing that you missed, but I will emphasize the deep rate discounts. Just as an example, prior to the pandemic, it took 10 full years between the downturn in 2008, 2009 to recover the ADR, to get back to that prior ADR. And we hit that in 2019, just before the pandemic really shut everything down. So we definitely have been more adaptable and resilient with the downturns that we've had. But it's something to keep in mind and just a data point to really rely on as it feels tougher in these times. Anisha Yadav – 00:17:08: Exactly. And we look at some examples of even now what's working for our customers and dive deeper into it. Again, so let's look at what else is happening. So really quickly looking at from an industry perspective, from a marketing perspective, there's a new term by the name of zero-click search. And as we all are playing around with conversational AI search engines, there's a data point that Google had shared, which talks about in the year of 2024, about 65% of Google Search ended without a click. And when you look at mobile, it's even higher. It's about 75%. So what that means is organic search, organic reviews, content on your website is going to be really important. And the way we've actually done our digital efforts is going to change. So here's an example of what zero-click means. I just searched this yesterday. Where do celebrities stay in San Francisco as an example? And you can see the AI review summary right there. And they have hotels that are listed there. So how do you make sure that your properties are getting listed when consumers going on the website and searching through a conversational AI tool? So the game's really changing. And speaking of change, this is, again, fresh off the press. Airbnb had their summer release sometime last week, where they spoke about what they're launching. And the two new things that they're coming up with, experiences and services. So again, something hotels have done for years and years. So I think it's really a time for us to be very conscious of making sure that we're really focusing on the experience aspect of what are we providing at the property from a food and beverage, from a spa, from a local activities perspective, really working closely with the destination management companies or DMVs of your local cities and strategizing on what campaigns can drive that extra exposure for your properties. Anything to add here, Jen? Jennifer Hill – 00:18:54: The thing that's really interesting to me when we're looking at this as services, I think that's a differentiator that hotels have relied upon a lot for our Airbnb comparison. So not only that concierge service with experiences is showing up here as an opportunity for them to win more guests, that services level is going to potentially change the way people are thinking about booking an Airbnb with a full kitchen and full rooms than just a hotel. Anisha Yadav – 00:19:21: Right. That's a good point. And then I think now we're looking at- Okay, we have the data, we have the industry update, a lot's changing. So now let's look at what does this mean for hoteliers on the call, for owners and operators, and what can you really take away? Practical things that you can implement as of, say, tomorrow, and really move the needle from a revenue perspective. So before we get into that, let's talk about the data. So I think data is the foundation of everything, whether it's revenue generation, whether it's deriving insights, implementing AI. And I think I heard our CEO actually talk about this at our customer conference, where he spoke about AI is as good as your data. So it really goes back to how you're capturing this data for hospitality. Here, you can see that on an average, a hotel has about seven to 10 systems. So how do we make sure that the data signals coming across these systems are unified into one profile? And that's the foundation for you to then activate campaigns across different channels, across your email, your voice, your web. But it all really starts with the foundation of getting that data right. And this is an eye chart, a lot going on here. But I think as we look at the guest journey from inspiration to pre-arrival, to the on-property experience, to the post-day, there are multiple touch points where you can actually collect and activate the guest data to make sure, one, you're maximizing the wallet share of each arrival. And two, you're doing everything possible on property to really elevate that customer experience. Either it's by checking in on their stay experience or upselling them on ancillary revenue or ancillary experiences that are happening from a property perspective. Thank you. And it all starts, like I said, with your first party data collection playbook. So here's an example like we discussed previously. There's a lot that's happening in the website space. So hotels, marketeers are investing so much to kind of get that traffic to your website. So you're on an average from about 100 visitors that you may have on your website, only about 2.4 end up booking. So there's about an 85% of a booking abandonment that's happening from the booking engine. And as a marketer, what are we doing across these touch points on the website to really capture that data and then use that data to market exclusive offers to these guests who you've already attracted to your website. So another visual here is you have the guests coming on the website, say it's on the homepage or the booking engine, and they're abandoning at some point. We're able to collect that data into one unified profile. And then depending on the preference of the customer, you can either trigger a campaign which can drive about 15% to 30% conversion rates. So this is an exclusive offer for this guest that was on the website. Or if you have an on-site reservation sales team, you can power a phone