Colorado's economy delivers mixed results in mid-2025
By the numbers: Metro Denver's inflation rate through June ticked up to 2.3% year-over-year, nudging past May's 2.2%, per a new report from the University of Colorado Boulder's Leeds School of Business and the Secretary of State's office.
That's still below the national average of 2.7% in June, which marked the swiftest pace since February as Trump-era tariffs began taking a bigger bite out of the economy.
Stunning stat: New business filings statewide surged to 51,200 in the second quarter of 2025, up 19% year-over-year — marking Colorado's strongest second quarter on record, according to Brian Lewandowski with the Leeds School of Business.
The intrigue: It's unclear what's behind the spike or which sectors are seeing the most new ventures. But Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold floated a theory: a mix of entrepreneurial spirit and financial pressure.
Some Coloradans may be looking to supplement income "after noticing that their money at the grocery store isn't going as far as it used to," Griswold told reporters Monday.
Zoom out: Job growth across Colorado rose to 0.4% last month, the state's fourth-highest rate on record.
Labor force participation held strong at 67.7% — sixth-highest nationally.
Yes, but: Home prices in Colorado continued to climb last month — up 2.3% year-over-year.
What they're saying: The state's economy "has remained resilient," Griswold said in a statement. "But many Coloradans struggle with the cost of living, and Trump's new law will increase the cost of energy, health care and more," the Democrat warned, referring to the president's " big, beautiful bill."
What we're watching: Colorado's resilience could soon face a tougher test.
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Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice: Don't evade tariffs
The Justice Department is putting American companies on notice that they could be prosecuted if they chose to evade President Trump's tariffs, even as the legality of the president's "Liberation Day" duties remain unsettled in US courts. The message came in a DOJ announcement earlier this month stipulating that prosecutors would step up investigations into suspiciously classified imports and charge those who misidentify products with fraud. 'While the DOJ has always taken some customs cases, this is a different, more aggressive, visible stance than they usually would,' said Thompson Coburn trade lawyer Robert Shapiro. Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances The plan — to be carried out by the DOJ's new Market, Government, and Consumer Fraud Unit — marks a shift in enforcement tactics from prior administrations that relied mostly on policing misconduct through administrative proceedings, even during Trump's first term in office. The new Trump administration instead wants to prioritize criminal charges against companies and individuals that try to evade US tariffs. The overarching strategy was first outlined by Matthew R. Galeotti, head of the Justice Department's Criminal Division, who wrote in a May memo that an increasing focus on white collar crime would include "trade and customs fraudsters, including those who commit tariff evasion." At the same time, the Trump administration finds itself in the unusual position of defending the legality of the duties it pledges to enforce. Oral arguments in a federal lawsuit challenging the president's tariffs are set to take place before the US Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., this Thursday. The small business importers challenging the legal standing of the duties already proved it was possible to temporarily derail Trump's global tariffs with a lower court victory in May. In a separate challenge, two toy manufacturers are scheduled to make their own arguments against Trump's tariffs before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Sept. 30, following their own lower court victory. 'We're going to raise the ante' Tariff violations can be prosecuted under civil or criminal laws. However, even fraud cases were often handled administratively by past administrations, according to Shapiro. 'I think the administration is just saying we're going to raise the ante on this,' Shapiro said. University of Kansas School of Law professor Raj Bhala said laws against customs fraud have long been in force, but the appetite for the DOJ and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to clamp down on violations has increased. Historically, Bhala and other trade lawyers said, prosecutors focused government resources on suspected tariff violations by US adversaries such as China, Iran, and North Korea, and particularly on export controls meant to keep controlled items from shipping to those countries. Producer-exporters, especially in China and other high-tariff regions, have been using evasion techniques for decades, mostly to skirt anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders, Bhala said. But now, under more imposing tariffs, incentives to evade duties have spiked 'enormously.' 