FLAMES RETOOL TRACKER: Can Dustin Wolf avoid sophomore slump?
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Wolf's performances in the crease for the Calgary Flames throughout the 2024-25 season not only earned him a Calder Trophy nomination, they were also a major factor in the Flames staying in the playoff fight right until the very end.
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If Wolf can avoid any regression, it will at least give the Flames a shot next season.
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Can he, though? The sophomore slump is infamous in every sport and the idea that players in their second year often take a step back is almost accepted as fact.
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Is it true for goalies, though?
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If we look at the three most recent goaltenders who earned Calder Trophy nominations, it's hard to come up with any real consensus.
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Previous Calder nominees in Year 2
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Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner is the most recent example. After posting a .914 save percentage in his Calder-nominated season, he followed it up by posting a .905 mark in 2023-24.
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A couple years earlier, Alex Nedeljkovic posted a .932 save percentage with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2020-21 to a .901 the next season when he was with the Detroit Red Wings.
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A few years prior to that, Jordan Binnington earned a Calder nomination after putting up a .927 save percentage in 2018-19 with the St. Louis Blues and then followed it up with a .912 the next season.
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So yes, all three saw their save percentage dip the season after they were named as one of the top three rookies of the year.
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There are, of course, external factors that need to be considered: The context matters.
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It's worth noting that when we dig just a little bit deeper, we can find goalies who burst onto the scene in their first full seasons and didn't get nominated for the Calder who subsequently saw their numbers improve in Year 2. Igor Shesterkin would be the best example, having posted a .916 save percentage in 2020-21 and then jumping to .935 the next season.
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So there's no hard rule that goalies automatically will regress. Even among the three recent Calder nominees we did mention, Binnington backstopped Canada to 4 Nations Face-Off glory in February while Skinner is playing in the Stanley Cup Final right now, so the season-to-season drops in save percentage only tell us so much.
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