call and with all the data points that you already know about this guest and really convert this guest maybe at a 3x higher than average booking value that you can get through a digital channel. So there's a lot that you can do. And as Jen spoke about the channel mix, there's a lot that you can play around with for your property, looking at the data that you're getting across channel and really having a strategy for each channel that's driving the direct reservation. Jennifer Hill – 00:22:37: I think, Anisha, what's really striking to me about this leaky bucket funnel is that we're focusing on converting that 2.4%, like that smaller percentage. But there's just such enormous, as this slide shows, untapped potential on that other 97.6% who aren't converting. So to have that capture and remarketing to site abandoners, get that 15% to 30% conversion rate on follow-up campaigns, it's an order of magnitude higher than those source time bookers. So really focusing your efforts and your creative outlet here has such a huge return. Anisha Yadav – 00:23:12: Exactly. And just to show you guys a visual of what that looks like for one of our customers, this is the Springboard hospitality. And this property is part of their West Hollywood collection portfolio. So this is the campaign in action where you can see the subject line. It's triggered right after one minute of that guest leaving the booking engine. And what I really like about this is also the call to action, right? So you know exactly what room type this guest was looking, what the dates were. And the call to action has, hey, if you want to go on the website and book, you can click on that call to action of, okay, I'm ready. Or maybe the guest left because they had more questions about the hotel or the activities. So you can also plug in your call center number where the guests can call in and get more information about the property. The agent can actually upsell this guest on maybe not just the room, but there's a spa, there's a food and beverage outlet. So really there are more opportunities with that personal conversation that can happen through this campaign as well. Okay, so before we dive into more examples, I kind of wanted to summarize what are the different ways in which you can actually drive segmentation, audience building. So on the right, you can see demographic information. So be it location. We did a lot of this in our segmented road trip campaigns. You can see a lot of geo-targeted examples that we showcase. There's lifetime spend. So depending on how much this guest has spent on the property, maybe they're high values. So you can segment offers that can be high type, room type equals suite, or the spend is more than X, depending on your portfolio property. And really drive them to experience packages that are at that price point. Survey NPS is a really strong one that PCR customers use as well. So a customer, if Jennifer stays at the property, if she's a detractor, the messaging has to be different to invite her back versus Jennifer had an amazing stay and she's a promoter. So really getting these data points in the segmentation builder and being able to activate that messaging that speaks to Jennifer depending on her response or her preferences, or it will stay data, which is talks about day of the week, booking channel, et cetera. So there's a lot that you can do. And we'll try our best to show you some of these examples in our session today. Okay, so looking at staycation, so like we spoke about geo-targeted campaigns, this is one of our portfolio properties that's part of Noble House Hotels and Resorts, La Playa Beach and Golf Resort. And this campaign was designed by Shotel Hospitality Marketing. So what I like about this campaign is the segmentation aspect of it. It's fenced, so it's targeted to guests who are within the Florida residency. And they have a recency and engagement filter, so guests who've interacted and or stayed at the property within the last year. And kind of what we spoke about, and three aspect of things. So not just room offer, but we're also selling them on the wine dinner that's happening on the property. So again, you can see the conversion is about 4%. It's still running and still kind of attributing revenue for the property. Jennifer Hill – 00:26:05: And Anisha, I think these are really impressive metrics. But as we were reviewing this and I'm watching you talk about it again, I think what's not immediately sort of visible is the compound effect of how this messaging is building and how important that is in terms of conversion. It's not that your clients with high performance are sending one off emails and getting lucky. They're being really thoughtful and measured in how they're creating that sequence. Anisha Yadav – 00:26:31: Exactly. And I think also it's the ease of activating those, right? So as you know, and I come from the revenue background too, it's like you have a wash next week. So you have to react. You have to be agile to get that business on the book. So being able to kind of pivot your strategy and seeing what's working and optimizing is key to your point and being consistent with that over a period of months. Speaking of experiences, this is another beautiful example from Ojai Valley Inn, which is Forbes 5 Star and a Preferred Hotels affiliated property. And you can see like this is a newsletter format, a campaign that talks about the on-property experience. It really does an amazing job of painting that picture of what would it be like to be at the property. So Jen, I don't know about you, but when I was reading this campaign, I really wanted to be there for Easter. And they have a lot of fun activities for couples, for kids, all of that planned out. And you can see the numbers. They did almost 1,500 plus room nights just with this campaign. Jennifer Hill – 