'What is clear is that a lot of companies are looking for a way to limit the impact of the duties,' Shapiro said. In this new tariff and enforcement environment, trade experts suspect that corporate America and its trading partners are on high alert. Erika Trujillo, a trade attorney with customs risk management firm SEIA Compliance Technologies, said the shift toward more enforcement happening at the DOJ and less through administrative procedures could increase politically motivated targeting of companies viewed as adverse to the Trump administration's interests. 'I do think trade restrictions were used as both a sword and a shield for foreign companies, or in terms of dealing with international trade,' Trujillo said. Common tariff evasion techniques include misclassifying goods, falsely labeling a product's country of origin, making minor modifications to a product while it's in a lower-tariff jurisdiction to pass it off as manufactured there, and transhipping goods through lower-tariff jurisdictions. Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump's tariffs 'It's hard to imagine that any well-run company that has supply chains stretching across the globe — particularly in higher-tariff jurisdictions like China or Cambodia — would not be having vigorous discussions to ensure every step in the supply chain is properly documented and audited,' Bhala said. Bhala cautions that the stakes are high for importers subject to US jurisdiction. 'They're the importer of record and they're the ones who are liable for the tariffs,' he said. 'And false declarations are what we call 'go to jail stuff.'' For fraud, fines can also be assessed, up to the domestic value of the merchandise. For civil violations made based on negligent actions, maximum penalties are two times the underpayment of duties, in addition to original duties. For violations based on gross negligence, penalties increase to four times the underpayment of duties. For businesses looking to assess their risk, US Customs maintains an electronic system called the Automated Commercial Environment (ACT) that allows importers to view what their classification data looks like to customs. Small and midsize companies may find it more difficult to evaluate their compliance risks compared to multinational firms. 'If you're an SME, you probably have one or two lawyers, and they're not necessarily trade specialists,' Bhala said. Plus, there are different rules for thousands of products. For example, a typical NAFTA good, he explained, traverses the US-Canada border roughly four times. 'It's really difficult for companies of that size to be dealing with this,' Trujillo said. One major challenge is finding affordable internal expertise. 'Almost every company I know is actively hiring for both customs and export controls, and sanctions. You're basically stuck going to law firms or other external consultancy, and the small and medium-sized firms are maybe not going to have the budget to pay $1,100 an hour.' Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet For certain suspected violations like those made by mistake, Shapiro said it doesn't make economic sense for the DOJ to get involved. 'They don't have the manpower for it,' he said. But a new enforcement policy seems to fit the Trump administration's broader tariff agenda, he added. 'If you're going to have this tariff policy, you're going to have to take a more aggressive stance, because it's a huge ocean of imports, and it's very hard for customs to enforce against everyone.' Alexis Keenan is a legal reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow Alexis on X @alexiskweed. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Yahoo Finance Chartbook: 35 charts tell the story of markets and the economy midway through 2025
The US stock market has not only survived one of the most hectic starts to a trading year on record — it's thriving. After falling 19% in a matter of weeks earlier this year, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is back at record highs, but a sense of unease about the status of this rally persists. There's the perpetual debate about stock valuations, which are historically elevated, as the stability of the artificial intelligence growth story remains in question for some investors. The potential fallout from President Trump's tariff and immigration policies — and their impact on US economic growth — has emerged as the top concern among economists who are still questioning the resilience of the US economy. But the fifth volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook also presents a calming explanation for why stocks have inflected higher in a V-shaped pattern after April brought one of the worst three-day stretches since World War II. Corporate profit expectations are picking up, particularly in areas that have been bid up the most in the market. By some measures, the US consumer remains in solid shape. And even after a roaring rally, several strategists argue investor sentiment is far from peaking. Trump has also dialed up the pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, but this edition of the Chartbook shows the central bank taking less of a starring role in this market moment. When and how the central bank adjusts its policy seems a less pressing question than what has prompted stocks to climb this year's wall of worry and what forces could prompt investors to keep climbing. Debating stocks at record highs | Another economic turning point | A shifting