Met Office downplays reports of 600-mile long band of rain hitting UK

Yahoo

20 hours ago

The Met Office has responded to claims that a huge rain storm is heading the UK's way in late August.
Reports that Hurricane Erin will cause a 600-mile-long band of rain to sweep through the UK later this month have been downplayed by the Met Office.
Although not expected to make direct landfall, Erin is forecast to bring heavy rain to the eastern coast of the United States and Caribbean islands after strengthening over the weekend.
According to some media reports, citing weather data from WXCharts, the effects of Erin will be felt in the UK in the shape of a rain storm either 400 or 600 miles long hitting the country on 28 August.
The reports claim it will bring heavy rainfall to cities such as Belfast, Glasgow, Birmingham, London and Manchester, with Cardiff and Bristol being particularly badly affected.
But the Met Office told Yahoo News UK that an accurate forecast is too difficult to predict 10 days in advance – but it did say there is a chance of wet and windy weather later this month.
A spokesperson said the date reported when the rain storm could hit "is a way away and weather forecasts become clearer closer to the time".
They added: "Our short-range forecast uses current observations, data and modelling, whereas the long range is based on trends and focuses on average conditions over a broad area and time frame.
"With that in mind, the long range for the rest of August does mention the potential for changeable conditions and a small chance of widely wetter and windier weather developing."
In its long-range forecast for Friday 22 August to Sunday 31 August, the Met Office says the beginning of this period will be marked by fine and dry weather.
However, it says: "This will be increasingly eroded from the west as frontal systems start to move in from the Atlantic through the weekend, leading to more changeable conditions."
In addition, a deep area of low pressure is likely in the North Atlantic Ocean because of Hurricane Erin, currently threatening the east coast of the US.
The forecast says: "The changeable period will likely continue through the last week of August, especially in the north and west, with a small chance of widely wetter and windier weather developing."
Will Hurricane Erin affect the UK weather?
While some media outlets suggest a massive deluge of rain as a result of Hurricane Erin, BBC meteorologist Simon King said that the low-pressure system – now over 3,000 miles away – won't bring extreme weather as it is 'physically impossible'.
He explained: 'Rain doesn't fall in a continuous sheet stretching for hundreds of miles so there'll be no 'wall of rain' to come with it either.'
While Erin is unlikely to bring extreme weather, King does concede that it could result in wet and windy weather in the UK from the middle of next week.
He added: 'While Erin is still over 3,000 miles away from the UK, it will eventually weaken as it moves across the North Atlantic and arrive to the west of the UK as an area of low pressure – a process we often see in the UK from mid-August as the hurricane season starts to pick up.'
However, he said there are 'still lots of uncertainties with the forecast' as it is over a week away, and after the upcoming bank holiday weekend.
A Met Office spokesperson told The Mirror that there is also 'uncertainty' about the weather prospects for the middle of next week due to the nature of longer-range predictions.
What about this week?
Following last week's fourth heatwave of the summer, the rest of this week is set to remain largely dry, following a warm start.
Sunday's highest temperature was 27.7C in Somerset, while West Sussex and Inverness, Scotland, also reached 27C.
Tuesday is set to be cloudy, but some bright and sunny spells could break through. Northern areas may experience some drizzle, while the south-west of England is at risk of heavy showers.
Maximum temperatures are expected to fall to 24C by Wednesday and Thursday, the Met Office said, but could go back up to the high 20s again by the weekend.
How accurate are weather forecasts?
The Met Office says that thanks to technology, its four-day forecast is now just as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago.
It uses its Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for its forecasts, verified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The Met Office says that in the past 12 months that 92% of its three-hourly temperature forecasts - given between three to seven days ahead of time - have been accurate to within either 2°C above or below on the current day.
However, it said that because weather is a "chaotic" system, the slightest shift in conditions can lead to inaccuracies in predicting what is to come, meaning it is better to rely on a number of forecast models as opposed to just one.
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