00:27:26: Yeah, the oranges really stood out to me. It was like, oh, like you're refreshing. Yeah, like… Funding network. Anisha Yadav – 00:27:32: Yeah. Another example, I love this brand, AutoCamp. Again, they do an amazing job with their marketing. And the reason I think this really stands out, and we're seeing a lot of customers adapt this as well, is really using your social proof. So like we saw with the zero-click trend, it's all about the organic reviews, what our customers actually saying about your property that's going to be key and important as we kind of progress in 2025. So here you can see they've kind of used their guest reviews as part of the copy of the email, and they're promoting the other locations. So it's not just about this one location you stayed at. Say Jennifer stayed at AutoCamp Yosemite. She had an amazing stay. She's a promoter, and her feedback can now be used to get more folks from, say, Catskills or other AutoCamp locations to try out the newer properties that they're launching. So great way to introduce your whole database to new properties that you're launching, and really using that social proof to drive the traffic. One that I love is a strategic partnership that our customer Benchmark Hotels & Resorts did with KFC. So they launched this, there was sea of seamness, there's so many campaigns being launched over Mother's Day. So how do you really stand out with this strategic partnership they tied up with KFC? And it was available for select properties. So they kind of defined the audience using the properties that were offering this, again, had a recency filter on it, excluded future stays. And again, you can see the numbers itself, the average CTR on this campaign was about 10%. And also like it drives additional exposure for the brand with this unique partnership that they did. Jennifer Hill – 00:29:04: Yeah, I really love this one. It caught my attention. I think it's one of those that fall into it's almost campy. So that's why it could go viral or get that extra exposure. But it also speaks to like guilty pleasures. Like maybe there is a mom out there who loves a bucket of chicken. Like what a smart thing. I loved this one. Anisha Yadav – 00:29:24: Yeah. And another example here, and this is the last one, it kind of is a little more broader, not just emails, but how do you kind of use your learnings from your past guest marketing to kind of optimize that learning and apply that to your digital marketing efforts to build lookalike audiences and attract new guests who are like Jennifer, who loves SCP Hotels. So this, what this does is kind of helps you to optimize your ad spend, re-engage with one strategy would be re-engage with previous guests who've stayed on property. And two is to build lookalike audiences who are like these guests who've stayed at your property. So again, helps you with optimizing your spend. So you can see ROAS on this effort was about 22 to one and conversions were really high that close to about 4.2%. So I think as we're seeing the shift in the digital spend and what's happening in the landscape, it's going to get really important to be very mindful and strategic with where are you spending your dollars to make sure you're getting the best out of it. Okay. So now that we looked at a lot of awesome examples, this is again, fresh off the press. What I did here is we looked at our North America hotels and we looked at the top performing tactics from January 1st to April 30th of last month. And at a high level, like in total, these initiatives drove close to 49 million and counting in direct revenue for our property. So I tried my best to summarize these takeaways so that as a hotelier, if you're on the call, you can go back and implement these tactics for your properties and see the results that you can drive from these initiatives. So the first tactic that we see works across emails and voice is attribute-based selling. So I think Jen, you spoke a bit about that, but in terms of themes, we're seeing hotels really charge a bit more premium for your suite categories up, sell your guests to that next level. Interconnecting rooms can be very much suitable for families that are traveling, say for summer, or rooms with views. So really making sure as a commercial leader, you're thinking through these attributes of your rooms and your inventory. And how do you optimize that through your email and voice channel? Jennifer Hill – 00:31:29: This one, like the ocean mountains magic really stood out to me because I think when people say, describe your favorite vacation, I'm like, I want to be near the ocean, but I also want the mountains. But even if I'm just visiting a city for the first time, which in that demographic data, you would likely know, give me a city view, offer me that city view, like see Chicago from your balcony or whatever that option might be for you so that you can really drive that point home and make it experiential. I think that is so meaningful from a connection standpoint. Anisha Yadav – 00:31:55: And to your point, you can fence that off first. It's not something that you're going under a rate parity for, but these are the ways in which you can be more strategic and add a premium to these attributes that are as part of your room inventory. The next one is on booking behavior. And I think another favorite of mine, again, to your point about length of stays. So how do you make sure that you are driving length of stays for your property, using your repeat guests as an exclusive offer generator, and also specific days of the week? So for example, if Mondays are soft, how do you make sure that you can send an offer to the Sunday checkout to get them to extend their stay-by-one night, as an example? So different ways in which you can get strategic, just knowing what's happening with your properties and activate