World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says
The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast. World demand will rise by just 700,000 bpd, it said, implying a sizeable surplus.
Despite making those changes, the IEA said that rising refinery processing rates aimed at meeting summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market and the latest supply hike from OPEC+ announced on Saturday had not had much effect.
'The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals,' the agency said in a monthly report.
'Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances.'
Earlier this week, ministers and executives from OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors said the output increases are not leading to higher inventories, showing that markets are thirsty for more oil.
Next year, the IEA sees demand growth averaging 720,000 bpd, some 20,000 bpd lower than previously thought, with supply growth rising by 1.3 million bpd, also implying a surplus.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Arab News
43 minutes ago
- Arab News
OPEC says world economy may do better in second half of year
LONDON: OPEC said the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year despite trade conflicts and that refineries' crude intake would remain elevated to meet the uptick in summer travel, helping to support the demand outlook. In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026 after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was robust. 'India, China, and Brazil are outperforming expectations so far, while the United States and the Eurozone are experiencing a continued rebound from last year,' OPEC said in the report. 'With this, the second-half 2025 economic growth may turn out better than currently expected.' The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the 12 OPEC members plus allies including Russia, is pumping more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts to support the market. The report also showed that in June, OPEC+ pumped 41.56 million bpd, up 349,000 bpd from May. This is slightly less than the 411,000 bpd hike called for by the group's increase in its June quotas.
Al Arabiya
2 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
Ukrainians welcome US aid but see Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Putin as too long
Ukrainians welcomed President Donald Trump's pledge of more US-made weapons in their fight against Russia's invasion, even though it is unclear what exactly they will get and how quickly. The time frame for further arms deliveries that European countries have agreed to pay for is crucial. Russia is making a summer push to break through along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, and its drones and missiles are hammering Ukrainian cities more than at any time in the past three years. Ukrainian officials have made no direct comment about Trump's decision to allow Russia 50 days to reach a deal to end the war or face what he said would be very severe economic sanctions. While some believe strict tariffs on Moscow could be a game changer, the postponement until September struck others as being too long. For Russia, Trump's delay of new sanctions is a reprieve. Senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev commented: 'Oh how much can change both on the battlefield and with the mood of those leading the US and NATO in 50 days.' Russian state television pointed out that Trump's decision would bring a bigger financial burden for Europe. Russia currently holds about 20 percent of Ukraine. Ukraine's depleted army has recently been losing more territory, but there is no sign of a looming collapse on the front line, analysts say. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he spoke to Trump after the Republican leader's Oval Office announcement Monday, expressing gratitude for the decision to send more Patriot air defense missiles that are vital to defend Ukrainian cities. 'We discussed … the necessary measures and decisions to provide greater protection for people from Russian attacks and strengthen our positions,' Zelenskyy said on Telegram. 'We agreed to talk more often and coordinate our steps in the future.' Trump and Zelenskyy have had a notoriously fraught relationship, and Washington's consent to providing more weaponry has eased Kyiv's worries. Even so, some Ukrainians felt the US decision won't alter the course of the war. 'If we take the situation as a whole, it hardly looks like this will fundamentally change anything,' Kyiv resident Oles Oliinyk, 33, told The Associated Press. Nina Tokar, 70, was also skeptical. 'I have very little faith in (Trump). He says one thing today, and tomorrow he may say something else.' A Ukrainian army officer fighting in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region said the 50-day delay on sanctions is a very long time. 'They (the Russians) will say 'Give us two more weeks,' and then in two weeks 'Give us another week.' It will drag on until October or November,' he told AP, using only the call sign 'Cat' in keeping with the rules of the Ukrainian military. Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp agreed. 'I do believe that the 50 days that Mr. Trump has announced is rather long. It's up to September 2. I think that's rather long.' Much remains to be worked out about how the weapons, especially the Patriot systems, will be provided, Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said in Brussels on Tuesday. But in an indication that Europe is relieved that the US hasn't walked away from the conflict, he added: 'The most important thing is that we now have an American readiness to deliver these most needed weapons.' Some European countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, still rely heavily on Russia for energy supplies and could be hit hard by Trump's threatened secondary sanctions on countries that buy its oil and gas – an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy. Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Trump's 50-day delay was a signal for Europe to 'prepare ourselves because we still have some member states that are exposed to imports of oil and oil products from Russia.' German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it remains to be seen whether Trump's announcement will be a turnaround, but what is decisive is that the tone has changed. 'The president's threat to impose sanctions after 50 days is significant progress,' Pistorius told ARD television.
Al Arabiya
4 hours ago
- Al Arabiya
Oracle to invest $3 bln in AI, cloud expansion in Germany, Netherlands
Oracle will invest $3 billion over the next five years in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands to meet upbeat demand, the company said in separate statements on Tuesday. The cloud service provider plans to allocate $2 billion to Germany and $1 billion to the Netherlands. Major technology firms have poured tens of billions of dollars into developing AI infrastructure following the success of OpenAI's ChatGPT. Oracle, whose cloud offerings support companies in building AI infrastructure, has seen its shares surge about 38 percent so far this year. In June, the company raised its annual revenue forecast, driven by strong demand for its AI-related cloud services. Oracle is also part of a joint venture called Stargate, aimed at delivering large-scale computing capabilities to OpenAI.