investing landscapeThe following commentary has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Debating stocks at record highs Mike Wilson, chief investment officer, Morgan Stanley "[This] chart shows the earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500. It leads actual earnings estimates, and as you can see, we are currently experiencing one of the strongest V-shaped recoveries in history, rivaling the COVID rebound in 2020, the last time we were so out of consensus on the market. Many market participants do not appreciate how strong this very fundamental driver has been over the past several months, which helps to not only justify the rally to date, but also why we remain bullish on the next 6-12 months." Ben Snider, senior equity strategist, Goldman Sachs "Despite the recent new record highs notched by the S&P 500, investor positioning data show no sign of exuberance. The GS Equity Sentiment Indicator combines nine measures of positioning in US stocks across investor groups, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and retail investors. Today, the indicator stands at a 0, reflecting a neutral stance in US stocks on average across investors. While valuation multiples sit at elevated levels relative to history, constrained positioning indicates room for the recent equity rally to continue." Binky Chadha, chief global strategist, Deutsche Bank "While equity markets have recovered completely from their Liberation Day sell-off, equity positioning is only back up to neutral. Equity positioning tends to align with earnings growth but is currently still below what we expect for Q2 and we look for a typical earnings season rally. Both the company analyst consensus and DB forecasts see earnings growth dipping in Q3 as the full impact of tariffs hit, before picking up again. Our outlook out to year-end sees a rise in equity positioning as one of the drivers of further upside for equity prices." Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy, Barclays "Heading into 2Q25 earnings season, Big Tech is once again trading at ~29x [forward earnings]. ... While this seems high at first take, the group is still trading ~2 turns below where it started the year because Big Tech is one of the only segments of the S&P 500 where an improved YTD earnings outlook is available at a better YTD price. US equity upside has broadened in 2025 — the percentage of SPX constituents beating the index has risen to the highest level in about 2 years — but most of these gains have been fueled by multiple expansion. Big Tech is the rare exception. ... With [the second quarter of 2025] poised to be the first quarter to see material impacts from incremental tariffs, Big Tech retains an outsized role in keeping overall SPX performance healthy, and we believe the group is well-positioned to do so." Read more: Live coverage of corporate earnings Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, Stifel "While it's absolutely true Big Tech is much more profitable than the late-1990s Bubble, … the over-valuation is the same." Tom Lee, head of research, Fundstrat "Over the past five years, the market has survived six black swan events. If this were a company that had survived six near-extinction events and continued to prosper, its stock would be assigned a higher multiple. However, the equal-weight S&P 500 P/E has actually declined from 17.6x (pre-COVID) to the current 16.9x. If the market is truly indestructible, there's still plenty of room for multiples to rise." Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall, BofA Securities equity and quant strategy "While the S&P 500 screens as statistically expensive on most valuation metrics we track, comparing today's multiple to prior cycles is apples to oranges, in our view, given the mix shift within the index. The S&P 500 has shifted from low-margin, asset- and labor-intensive industries (70% manufacturing in 1980) to high-margin, innovation-oriented industries (50% of the index today)." Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer, Truist "A key question for the second half of the year is whether market leadership will broaden. Small- and mid-cap stocks remain well below prior highs, partly due to weaker earnings. A shift would likely require both economic improvement and broader earnings growth. Until trends improve, we continue to favor large-cap equities with a growth tilt." Citi equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert "This reporting season is critical for Small/Mid Cap and more cyclical sectors as earnings growth has been paltry for more than two years. However, Wall Street analysts have continued to model an uplift in fundamentals only to be continually disappointed. Good results this quarter and conviction in forward estimates are critical for investors to believe the return to positive EPS growth is near and for US stock market performance to broaden." Richard Bernstein, CEO, Richard Bernstein Advisors "Several points are worth noting in this chart: Nasdaq surges ahead of Dow Jones Utilities only during more speculative periods and bubbles. Utilities have underperformed Nasdaq by less than 65bp/year, even when including the current speculative Magnificent 7/AI period. Because such a large proportion of return comes from