these campaigns across email and voice. We've spoken a lot about experiences. So here's another example of how you can think through it. So depending on what you have with the property, so it's golf, wellness, focus campaigns, adventure. Like I said, Autocamp does an amazing job of, and again, thinking through what you can do from an outbound call perspective with your reservation sales agents, to really upsell these guests who are already booked, using these experiences, and having maybe an outbound call campaign set up to get these guests to buy more and maybe upgrade their stay, or buy more of the experiences that you have on the property level. Anything to add here, Jen? Jennifer Hill – 00:33:13: I think this highlight on experiences can really underscore the value of that ancillary spend, that additional wallet share that you want to capture while guests are in, plan to see it early, do some in-house messaging, and then capture that before they're checking out. It makes a world of difference when you're thinking about probability. Anisha Yadav – 00:33:31: Exactly. And the next one's on location. I think as any hotel is pretty proud of their location and where they are, be it city or a ski resort and really using that in your messaging again. So, you know, again, thinking through, okay, if you have a portfolio of properties, maybe one's a ski resort and one is a beach resort. How can you cross promote that preference of the guests and maybe get the ski resort guests to also book maybe a beach location? So being creative, thinking through like all of the assets that you have within your portfolio and what can you use in your marketing messages to get the trust promotion going as well. So bringing us home, I wanted to summarize all of the practical takeaways and all of the themes that we kind of spoke about. And I think the first one that talks about the pricing power, and I think we spoke a lot about this, it relies with you hoteliers and the commercial leaders on the call. Thinking through before you press the easy button of discounting, OTA sales, etc. What are the awesome ways in which you can package your rooms, your answer to your offers and the value add benefit that you can provide to your loyal guests? And making sure that you're thinking through all of those aspects for your properties. Jennifer Hill – 00:34:39: Yeah, I think from maximizing total revenue perspective, we often think about food and beverage, spa, golf activities. I love the addition of workspace rentals here. This is a value add I think not a lot of hotels are thinking about, especially if there is a family traveling and maybe just that one day mom has to take a call from the road instead of trying to make sure everybody stays quiet in the room. Let's get that workspace rental revenue. And there are so many opportunities here to really fine tune what's being offered, especially from like a food and beverage experience perspective, if you can bring some of that locality and like beyond the honey on the rooftop, maybe it's bringing in those fresh oranges from Ohio and you're getting that orange juice in the morning. Just little things like that, I think, can really create that emotional connection that wins the dollars. Anisha Yadav – 00:35:25: Exactly. And I think the third point kind of relates to that where we spoke about the outbound marketing channel. So it's email or voice and really knowing the preferences of your guests. What are the various things that you can do to drive one increase the wallet share and also drive the guests back to book your properties direct? Another thing that I think like you saw your data about groups and my segment in general, I'm seeing a lot of our customers going back to the refuse business from last couple of years and doing more strategic campaigns to those folks who they had declined or were not able to accommodate or canceled. And having an outbound campaign for that segment too, so that you're thinking through all of your strategies and not leaving anything on the table. We spoke about first party data collection, there are different ways in which you can kind of implement that. But like I said, everything really starts with getting your data foundation right for any initiative that you want to run, it can only be as good as your data is and making sure that you're really being thoughtful and have that whole playbook kind of mapped out for maximizing your demand generation. And Jen, I'll let you take the next one that's as a commercial leader on the call. Jennifer Hill – 00:36:31: Yeah, absolutely. So I think the focus on net operating income, on profit, on EBITDA, whatever is super important in terms of what you're focusing on with your ownership conversations. Communicating effectively about the potential return on investment and these marketing strategies is hugely helpful. The team at Revinate, I'm sure, can help you with that. Obviously, the metrics and the success and performance of the campaigns that we reviewed today can help you with that. But it is also really important to highlight the channel contribution, as we saw in the data earlier. Here, we're keeping more from and direct bookings. We're keeping more and can win longer lengths of stay through the voice channel. And that's going to make a significant impact overall on profitability. I think beyond that, and to touch on what Anisha just shared too, really reemphasizing that timing is a critical success factor. So if you have that data, you've implemented approaches proactively. So when you're running into a season where you have a gap, where government has pulled out, or you've had a big group cancellation, you're going to end up with better results than people who are just waiting for those dips to come into play. If we have an effective intervention plan early on, we can capture that