Bitcoin Price Odds Reveal $120,000 Is 2025's Most Popular Retail Bet

Forbes

3 days ago

A cutout of US President Donald Trump holding a Bitcoin is displayed on a group of servers during ... More The Bitcoin Conference at The Venetian Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada, on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Ian Maule / AFP) (Photo by IAN MAULE/AFP via Getty Images)
The crypto market looks quiet on the surface, but traders are bracing for big moves in both directions by year-end.
Bitcoin is currently trading just above $105,300, Ethereum holds above $2,618, while other major altcoins staying flat. Solana is up 4.2% today, Dogecoin 2.1%, Shiba Inu 2.5%, XRP 2.9%, BNB 1.5%, while Cardano rose 2.6%.
Despite the double-digit rally over the past few months, crypto traders aren't convinced bitcoin will hover around $100,000 for long. In fact, many are eyeing another breakout to close out 2025.
According to data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, the biggest volume of trades is flowing into the $120,000 price bracket.
As of early June, over $1.1 million has been wagered on bitcoin ending the year at exactly $120,000. That makes it the most crowded bet on Polymarket, implying 73% odds of hitting that target.
Trailing close behind is the $130,000 range, with $1.14 million in volume and implied odds of 61%. The $150,000 mark — a far cry from today's levels — has $1.6 million in volume, though with just 37% odds.
The odds and dollar volumes fall off a cliff as the targets get more extreme. The dream scenario of bitcoin crossing $1 million by year-end has drawn just $897,310 in wagers, representing a 3% chance according to Polymarket.
Bets on a bearish turnaround are even less popular. Only $279,919 has been placed on a $20,000 outcome, with just 4% odds. As of now, six-figure bitcoin is what most retail investors are banking on.
Although implying big upside, Polymaket bets are relatively conservative compared to the multi-hundred-thousand — even multi-million — predictions from the Bitcoin network's most vocal believers.
Strategy's Saylor says bitcoin could hit $13 million within the next 21 years. The timeline lines up with bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins, and Saylor's thesis is built on the idea that BTC will capture a sizable share of global capital over time.
Twitter founder and Block CEO Jack Dorsey is also all-in. Last year, in an interview with Pirate Wires, he predicted that bitcoin's market cap will hit $20 trillion and the price will cross the $1 million mark by 2030.
'At least a $1 million. I do think it hits that number and goes beyond,' Dorsey said. 'Everyone who works on it, or gets paid in it, or buys it for themselves, they're making the entire ecosystem better, which makes the price go up.'
Block backs that outlook with real dollars. According to the company's own blog post in 2024, Block puts 10% of gross profit from Bitcoin-related products into BTC every month. It's also building a hardware wallet and developing an end-to-end Bitcoin mining system.
'The internet will have a native currency,' Dorsey added in his interview with Pirate Wires founder and tech investor Mike Solana. 'It's just a matter of time.'