3 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, May 5-9, 2025
Stocks rose for a second straight week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining 2.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ending the week with a gain of 3%, up 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) surging 3.45%. The S&P 500 notched its longest daily rally in over two decades, driven by robust tech earnings, progress in tariff negotiations, and continued strength in the job market.
Protect Your Portfolio Against Market Uncertainty
The two main forces that had pressured stocks – tariff uncertainty and concerns about the sustainability of the AI-led rally – began to ease, at least for now. The Q1 earnings season has been by-and-large positive, with over 75% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates.
Microsoft and Meta Platforms reignited investor optimism last week, beating expectations and, more importantly, issuing bullish guidance while maintaining aggressive AI-related capex plans. That momentum lifted a broad range of AI hardware and infrastructure stocks, as well as adjacent plays like power producers and electronics suppliers.
This optimism from pure-play tech giants overshadowed signs of trouble in the outlooks of more consumer-facing companies such as Apple and Amazon, both already feeling the impact of the trade spat with China and bracing for an impending consumer pullback amid an economic slowdown. They join a growing list of retailers and consumer goods firms slashing or withdrawing guidance, citing rising costs from tariffs and weakening demand.
Although the worst of the tariff uncertainty seems to be behind us, with the markets apparently making peace with a new tariff regime, the impacts of the Trump administration's trade policies on the U.S. economy are just beginning to trickle in. Although the unexpected Q1 2025 GDP contraction shook sentiment, it was the result of companies front-loading orders ahead of anticipated tariffs and is expected to be reversed in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the economy's underlying metrics remained sound, as confirmed by the stronger-than-expected April jobs report, with job gains at their strongest since May 2023.
While stock markets are increasingly optimistic about de-escalating trade tensions, consumers seem less convinced. Consumer sentiment fell in April for the fourth month in a row, reaching levels not seen since the pandemic era, as households brace for tariff-induced price increases. However, elevated consumer inflation expectations, coupled with the job market's strength, may keep the Fed on hold longer from acting as it weighs the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation.
Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.
» April's ISM Services PMI – Monday, 05/05 – This report reflects business conditions in the U.S. services sector, which accounts for over 70% of GDP. The ISM Services PMI is a key leading indicator, helping analysts anticipate shifts in economic momentum, as changes in its components often precede broader economic trends.
» April's S&P Global Services PMI – Monday, 05/05 – This report offers an alternative perspective on the U.S. services sector. Unlike ISM, S&P Global's survey includes a wider spectrum of private-sector firms, including small and mid-sized enterprises. It places greater emphasis on output and business expectations, whereas ISM focuses more on actual spending and activity. Together, the two reports provide a more comprehensive view of the sector's health.
» March's Consumer Credit Change – Wednesday, 05/07 – This report measures the monthly change in total outstanding consumer credit, excluding mortgage debt. It provides insight into how much consumers are borrowing to finance spending on goods and services. Rising consumer credit can signal strong consumer confidence and robust household spending, while declines may indicate caution or financial strain.
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Ukraine plots fracking revolution
Ukraine is working to unleash natural gas fracking with the goal of becoming a major exporter and revolutionising Europe's energy market. In plans critical to Volodymyr Zelensky's hopes of a post-war economic recovery, ministers in Kyiv are scrambling to lure private investment and gain access to new drilling technology to access the country's vast untapped shale gas resources. According to sources close to Kyiv, officials are racing to attract 'foreign technology and highly experienced subsoil users', with a focus on unconventional shale resources in western Ukraine. The hunt for cash - as revealed by the independent news platform Energy Flux - is being conducted in parallel to the rare earth minerals deal struck between Donald Trump and President Zelensky in April, which will allow the US to exploit Ukraine's natural resources, including aluminium, graphite, oil and natural gas. The priority is to rapidly revitalise Ukraine's ailing gas sector after a gruelling winter saw roughly 40pc of production capacity taken out by a fierce Russian campaign of drone and missile strikes. The attacks forced Ukraine to draw heavily on its gas stocks, which ended winter almost entirely depleted. But Ukraine's Ministry of Energy believes it is possible to refill the country's cavernous underground storage facilities and even produce a surplus for export 'within 18 months', according to a senior government source. Ukraine already has some experience with advanced drilling technology for old wells and has since carried out experimental trials that 'confirm its potential' for fracking, they said. However, to unlock Ukraine's shale reserves, the country needs to attract more investment and newer kit, primarily from America. 'Development and production can be quickly developed using available gas infrastructure with connections to the EU gas market that make it very attractive,' the source added. 'Ukraine has enough deposits of traditional gas to cover its own consumption and to become a net exporter, and shale gas production has quite a profound effect on its development.' Such a turnaround would help transform the fortunes of Europe's energy markets, which remain on edge following the loss of Russian pipeline gas exports via Ukraine at the start of 2025. Refilling Ukraine's depleted gas storage – the largest in Europe, at 32bn cubic metres – is one of the main factors tightening energy markets in Central and Eastern Europe ahead of next winter. Ukraine's gas stocks are today just 7pc full compared to the EU average of 50pc. Efforts to pipe natural gas from Southern and Eastern Europe into Ukraine have also been thwarted by red tape and a lack of market cohesion. However, if Ukraine could unleash its own shale revolution and create a surplus for export, the need to keep pumping European gas into Ukraine would effectively disappear overnight. It would also help reduce Europe's reliance on costly liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from overseas. Gas-starved Europe leaned heavily on LNG after Gazprom, the Kremlin-backed energy giant, halted exports to the EU following Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Ukrainian shale gas exports, if scaled up quickly, would erase a large chunk of European energy demand currently being met by LNG, potentially sparking a sharp drop in energy prices around the world. However, Kyiv's proposed fracking revolution hinges largely on the country's ability to secure overseas investment. Officials from Ukraine's Ministry of Energy are tapping Western diplomatic ties to find private capital funds with a high tolerance for risk to bankroll drilling and bring in technology partners. A senior government team attended the Baku Energy Forum in Azerbaijan last week in part to promote Ukraine's potential as a shale hub. Speaking at the event, one high-ranking statesman said the Lviv-Lublin geological area that straddles the Ukraine-Poland border is 'superior on the Ukrainian side' thanks to higher porosity and lower clay content, making it 'better for fracking'. The most promising prospect is the Oleska (Olesskaya) shale block, which contains an estimated 0.8 to 1.5 trillion cubic metres of shale gas resources – enough to meet Ukraine's domestic needs for decades. How much of this resource is economically recoverable is an open question. Chevron walked away from a 50pc interest in the Oleska project in 2014 before drilling could begin. Chevron's stated reason for leaving was not because of political instability or lack of resources, but rather Kyiv's failure to enact specific tax reforms necessary to enable shale gas foreign investment. 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Business Insider
35 minutes ago
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Short Report: Short interest in Clear Secure hits record high
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San Francisco Chronicle
42 minutes ago
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Asian shares rally ahead of US-China trade talks
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