with these messaging sequences that I think are so valuable. Anisha Yadav – 00:37:47: Absolutely. Yeah. And I think, like you said, it's all about the noise. So making sure that you're speaking the language of the owner as well. And like Jen mentioned, there is new reports that are coming out. Stay on top of it so you know more about what's happening in the market as well. Okay, so before we wrap up, we did want to give a shout. I'm going to be there at HITEC. My team's going to be at HITEC. I wanted to quickly flash our booth number here, which is 4601. So again, stop by to say hello. We'll have some more data, benchmarking guides out there as well. More success stories. So we'd love to just meet you guys. So that's HITEC. And then Jen, I'll let you share HSMAI. Jennifer Hill – 00:38:25: Yeah, we're going to be at HSMAI Commercial Strategy Week again. This is Tuesday and Wednesday of that week in Indianapolis. We'll be at the convention center, always co-located with HITEC, so you can see us both. And again, same thing. We're going to have a huge team there sharing with you best practices, demos, and some consultations. And you also will hear from me today that there's some exclusive branding updates happening. So be sure to stop by our booth to see those. Anisha Yadav – 00:38:51: That's exciting. Love that. Jennifer Hill – 00:38:52: Look forward to it. Anisha Yadav – 00:38:53: So with that, we are coming to the end of our session and we can take a couple questions. And let me just go into our chat and see if we have a lot of questions here, Jen. I'll let you take the first one. So the question, Jen, is about the report that you just shared and if you will be revising the data and if there's a cadence of updating this report moving forward. Jennifer Hill – 00:39:18: Great question. So we definitely are going to issue an update. Actually, I think it's in the works right now. Our team is working on refreshing the data. There is going to be a cadence of that type of report. It may not always be hyper-focused on the impact of the federal policy changes, but we'll start to transition to other ships by market or other impacts, whether that's inbound travel, things like that. And we're anticipating right now, after this initial grouping of two, the one in April and the one coming up here end of May, early June, will probably be quarterly, more than monthly. But that is the plan. Anisha Yadav – 00:39:53: That's awesome. And yeah, I think, like you said, it's changing a lot. So that's great that you guys have a plan of a cadence that you would be updating this report on. And I'm sure everyone on the call will love to get their hands on it as well. Another question, more on the segmented campaign. So again, I think there's a lot of feedback about folks looking at how they can implement these back at their properties. Where can I find some more examples of similar campaigns? So we have our Revinate. website. And if you go on the website, there is a section that's dedicated to inspirational campaigns. And our team does an amazing job of updating these on a monthly cadence, if not biweekly. So if you're not already signed up, make sure you signed up for our newsletter. And that way you can get these directly into your inbox as well. Awesome. So I think we're running on time and there are a couple more questions. So we will make sure that we respond to these. Jen and I will have a look at these and make sure we respond to you guys via email. So I really appreciate everyone taking the time to join us today. And thank you so much again. And hopefully we see you at the next event that we're going to be at. So like Jen mentioned, she's at HSMAI and I'm going to be at HITEC. So if you're there, stop by at our booth and we look forward to meeting you guys in person. Thank you so much. Jennifer Hill – 00:41:07: Thank you. Outro – 00:41:12: Thank you for joining us on this episode of Hotel Moment by Revinate. Our community of hoteliers is growing every week, and each guest we speak to is tackling industry challenges with the innovation and flexibility that our industry demands. If you enjoyed today's episode, don't forget to subscribe, rate, and leave a review. And if you're listening on YouTube, please like the video and subscribe for more content. For more information, head to Until next time, keep innovating. View source
Hospitality Net
18 hours ago
- Hospitality Net
Hotel Demand Management: Forecasting & Market Intelligence Explained
In a rapidly shifting travel landscape, hotels cannot afford to rely on gut instinct when assessing demand for their product. To remain competitive, knowledgeable, and prepared, today's top operators employ hotel demand management, which unites the methods of demand forecasting and market intelligence. This article explores hotel demand forecasting, why it matters, and how hoteliers can use internal data and external intelligence to improve pricing, resourcing, and strategic decision-making. What is Hotel Demand Forecasting? Demand forecasting is one of the primary responsibilities of hospitality management. Hotel demand forecasting is the process of collecting and analyzing historical and current data to estimate future demand for rooms, F&B outlets, and events. Key data inputs for hotel demand forecasting include: Past occupancy patterns Booking pace and pickup curves Seasonality Cancellations and no-show rates Events and holidays Market trends from source markets The goal of demand forecasting is to optimize occupancy and maximize revenue, allowing hoteliers to react to and make the most out of market changes. Why is Hotel Demand Forecasting Important? Demand forecasting plays a critical role in revenue management by providing data-driven insights into future customer demand. Accurate forecasts enable hoteliers to set optimal room rates, manage availability, and