G7 leaders gather in Canada for a summit amid volatile global picture
Leaders of some of the world's biggest economic powers have arrived in the Canadian Rockies for a Group of Seven summit, overshadowed by an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and US President Donald Trump's unresolved trade war.
Israel's strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation, which appeared to catch many world leaders unaware, is the latest sign of a more volatile world.
Trump in recent days vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a US official said, in an indication of how far Israel was prepared to go.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had discussed efforts to de-escalate the crisis with Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as other world leaders and said he expected 'intense discussions' would continue at the summit.
As summit host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has decided to abandon the annual practice of issuing a joint statement, or communique, at the end of the meeting.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday that the bloc was committed to strengthening Ukraine, as the G7 leaders gathered to meet in Kananaskis, Canada for crucial talks.
"To achieve peace through strength, we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table and to end this war," Von der Leyen said during a news conference ahead of meetings.
She added that the summit will be "defined by geo-economics and geopolitics at the same time."
"We need a frank discussion among the G7 partners, restoring a sense of stability and predictability among ourselves. That is the first priority," Von der Leyen said.
Trump is the summit wild card. Looming over the meeting are his inflammatory threats to make Canada the 51st state and take over Greenland.
French President Emmanuel Macron visited Greenland on Sunday for a symbolic stop on his way to Canada. Macron warned that Greenland is 'not to be sold' nor 'to be taken."
With other leaders wanting to talk to Trump in an effort to talk him out of imposing tariffs, the summit risks being a series of bilateral conversations rather than a show of unity.
Leaders who are not part of the G7 but have been invited to the summit by Carney include the heads of state of India, Ukraine, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Australia, Mexico and the UAE. Avoiding tariffs will continue to be top of mind.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to attend the summit and is expected to meet with Trump, a reunion coming just months after their bruising Oval Office encounter which laid bare the risks of having a meeting with the US president.
Starmer met with Carney in Ottawa before the summit for talks focused on security and trade, in the first visit to Canada by a British prime minister for eight years.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators in The Hague donned red clothing and marched to protest the Dutch government's policy toward Israel on Sunday.
It was the second time the so-called "Red Line protest" took place in the Dutch political capital, exceeding the turnout for a similar event in May.
Protesters walked a 5-kilometre loop around the centre of The Hague to symbolically create the red line they say the government has failed to draw to halt Israel's campaign in Gaza.
The human rights groups and aid agencies — including Amnesty International, Save the Children and Doctors Without Borders — that organised the march estimated the peaceful crowd at more than 150,000 people. Local media put the numbers closer to 100,000.
'I don't want to be complicit in these horrendous crimes happening there and I want to speak out,' said protester Marin Koning.
In neighbouring Belgium, at least 75,000 people, many of them also clad in red, hit the streets in the capital Brussels, police said. Organisers estimated the crowd at 110,000.
Several rallies have been held to draw attention to Israel's actions in Gaza, but Sunday's was the biggest rally so far.
The Dutch protest sent a 'clear signal,' according to Marjon Rozema of Amnesty International Netherlands. Dutch officials must 'act now, at both the national and international level, to increase the pressure on the Israeli government,' she said in a statement.
Outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof responded to the protest in a post on X. "We see you and we hear you," he wrote, adding that "our eventual goal is the same: to bring an end as soon as possible to the suffering in Gaza."
As during the first Red Line protest in May, the march took the crowds past the Peace Palace, headquarters of the United Nations' International Court of Justice, where last year judges ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza.
Israel strongly denies that it is violating international law in Gaza.
Several UN agencies and other humanitarian organisations have accused Israel of committing crimes against humanity against Palestinians in Gaza, including ethnic cleansing.
Experts at the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory said in a report this week that Israel committed the crime against humanity of "extermination" by killing civilians sheltering in schools and religious sites.
Amnesty International concluded that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza in a report published in December.
The war began when Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people, most of them civilians. Hamas took 251 people as hostages, and is currently holding 53 of them, fewer than half of them alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
A subsequent Israeli offensive has to date killed more than 55,300 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry whose figure does not distinguish between fighters and civilians. The figures are repeatedly cited by international institutions, such as the UN.
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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and refined products passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2023, representing nearly 30% of total global oil trade. Most of this volume—around 70%—was bound for Asia, with China, India and Japan among the largest recipients. While alternative pipeline infrastructure exists, it is limited. The IEA estimates that only 4.2 mb/d of crude oil can be rerouted via overland routes, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah. This capacity represents barely one quarter of the typical daily volume transiting the Strait. 'Any prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz would not only disrupt shipments from key Gulf producers—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar—but also make inaccessible the majority of the world's spare production capacity, which is concentrated in the Persian Gulf,' the IEA warned in a report. LNG markets are even more exposed to potential disruptions. All LNG exports from Qatar—the world's second-largest LNG exporter—and the UAE must pass through the Strait. The IEA reports that 90 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG transited the Strait in the first ten months of 2023, equal to 20% of global LNG trade. With no viable alternative routes for LNG exports from Qatar or the UAE, any maritime closure would severely tighten global supply. Around 80% of these LNG volumes are destined for Asia, while Europe receives roughly 20%, meaning disruptions would exacerbate competition between regions, especially in a tight market. 'The sheer volume of oil passing through the Strait and the scarcity of alternative routes means even brief disruptions would have significant consequences for the global market,' the IEA stated. While a full closure remains a low-probability scenario, analysts agree that the threat alone is enough to inject volatility into energy markets. Crude oil prices surged by 13% last week amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Although prices have since eased slightly after reports confirmed that Iranian energy infrastructure remained untouched by Israeli strikes, the risk of further escalation—and potential disruption to global energy flows—remains elevated. In response, Wall Street analysts have been quick to assess the possible fallout from any interruption of oil and gas shipments through the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warned that an extreme risk scenario involving a prolonged closure of the Strait could push prices well above $100 per barrel. The investment bank estimates that Iran currently produces around 3.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and 0.8 mb/d of condensates, with total seaborne exports averaging 2.1 mb/d so far this year—most of it heading to China. T ING's head of commodities strategy, Warren Patterson, indicates that the market has begun pricing in a substantially higher geopolitical risk premium in light of recent developments. Patterson stated that any disruption to Iranian oil flows would be enough to eliminate the expected oil surplus for the fourth quarter of 2025, likely pushing Brent crude prices toward $80 per barrel. Yet, the analyst warns that a more severe scenario—such as a disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—could be far more consequential. 'Almost a third of global seaborne oil passes through this chokepoint,' he noted. 'A significant disruption to these flows could drive prices up to $120 per barrel, particularly because most of OPEC's spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf and would be inaccessible under such conditions.' "This escalation also has ramifications for the European gas market," he added. The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a shipping lane—it's a lifeline for global energy. With no easy detours for oil or LNG flows, its vulnerability puts markets on edge every time tensions flare in this region. A full closure of the Strait may still seem a remote event, but the mere threat is enough to rattle markets and keep oil prices elevated. As Iranian and Israeli forces continue to exchange strikes, the risk of miscalculation looms large. In a region where diplomacy is fragile and stakes are high, one wrong move could turn a regional conflict into a global energy crisis.
