Party's over: the election trend that threatens majors
Incumbent premier Jeremy Rockliff and Labor's Dean Winter are courting the support of independents after Saturday's snap poll delivered another hung parliament.
With three seats still in doubt, the Liberals have secured 14 and Labor nine - both short of the 18 needed for a majority, with the Greens on five and four independents.
Mr Rockliff has declared he has a mandate to govern with the most seats, but Mr Winter hasn't ruled out relying on confidence and supply of the Greens to govern.
Several independents have said they're open to backing either Mr Rockliff or Mr Winter as the state's next premier.
With three-quarters of the count completed, Labor's primary vote has dropped 3.2 per cent to 25.8 - the lowest for the party in Tasmanian history.
It came despite a massive swing toward Labor in the state at the May federal poll.
The Liberals ran a campaign narrative of laying the blame for an early election at the feet of Mr Winter, after a Labor-led no-confidence motion in Mr Rockliff was successful.
"It may have been a case of 'we've given you a chance and rewarded you at federal level and now you want to be rewarded again?'," election analyst Kevin Bonham said of Labor's poor showing.
Labor has been in opposition since 2014 and has struggled for traction despite ballooning net debt and infrastructure stuff-ups under the Liberals.
The Liberals picked up a 3.2 per cent swing with a primary vote of 39.9 per cent, well away from their 48.7 per cent when they were elected in majority in 2021.
One-third of the state didn't vote for the major two parties, with several independents increasing their support.
The Liberals were plunged into minority in 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench. A snap 2024 poll delivered a hung parliament but Labor refused to govern.
While it wasn't the end of majority government, it was now more difficult for the majors to get there, Dr Bonham said.
A roughly 20 per cent cohort of voters who traditionally swung between the major parties in Tasmania had seemingly broken down, he said.
Labor went to the election without big vote-getter Rebecca White, who has switched to federal politics, and popular ex-Speaker Michelle O'Byrne, who retired.
The Liberals ran ex-federal MPs Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce, who were both elected.
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