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FIIs net sell over ₹6,600 cr in F&O on Tuesday; what's worrying them now?
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) seem to have turned circumspect on the Indian stock market following the sharp volatility in recent trading sessions. According to data from SEBI, FIIs had started the May month on an optimistic note, and net bought shares worth ₹11,656 crore in the first five trading sessions of the month, till May 8 in the cash market. However, in the last three trading days, FIIs have net sold stocks worth ₹3,029.09 crore. In comparison, domestic institutional investors have net bought shares to the tune of ₹12,999.90 crore in the last three days. Apart from the cash market activity, FIIs have now turned net sellers in the derivatives - futures & options (F&O) market for the May series, owing to aggressive net sales to the tune of ₹6,668.28 crore in Tuesday's trading session. FIIs net sales in May F&O series now stands at ₹1,993.26 crore. Market experts believe that the recent change in FIIs stance could be more due to the sudden sharp spike in the market on Monday. ALSO READ | Where to invest as markets look past trade, India-Pak war, Q4 earnings? FIIs seem to be taking-off some hard money out of the market following the sharp rally on Monday, says Kranthi Bathini, Director-Equity at WealthMills Securities. Kranthi recommends this could be a short-term trading activity, the larger picture should get clearer over the next 10 days. FIIs will also be closely tracking how the US trade war pans out in the coming weeks; in general, FIIs are waiting to take a long-term stance on India, Kranthi added. Here's what FIIs did in the May series thus far Significant liquidation - Amid the recent sell-off FIIs open interest (OI) in index futures has declined by 14.7 per cent in the last three days, to 1.46 lakh contracts. FIIs OI at the start of the May series stood at 1.36 lakh contracts, and had reached a high of 1.72 lakh contracts on May 8 - primarily owing to buying in Nifty futures. Following the recent liquidation, FIIs fresh OI build-up in Nifty futures now stands at 21 per cent as against a peak of 48.1 per cent build-up. Meanwhile, OI in Bank Nifty futures have dropped sharply to 29,591 contracts much below that then OI at the start of the May series (36,110 contracts). OI in MidCap Nifty futures has dipped by 12 per cent from a high of 36,569 contracts on May 9 to 32,167 contracts. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 index has gained 1.3 per cent in the last three trading sessions, and is up 1.4 per cent in the May series thus far. FIIs v/s DIIs v/s Retail v/s Proprietary traders - who is bullish/ bearish? Data from the NSE derivatives segment shows that FIIs who had turned net bullish (long) in index futures on May 7, saw the long-short ratio hit a high of 1.09 on the following day. The long-short ratio is derived taking into account the total buy-side open positions versus sell-side open positions in index futures. A value in excess of 1 indicates higher open positions on the buy side of trade. However, within the next three trading sessions FIIs long-short ratio has now plunged to 0.6 - this ratio now implies presence of nearly 2 short bets in index futures for every long trade. Nandish Shah, senior technical & derivative analyst at HDFC Securities recommends that a lower long-short ratio could work in favour of the Indian market, as this could mean that FIIs may come to buy at lower levels, thus providing cushion in case of a dip. Similarly, proprietary traders' long-short ratio has dropped to its lowest point at 0.31 since October 1, 2024. This ratio implies that proprietary traders are holding 3 short positions for every long bet in index futures. Meanwhile, DIIs and retail investors continue to hold bullish positions. DIIs long-short ratio stands at 2.4, and retail at 1.2. Here's what Nifty options data hints at The immediate ceiling for the Nifty lies near 24,800 – 25,000 levels, and a strong close above this range could ignite a fresh round of short covering, potentially taking the index to 25,200 – 25,300, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research analyst at SAMCO Securities in a note. On the flip side, a slip beneath 24,500 might open the gates for minor profit-taking toward the 24,370 mark — a zone that could yet again offer an entry point for the bulls, the note added.
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