make informed decisions on promotions and distribution strategies. This leads to maximized revenue, improved operational efficiency, and enhanced guest experience through better resource planning. Dr Cindy Heo, Associate Professor of revenue management at the EHL (read More from Dr Cindy Heo) Demand forecasting serves as the basis for effective revenue management, which uses analytics and performance data to maximize a hotel's revenue. Without demand forecasting, there is no accuracy in predicting future booking volumes. Accurate forecasting helps hotels match supply with demand by optimizing room pricing and distribution. Additionally, rather than living in a state of putting out fires, hoteliers may safeguard their income and make proactive adjustments by forecasting peak and low seasons. How to Accurately Forecast Hotel Demand Understanding both external market information and internal performance data is necessary for accurate and efficient hotel demand forecasting. Combining what's happening within the property with what's happening across the market allows for a holistic assessment of what affects a hotel's demand. Use Market Segmentation When assessing demand, hoteliers must understand its different sources. Dividing the market into segments (e.g., corporate, leisure, group, OTA bookings) helps refine forecasts. Each segment has unique booking patterns, lead times, and price sensitivity, which hoteliers can leverage to gain the most out of each segment. For example, if your internal booking data shows that corporate travelers consistently dominate weekday stays, while weekend stays are predominantly leisure guests, you can use this pattern to adjust pricing and promotions accordingly. Offering weekday packages with business-friendly amenities or flexible cancellation terms could increase conversion for that segment. At the same time, weekend deals might emphasize spa access or late check-out to appeal to leisure travelers. Monitor Occupancy Trends Room reservations usually follow similar patterns to the past. Analyzing current and historical occupancy trends is essential to identifying high and low demand periods. Ask questions like: When does your hotel hit peak occupancy? Are there demand spikes linked to local festivals, holidays, or school breaks? Does demand dip during certain weekdays or off-seasons? Gathering these insights will help you plan rate adjustments, allocate resources, and prepare for potential shortfalls. For instance, if your historical data shows that your hotel sells out during a summer festival, you can raise rates and optimize staff scheduling well in advance. A simple occupancy forecasting model for a given day takes the occupancy rate for the previous year's exact date. However, more advanced models incorporate competitor data, market volatility, and event calendars, giving a more reliable view of future demand. Pickup, or the quantity of new reservations made for a given day over a predetermined time frame, is a crucial indicator to monitor. For instance, if you had 30 reservations for a Saturday two weeks ago and now have 45, the 15 more reservations signify the pickup for that time frame. Revenue managers can make proactive price adjustments before the changes are reflected in final, realized occupancy numbers by monitoring pickup trends to spot short-term changes in demand. Incorporate Hotel Pricing Strategy Setting more intelligent, responsive prices is one of the most beneficial results of precise hotel demand forecasts. Hotels can implement pricing, length-of-stay (LOS) restrictions, and minimum and maximum rate thresholds based on anticipated demand patterns thanks to forecasts, which serve as the basis for essential revenue decisions. Using Hotel Market Intelligence Hospitality businesses do not exist in a vacuum but are instead influenced by many external factors. While internal data is essential, market intelligence complements effective hotel demand management. What is Market Intelligence for Hotels? Market intelligence is the process of collecting, analyzing, and applying external data to understand market dynamics and the competitive landscape. For hotels, this means keeping a close eye on competitor pricing, local events, economic sentiment, and regional booking trends. Including external factors builds a more accurate picture of future demand. Forecasts are only as reliable as the inputs. Hoteliers can avoid blind spots and develop plans grounded in reality rather than guesswork by considering external variables. Why Market Intelligence is Important: Macro-Sensitivity of the Hospitality Industry The hospitality industry is widely considered one of the most macro-sensitive sectors, deeply influenced by economic cycles. During periods of growth, people and businesses spend more on traveling, dining, and events. In contrast, recessions often lead to reduced bookings and lower average daily rates (ADRs). Understanding if the economy is in a period of growth can help hoteliers predict a future rise in demand, and vice versa. Pro Tip: Chain hotel operators can analyze how the same brand performs across different markets as a signal of broader consumer sentiment Other macro-level indicators include: New infrastructure projects (airports, convention centers, public transport) Increased flight capacity into local airports New corporate offices or headquarters (suggesting future corporate travel demand) Market maturity – is it an emerging market or one at saturation? By incorporating macroeconomic signals into their forecasting models, hoteliers can better prepare for shifts in demand and position themselves ahead of the curve. Benefits of Market Intelligence The macro-level insights market intelligence provides fill in what your internal data may miss, when traveler behavior and preferences shift. The result? Less reactive and