dividends, Utilities have achieved their returns with considerably lower volatility and beta. The DJ Utilities Index has a beta of only 0.5 to the Nasdaq during the 50+ year period, implying its risk-adjusted returns are superior to those of Nasdaq." Max Grinacoff, head of US equity derivatives, UBS "Valuations continue to price in AI-led 'profitability exceptionalism.' The US [equity market] is clearly 'expensive' to bonds unless growth expectations are met." Callie Cox, chief markets strategist, Ritholtz Wealth Management "Right now, investors are giving AI the benefit of the doubt. Tech may be the most globally exposed sector of the S&P 500, yet people are willing to pay above-average multiples for the piece of what's shaping up to be a compelling story for the next decade. "The issue here is that the AI trade works until it doesn't ... We're not in a recession yet, but tariffs and a host of other pressures could cause the job market to buckle. Tech's expectations are exceptionally high, and reality may involve a steep drop in market value. This is why portfolio balance is so important — you're implicitly correcting the big imbalance between stock performances for your own investments." Nicole Inui, head of US and Latin America strategy, HSBC "Market breadth (% of companies outperforming the S&P 500) is getting narrower and hitting low points more often. This pattern of concentrated market performance was also seen in the late nineties and early 2000s. Back then, the S&P 500 tended to correct following points of narrow market breadth over the near term. However, in recent years, the market has rallied even as market breadth narrows, [a] testament to the quality of the large-cap stocks leading the rally." Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, Charles Schwab "A lot is made of the 'cash on the sidelines' story when observing assets in money market funds; however, as a share of total equity market value, it's significantly more subdued." Sam Ro, editor, TKer "Over 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods, the S&P 500 on average has generated positive returns. But as this data from JPMorgan Asset Management shows, investing specifically at all-time highs has actually generated higher average returns over these time horizons." Another economic turning point Greg Daco, chief economist, EY "We estimate that roughly a quarter of the monthly CPI advance in June can be attributed to a tariff-induced impulse. Prices for household equipment and furnishings, appliances, window and floor coverings, and toys experienced their largest gains since the early 2020s, while prices for computers, audio and video equipment, and apparel posted notable gains. "As of June, the average tariff rate was 15%, yet effective customs duties imply a realized rate closer to 10.1%. Strategies used by companies to avoid passing on cost increases to consumers — inventory front-loading, using bonded warehouses and foreign trade zones, reducing margins — are not eternal. As such, we should expect a muggy inflation summer." David Mericle, chief US economist, Goldman Sachs "We estimate that tariffs have boosted consumer prices by 0.2% cumulatively so far but think that the largest effects are still ahead of us. Tariff effects are likely to push core inflation back above 3% over the next year, despite an underlying trend that we see as steadily moving back to 2%. We expect tariffs to have only a one-time effect on the price level rather than igniting persistent high inflation and consequently expect inflation to resume its decline toward 2% down the road as the tariff effects drop out of the year-over-year calculation." Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Michael Reid, chief economist, RBC Capital Markets "This chart looks at the relationship between wages and profits and their respective shares of GVA [gross value added] (i.e., the contribution to GDP). This is an important relationship because wages represent the largest share of GVA, which has fallen below 50% for most of the last decade. At the same time, profits' share increased to all-time highs. Our concern is that tariffs will start to add pressure to margins (i.e., corporate profits will be squeezed if businesses absorb some of the tariffs and/or we see demand destruction). The result will likely be cost-cutting in the wages space (i.e., layoffs) to bolster profits." Mark Zandi, chief US economist, Moody's "Labor force growth is slumping. Given the new population controls, measuring labor force growth is tricky, but by my calculation, it's at a standstill. Behind this are the severe restrictions on immigration. This time last year, the foreign-born labor force was growing 5%. It's now declining. The native-born labor force remains moribund. The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices. The economy's real potential GDP growth — that pace of growth consistent with stable inflation — is also lower. It is currently closer to 1% than the 2% we have come to think of as typical. Think of what this means for everything from asset returns to our already dire fiscal outlook." Thomas Ryan, North America economist, Capital Economics "After curbing unauthorised immigration at the Southwest border, the Trump administration is now steadily increasing detentions and deportations. This crackdown is starting to impact labour supply: The foreign-born share of the labour force fell to 19.1% in June, down from a peak of 19.8% in March. That marks a decline of over 1 million people, at least partly due to stepped-up ICE enforcement. A recent large boost to ICE's budget in the One Big Beautiful Act suggests this trend will persist, keeping unemployment low even as job growth slows. That, in turn, supports our expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year." Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist, Oxford Economics "Foreign-born workers made a huge contribution to labor force growth as the US emerged from the pandemic, helping to restore balance to the labor market and ease wage and inflation pressures. ... We think the trend will come to an end, however. The foreign-born share of the labor force declined in the second quarter of 2025. The labor force data for foreign-born workers can be noisy, so we shouldn't read too much into one quarter of data. Also, foreign-born workers typically don't enter the labor market immediately upon arriving in the US, so there still may be some growth related to those who arrived over the past few years. But we expect the Trump administration's immigration and deportation policies to result in a much lower pace of immigration over the next few years than we previously anticipated, and before too long, that will translate into slower growth in the foreign-born share of the labor force." Aditya Bhave, head of US economics, BofA Securities "Going forward, we think tighter immigration policy restrictions will reduce the breakeven pace of employment growth to about 70k (from 125k currently) for the next two years as the immigration supply shock plays out. Hence, we expect the [unemployment] rate to rise modestly, reaching 4.4% in 4Q 2025 and peaking at 4.5% in 1Q-3Q 2026 despite payrolls slowing down to 50k in [the second half of 2025] & 70k in 2026. Chair Powell has argued that the Fed's job is to manage aggregate demand in a manner that meets aggregate supply 'where it's at.' So, with the u-rate rising gradually in our forecast and core PCE inflation likely to reach 3% over the summer, we don't think the Fed will be able to cut rates this year." Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist, Carson Group "Household balance sheets are as in as good a shape as ever, with lower liabilities and higher asset values as a percent of disposable income. Two big reasons driving this are rising home prices and surging stock prices over the last 5 years. This likely says households are in very solid shape as we head into [the second half of 2025]." Thomas Simons, chief US economist, Jefferies "The Philly Fed's survey on consumer credit conditions increased from 31.7% in Q4 2019 to almost 36.7% in mid-Q2 2021. Obviously, this is one of the consequences of the COVID stimulus checks and the forbearance on student loans, and it might be easy to dismiss the surge as temporary and insignificant in the long run. However, the share has since come down to about 35.4%, which [is] off the highs but still well above levels that we were used to before the pandemic. The same Philly Fed survey reports that there are 584 million open accounts, so the increase to 35.4% paying their full balance from 31.7% means that households have 21.6 million fewer open accounts accumulating interest charges. This is a key step on the way to being able to save money and accumulate wealth; a much more optimistic story than what we hear most of the time when it comes to consumer credit these days." Wells Fargo Economics team led by Jay Bryson "There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark. Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter. With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays. In May, real discretionary services spending fell 0.3% year-over-year. While that is a modest contraction, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions over the past 60+ years." Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist, Deutsche Bank "One big question at the Fed and fiscal nexus has been whether removing Chair Powell would reduce fiscal costs for the Federal government. In a recent note, we used last week's headlines around President Trump being ready to fire Powell as an event study to answer this question. Taking market moves around these news reports (i.e., a significant twist steepening of the curve) at face value, we find that the cost savings from lower front-end yields would be largely offset by higher long-term yields. Specifically, the Treasury would only save $12-15bn through 2027 if the President fired Powell, even if Treasury delayed coupon increases to skew more issuance towards bills." Liz Everett Krisberg, head of Bank of America Institute "There are several signs that rising costs of living are putting financial pressure on some younger consumers. Looking at Bank of America credit card data on households with a revolving balance, Millennials have seen the largest rise in their utilization rate. However, the good news is that their rates appear to have stabilized over the past year and a half." A shifting investing landscape Campbell Harvey, economist, Duke University "Passive investing has overtaken active