Fantasy Premier League: Every burning question answered ahead of Gameweek 38

New York Times

23-05-2025

It's the final gameweek of the season in Fantasy Premier League and, as ever, there are likely to be plenty of surprises.
Typically, in Gameweek 38, we see rotated line-ups, teams 'on the beach' for their last game before going off on summer holidays and some big scorelines — over the previous five years, this final gameweek has averaged more than 20 per cent more goals per match than the rest of that season.
Advertisement
All we can do is prepare the best that we can with the information available to us — and hope for some luck.
Here, we will address some burning questions and provide general advice on how to approach Gameweek 38.
Before looking at transfers and team selections, have a look at FPL analyst Rob T's numbers for expected goals and clean sheets. These are from spread odds and are handy for helping with FPL decisions, especially when looking at only one gameweek.
This is a useful guide to which teams are expected to score the most goals on Sunday, or who the favourites are to keep a clean sheet.
This will help identify the games where we are likely to see the biggest scorelines, so we can target said players.
💹 PL GW38 matchups
Early look at market projections for the final round of PL fixtures, covering:
🔹 projected goals & clean sheet odds
🔹 teams to target
🔹 #FPL Assistant Manager projections
🔹 WDL odds pic.twitter.com/74VEjg7xmK
— Rob T (@robtFPL) May 20, 2025
Arsenal defender Saliba is injured and has been ruled out of Gameweek 38 by their manager Mikel Arteta.
If you have a decent alternative in your squad you can play instead, I would bench Saliba (£6.5m) and use this week's free transfer in attack.
However, if you have to transfer him out, your top targets should be Milos Kerkez (£5.2m) or Tino Livramento (£4.6m). Alternatively, you could replace him with one of his team-mates: Jakub Kiwior (£4.9m) or Ben White (£6.1m) should both start away to Southampton, with fellow defenders Gabriel (£6.1m) and now Jurrien Timber (£5.6m) also on the absentees list.
Arsenal, Newcastle and Bournemouth are the three teams most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend and the players mentioned above all possess attacking threat, too.
Advertisement
Newcastle's fixture is one of the best of the gameweek from an attacking point of view. An Everton side who have nothing to play for go to St James' Park in what is a must-win game for Eddie Howe's men as they try to qualify for the Champions League.
This is why we have to give Isak every opportunity to be fit before considering a sale. The Swede has 23 goals and six assists this season, and is the highest-scoring forward in the game. But if he's a doubt going into this final weekend having missed last Sunday's match with Arsenal, then we might have to sell.
If we don't get any definite news on his status and you have a really good first substitute, you can risk starting Isak. I imagine he will either be in the starting XI or won't be in the squad at all — it's just too risky to take a gamble on him.
The top replacements are Evanilson (£5.8m), Ollie Watkins (£9.1m), Yoane Wissa (£6.9m) and even Danny Welbeck (£5.5m) if you fancy a differential.
When looking at the final day of the season, it's good to consider narratives and game states. Of the 10 fixtures in Gameweek 38, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea is the one I would expect to see the fewest goals in. These are two decent defences and I can see it being a cagey affair as both teams will see it as a must-win game, again for Champions League qualification reasons.
Palmer also hasn't been in great form, so I would look to sell the England international if you can. He isn't a must-sell as he's still nailed-on to start, on Chelsea's penalties and will be a huge differential. However, the alternatives are better.
If Palmer is your biggest issue, then sell to add either Bukayo Saka (£10.3m) or Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m). Bowen is also sure to start for West Ham at relegated Ipswich and play the 90 minutes, and is the talisman for his side. Saka's Arsenal have a fantastic fixture and I expect him to start, but his expected minutes are less certain than with Bowen.
Advertisement
Anthony Gordon (£7.4m), Harvey Barnes (£5.9m), Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) and Luis Diaz (£7.5m) are all great differentials who also allow you to upgrade another spot in your squad if you have two or more free transfers.
If you still own the Brazilian, then he's an easy sell. Wolves actually have a very nice fixture (home against Brentford) but with his benching last gameweek, he's too much of a risk.
It's an easy move to one of Evanilson, Wissa or Welbeck, depending on your risk appetite. They are all cheaper than Cunha, so can be acquired in one move.
This is a tough one because the likes of Kevin De Bruyne (£9.6m) and Omar Marmoush (£7.4m) are good options if they start. It's no secret that we usually get leaked Manchester City team news before the FPL deadline via social media and if you can be present around then, I would definitely recommend this.
With all the games in Gameweek 38 kicking off at the same time on Sunday, we should get leaks for a few teams.
If we hear that De Bruyne is on the bench, then I think it's a fairly easy move to Saka or Bowen. If you have Marmoush, then I would be tempted to move off him to Bournemouth's Evanilson even if he starts for City, due to the latter's promising fixture against relegated Leicester.
In the final week, you can chase by either going for a differential captain or buying low-owned players you think can do well.
Also, remember chasing a rank tier (such as the coveted top 10,000) is different to pursuit of a mini-league rival.
To differentiate from a single fellow manager, you have to look at their team and try to predict who they will captain, and possibly bring in a player they are unlikely to own. Similarly, if you are protecting a lead in this scenario, then you try and cover as many players as possible.
When you are chasing a rank tier, it's harder to make up ground. If you are 10 points behind the top 10,000, for example, you will need to score around 13 points more than the top 10,000 average to stand a chance of pulling it off.
No! There is so much information to be gained this week. We will have the press-conference news for all 20 teams in good time this week and those bulletins are sure to throw up a few surprises. Also, keeping an eye on photos and video of clubs training in the next few days is going to be vital, especially for making decisions over the likes of Isak or any other players who are a doubt.
Advertisement
As mentioned earlier, try to make your transfers as close to Sunday's deadline (2.30pm UK, 9.30am ET) as possible and be prepared for all scenarios — you might learn shortly before the clock strikes zero that a player in your team who you didn't expect to miss out is only a substitute or isn't involved at all.
(Top photo of Alexander Isak:)