more proactive decision-making. The ability to read the market helps to stay ahead of competition by, for instance, identifying early signs of demand spikes from source markets. Furthermore, awareness of competitors enables you to recognize your hotel's unique competitive advantages. Maybe your competitors get complaining reviews about slow check-in and outdated rooms, while your hotel gets praise for service and modern design. Even if you haven't focused on these points earlier, the feedback shows what makes your hotel stand out, perhaps serving as a standpoint to charge higher rates. Best Practices of Hotel Demand Forecasting Effective forecasting starts with the correct data and the right mindset. Use a combination of internal KPIs (like occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR) alongside external signals such as competitor activity and local market trends. Furthermore, forecasts are not a one-and-done; they should be updated regularly to reflect new patterns and shifts in traveler behavior. Applying statistical models such as exponential smoothing and time-series analysis can help identify trends and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions. The most reliable forecasts are data-driven and flexible, evolving with the market. Common Challenges in Hotel Demand Forecasting One of the biggest challenges in demand forecasting is dealing with uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Factors such as unexpected events, shifts in consumer behavior, and competitor actions can significantly affect demand patterns. Hoteliers must therefore remain flexible, continuously update forecasts with real-time data, and integrate qualitative insights to maintain forecasting accuracy. Dr. Cindy Heo Limited or Inaccurate Data Accurate hotel demand forecasting depends on having access to high-quality internal and external data. However, many smaller or independent hotels may struggle with gathering inputs due to a lack of structured data systems. When internal data is missing or unreliable, benchmarking tools and OTA analytics can be a good starting point for forecasting. Still, each can have limitations, such as high cost or incomplete participation. Luckily, with some creativity, it is possible to see and follow market indicators from readily available sources, such as customer reviews, local news, and travel and tourism agencies. Other data sources include: Economic and political risk: Embassy websites, government advisories, and international relations updates that may affect traveler sentiment or safety perceptions Embassy websites, government advisories, and international relations updates that may affect traveler sentiment or safety perceptions Corporate travel demand: Occupancy rates in nearby office buildings, commercial rental prices (per sqm), and the tenant mix within business districts Occupancy rates in nearby office buildings, commercial rental prices (per sqm), and the tenant mix within business districts Leisure travel indicators: Arrival statistics from tourism boards, flight volumes, passenger traffic, and airline route data to measure inbound demand Arrival statistics from tourism boards, flight volumes, passenger traffic, and airline route data to measure inbound demand Infrastructure development: Local news, municipal government portals, and urban planning documents that signal upcoming demand drivers (e.g., new airports, convention centers, transit lines) Local news, municipal government portals, and urban planning documents that signal upcoming demand drivers (e.g., new airports, convention centers, transit lines) Future hotel supply: pipeline and crane reports, industry publications, and market contacts offering visibility into new hotel projects and competitive saturation Overreliance on Historical Trends While demand patterns often follow past patterns, the demand environment may quickly change, making relying solely on past data risky. Unpredictable disruptions from pandemics to geopolitical events can derail even the most accurate forecasts. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic affected every aspect of hotel guests' booking patterns, from booking window to length of stay. Demand forecasting models that do not account for possible changes in these factors cannot estimate demand reliably. However, as shown by Heo et al., forecasts based on historical data are still relevant in times of uncertainty and turbulence – they simply need to be appropriately analyzed. The research suggests using a weighted moving average pickup method instead. This method takes current bookings and adds a smart average of how bookings increased in the past for similar dates. It examines multiple years rather than just one and smoothes out anomalous data, such as COVID spikes or declines. It helps with longer-term forecasting and in situations where demand is more unpredictable. Additionally, it's easy to set up in Excel, making it perfect for small and mid-sized hotels without access to complex forecasting software. In addition to refining forecasting models, tools such as scenario planning can help hoteliers prepare for the unexpected and mitigate disruptions. Future projections will always remain a guessing game, but with a proper approach, hoteliers can make these guesses educated. FAQ: Hotel Demand Management & Market Intelligence What is the difference between demand forecasting and market intelligence? Forecasting aims to predict your hotel's future demand based on data. Market intelligence is the broader process of analyzing external phenomena such as trends and competitors to complement internal information. Can small hotels forecast demand effectively? Yes. Small hotels can build basic forecasts using occupancy history, seasonality, and local event calendars, even with limited data. OTA analytics and public data sources can help fill gaps cost-effectively. How often should forecasts be updated? Hoteliers should refresh forecasts weekly for short-term operational decisions and monthly or quarterly for long-term planning. Is demand management only for hoteliers? No. Demand forecasting is also essential when planning potential hotel developments to understand the possible revenue streams and target customers. The proposed methods can be useful for a plethora of service businesses. EHL Hospitality Business School Communications Department +41 21 785 1354 EHL View source