investing and shows no sign of slowing down. There are risks to passive investing. Passive investing buys based on only one [criterion] — market capitalization. There is no price discovery. Passive investing does not care if the stock is under- or overvalued. Further, because all stocks are bought or purchased at the same time, this increases correlations, thereby reducing diversification benefits and, at the same time, increases systemic risk — in a crisis, all stocks are dumped at the same time." Read more here. Todd Sohn, technical strategist, Strategas "Defensive sectors are disappearing within the S&P 500 as it becomes more dominated by Tech. Heck, Nvidia is almost the size of Healthcare now! So, investors need to think differently about how to defend and diversify a portfolio at this stage, given the overexposure to large-cap Growth. That's still the core and key player in almost any portfolio, but perhaps look outside the equity box for strategies that can be a shock absorber in volatile environments." Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, BNP Paribas Asset Management "Most investors are aware of the dominance of technology shares in the US equity market. This phenomenon began in the 1990s with the arrival of the internet, received a big boost during COVID lockdowns, and has accelerated further with the onset of AI. Tariffs provide another reason for the sector to dominate. While tariffs may not help the sector, they hurt it less than others in the market due to the higher share of services revenue versus goods. "Investors may not be aware, however, of how dominant technology has been in emerging markets. Since 2008, emerging market technology stocks have outperformed the rest of emerging markets by nearly 500%, compared to a 350% outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 index versus the Russell Value. For the rest of developed market equities (primarily Europe and Japan), technology has underperformed. This is not to suggest these indices have not risen, but just that the factors driving the performance are different." Gabriela Santos, chief strategist for the Americas, JPMorgan Asset Management "This chart shows how this year's outperformance of 1,200bps by international stocks may have caught some investors by surprise — but it's a long time coming and just the start. It's a combination of 'push and pull': expensive U.S. valuations pushing investors to diversify and a pull from the rest of the world due to less earnings dispersion. Earnings in the Eurozone, Japan, and pockets of EM have been keeping up with or beating U.S. earnings this cycle, powered by the end of deflation and negative interest rates, a new focus on shareholder returns, and now further turbocharged by fiscal spending. It's not about a global rotation due to the 'end of U.S. exceptionalism' altogether — it's about a 'normalization of U.S. exceptionalism' from near record valuations and weights in portfolios.' Steve Sosnick, chief strategist, Interactive Brokers "While the S&P 500 has put in a nice performance since each of those dates, it has, of course, lagged the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But it has also underperformed other global indices. Among major indices, the DAX and Hang Seng have been the biggest winners, while the FTSE and STOXX 50 have generally kept pace with the SPX. Considering that the dollar has fallen against the Euro and Pound, that improves the relative returns of European markets for US-based investors. While past performance is no guarantee of future results — of course — the recent performance of various non-US markets should remind investors that there are plenty of opportunities outside our borders." Jay Jacobs, head of equity ETFs, BlackRock "Looking at the world through a thematic lens has become a more effective way of trying to digest what's happening and capture return opportunities than looking at it through a traditional sector lens. If you took a very traditional sector-based approach to the world since the beginning of the year, you might see geopolitical fragmentation and some economic uncertainty resulting in a consumer pullback, [so] that you would shift from consumer discretionary into consumer staples. And indeed, ... consumer staples have outperformed consumer discretionary, but it hasn't really fully explained what's going on because one of the challenges is that consumer staples [has] a highly globally integrated supply chain. So if you're concerned about supply chains or tariff risk or other disruptions, consumer staples doesn't offer that much protection." Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist, Charles Schwab "This chart shows ten-year Treasury yields and the broad-based Bloomberg Dollar Index. We are watching the divergence in trend between yields and the dollar. Typically, trends in interest rates and the dollar are correlated with high and/or rising yields, leading to dollar strength. However, since April, when the U.S. tariff policy was announced, the dollar has fallen sharply while yields have trended sideways. It suggests that global investors are expressing concerns about U.S. policy by moving out of dollars and/or anticipate policies to weaken the dollar. It could be a structural change that means U.S. yields will remain higher for longer than anticipated, even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this fall. Foreign investors may be more cautious about holding dollar-denominated assets in the current environment. If that continues, it would have a significant impact on the cost of financing the deficit, inflation, and interest rates." Robert Sockin, global economist, Citi "Fiscal performance is challenged in many countries around the world. Countries including the United States, United Kingdom, France, Japan, India, China, and Brazil are expected to run large fiscal deficits even though their debt levels are already high. Italy, Spain, and Canada, meanwhile, are expected to run somewhat more modest deficits, although their debt levels remain elevated. "There is no clearly defined limit for how high debt can go that can be identified in advance. The US and many other indebted countries successfully issue significant quantities of government securities. Still, while markets have shown patience with high levels of indebtedness, we judge that this patience has limits. We saw one example of this in the UK during the fall of 2022 when proposed tax cuts set off a crisis of market confidence. "It strikes us as imprudent to experiment with the limits of market patience, but governments in several major countries nevertheless seem inclined to do exactly that." This project would not be possible without the work of Yahoo Finance Senior Editor Brent Sanchez, who turned Wall Street jargon into a digestible visual presentation of the current market moment. And a special thanks to Yahoo Finance's team of editors who worked on this project, including Myles Udland, David Foster, Nina Moothedath, Adriana Belmonte, Grace O'Donnell, and Brett LoGiurato. Most of all, thank you to all of the experts who contributed their time and thought to this project and helped make this Chartbook such a valuable snapshot in economic time. Josh Schafer is a senior markets reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Have thoughts on volume five of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook or have a specific question about markets or the economy you'd like to see a Chartbook for? Email him at Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Boston Globe
25 minutes ago
- Boston Globe
Russia kills 21 civilians in Ukraine as the Kremlin remains defiant over Trump threats
Trump said Monday he is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin 10 to 12 days to stop the killing in Ukraine after three years of war, moving up a 50-day deadline he had given the Russian leader two weeks ago. The move meant Trump wants peace efforts to make progress by Aug. 7-9. Advertisement Trump has repeatedly rebuked Putin for talking about ending the war but continuing to bombard Ukrainian civilians. But the Kremlin hasn't changed its tactics. 'I'm disappointed in President Putin,' Trump said during a visit to Scotland. The Kremlin pushed back, however, with a top Putin lieutenant warned Trump against 'playing the ultimatum game with Russia.' 'Russia isn't Israel or even Iran,' former president Dmitry Medvedev, who is deputy head of the country's Security Council, wrote on social platform X. 'Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country,' Medvedev said. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor, the Kremlin has warned Kyiv's Western backers that their involvement could end up broadening the war to NATO countries. Advertisement 'Kremlin officials continue to frame Russia as in direct geopolitical confrontation with the West in order to generate domestic support for the war in Ukraine and future Russian aggression against NATO,' the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, said late Monday. The Ukrainian air force said Russia launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles along with 37 Shahed-type strike drones and decoys at Ukraine overnight. They say 32 Shahed drones were intercepted or neutralized by Ukrainian air defenses. The Russian attack close to midnight Monday hit the Bilenkivska Correctional Facility with four guided aerial bombs, according to the State Criminal Executive Service of Ukraine. At least 42 inmates were hospitalized with serious injuries, while another 40 people, including one staff member, sustained various injuries. The strike destroyed the prison's dining hall, damaged administrative and quarantine buildings, but the perimeter fence held and no escapes were reported, authorities said. Ukrainian officials condemned the attack, saying that targeting civilian infrastructure, such as prisons, is a war crime under international conventions. In Dnipro, missiles hit the city of Kamianske, partially destroying a three-story building and damaging nearby medical facilities including a maternity hospital and a city hospital ward. Two people were killed and five were wounded, including a pregnant woman who is now in a serious condition, according to regional head Serhii Lysak. Further Russian attacks hit communities in Synelnykivskyi district with FPV drones and aerial bombs, killing at least one person and injuring two others. According to Lysak, Russian forces also targeted the community of Velykomykhailivska, killing a 75-year-old woman and injuring a 68-year-old man.