Hospitality Net
18 hours ago
- Hospitality Net
The Invisible Guest: How Dark Social Impacts Hotel Marketing
If you're tracking your hotel's marketing performance the traditional way — through UTMs, analytics, and CRM data — you're only seeing part of the picture. There's a whole world of referral traffic happening behind the scenes, and it's called dark social. For the hospitality industry, where word-of-mouth and personal recommendations are already king, dark social is a massive blind spot — but it's also a huge opportunity. What is Dark Social? Ever read a blog or see a post on social media, then screenshot to text or email? That is an example of dark social. Dark social refers to traffic and engagement that comes from private or semi-private channels — think direct messaging apps (like WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram DMs), email shares, or even private Slack groups. Chris Walker, CEO of Refine Labs, has great content on LinkedIn and YouTube around dark social, as it relates to the B2B space. Basically, anywhere your content is shared without traditional tracking parameters. When a potential guest texts your link to a friend, or a corporate planner shares your hotel's meeting space page via email, it shows up in Google Analytics as 'Direct' — but it's not someone typing your full URL into the search bar. In hospitality, personal recommendations aren't just nice-to-haves — they are often the deciding factor. The Surprising Data around Dark Social A Refine Labs data study concluded there was a 90% measurement gap in what software-based attribution is claiming versus what first-party customer-led data is showing. — Source: Cogwheel Marketing & Analytics And again in 2023 — Source: Cogwheel Marketing & Analytics Why Should Hotels Care About Dark Social? Hospitality brands, especially hotels and restaurants, rely heavily on data-driven marketing. But if you only optimize for what you can measure, you might be missing critical early-stage influence happening off the grid. Here's why dark social matters for hotels and restaurants: Higher trust factor: A friend recommending your hotel through a text has 10x the trust factor of a paid ad. A friend recommending your hotel through a text has 10x the trust factor of a paid ad. Shorter decision cycle: Guests who hear about you through private referrals often move faster through the booking funnel. Guests who hear about you through private referrals often move faster through the booking funnel. Missed attribution: You might think your organic search is crushing it — when really it's a private LinkedIn message that sent that high-value corporate client your way. Ignoring dark social doesn't just skew your data — it creates missed opportunities to amplify the conversations already happening. How Hotels Can Leverage Dark Social (Even If We Can't Track It) You can't fully 'own' dark social, but you can influence it. Here's how: 1. Make Your Content 'Share-Worthy' If you want hotel guests or meeting planners to share your content, give them a reason. Create assets that are visually appealing, easy to digest, and emotionally resonant — like behind-the-scenes property tours, event space walkthroughs, or 'top 5 reasons to stay' lists for your city. 2. Optimize for Screenshots Crazy but true: a lot of dark social sharing is a simple screenshot and send. Make sure your promotions, packages, and hotel info pages look good even when they're captured and cropped. Clean visuals matter. 3. Focus on Brand Sentiment Encourage loyalty and positive reviews, not just through TripAdvisor and Google, but directly with your guests. Remember, happy guests are your best dark social ambassadors. 4. Use Social Listening While you can't track private shares, you can monitor public conversations for hints. Pay attention to your brand mentions on Instagram Stories and LinkedIn posts. What are guests organically sharing or saying about you? 5. Educate Your Sales and Front Desk Teams Your team often hears feedback that never hits an online review. Teach them to recognize verbal 'dark social' and pass insights back to your hotel marketing teams. Bottom Line: Dark Social for Hotels Dark social isn't a glitch in your reporting — it's a fact of modern guest behavior. The goal isn't to obsess over perfect attribution but to build a hotel experience worth talking about — even when you can't see it happening. For hotel marketers, it's time to think beyond just clicks and conversions. The real influence may be happening where the analytics can't reach — but your guest experience, content quality, and brand story still can. About Cogwheel Marketing Cogwheel Marketing™️ is a full service digital marketing agency specializing in branded hotels, first leveraging brand systems then coupling that with supplemental strategies to maximize total online presence. Their reporting and business intelligence tool, Cogwheel Analytics, aggregates data from multiple sources to allow companies to identify trends and opportunities in their online presence. Our defined processes ensure the best positioning for your hotel against the competitive set and against other hotels of the same brand. Let us work with your sales and revenue management teams to identify and close the gaps and target your ideal guests. View source
