As pitchers chase higher velocity, the curveball is disappearing from MLB

NBC News

3 days ago

ATLANTA — Curveballs have been thrown a curve by a modern game valuing velocity over variety, disappearing from the major leagues by more than 20,000 annually.
The Athletics have thrown curves on just 2.5% of pitches this season. The overall big league figure dropped from 10.7% in 2019 to 8.1% last year, the lowest since MLB started tracking in 2008, before rising slightly to 8.5% this season.
There were 22,962 fewer curveballs in 2024 than five years earlier.
"You don't really see a lot of people throwing 12-6 curveballs anymore," Tampa Bay pitcher Shane Baz said. "They'd rather have a hard cutter/slider. It's a lot easier for guys to throw a sweeper than it is a 12-6 curveball."
Baz's 28.1% is seventh in curveball use among those who have thrown at least 1,000 pitches this season.
Baltimore's Charlie Morton, first at 39%, learned to throw a hook from his dad.
"He was reading some article or maybe he was reading some pitching book," Baltimore's 41-year-old right-hander said. "You basically throw it like you're re-throwing a knife."
Curveballs have been around for a century and a half
Hall of Famer Candy Cummings, a 145-game winner, is credited with inventing the curveball in 1863 when he was 14, discovering the movement when he threw seashells into the Atlantic Ocean. Some attribute the curve to amateur pitcher Fred Goldsmith in 1870.
With an average velocity of 80.2 mph, curves are the slowest and loopiest of breaking pitches, often disrupting the timing of batters set for smoke. The phrase "thrown a curveball" has become part of the English language, much like "screwball," more a phrase than a pitch these days.
Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan and Clayton Kershaw were among the consummate curveballers, bamboozling batters as balls they gave up on dropped like hang gliders into the strike zone.
"It's become an industry of throwing over pitching," New York Yankees senior adviser Omar Minaya said. "When you pitch, you use different pitches. What we're seeing in the industry as a whole, especially with showcases, is people are looking more at velocity than pitchability — as a scout, I said that unfortunately."
Former pitcher Dallas Braden, now a broadcaster, longs for those days of deception.
"You almost sympathize with the hitter in the moment because you're like: Damn, I couldn't have hit that. He couldn't hit that. Nobody could have hit that," Braden said. "The eephus is now almost like as close as we get, when a position player is on the mound, to an aesthetically pleasing pitch like that, just the visual presentation of the pitch starting in the clouds and ending up at the ankles."
Nike's "Chicks Dig the Long Ball" commercial defined baseball in the Steroids Era. These days, the slogan might as well be: "Velo Rules!" There were just 214 pitches of 100 mph or more in 2008. There were a record 3,880 two years ago and this year is on track for 3,252.
In tandem, starting pitcher use has dropped. Starters have averaged just under 5 1/3 innings this season, down from 6 1/3 innings in the 1980s. Their pitch count averages 85.7, down from 97 in 2010
Average four-seam fastball velocity is a record 94.4 mph this season, up from 91.9 mph when MLB started tracking in 2008. But fastballs — four-seam, two-seam and cutters, have dropped from 62.1% to 55%.
Those missing hooks and heaters have been replaced by sliders, sweepers and slurves. They are 22.6% of pitches this year, up from 13.9% in 2008, and their average velocity has risen to 84.8 mph from 83.4 mph.
Colorado throws curves the most often at 15.6%, not that it has brought any success to a team that entered the break at 22-74, on track for a 37-125 finish and the post-1900 record for losses.
The Athletics haven't thrown 10% curveballs since 2017.
"If you look around the game, swing and miss has taken more of a priority, so guys are trying to throw more sweepers with more horizontal movement, or they're trying to throw the slider really hard at the bottom of the zone," Athletics pitching coach Scott Emerson said. "They're worried about contact with the curveball."
Veteran pitchers note the curve's decline as youngsters integrate into staffs.
"As you're an amateur going to the big leagues guys are looking at velo. Guys are just looking at stuff," Yankees ace Gerrit Cole said. "Velo is important and it pays."
Maybe because the pitchers who throw curves are committed, batters have a .225 average this season on curves, down from .263 on fastballs and up slightly from .222 on sliders, sweepers and slurves.
"That's just how the game is trending: to throw it as hard as you can, spin it the best you can and hope the hitter doesn't hit it," Emerson said. "The hitters are up there trying to swing as hard they can. If they hit it with hard contact, make 27 swings that are really hard, you got a chance to hit a homer here and there. And it's taken away from the contact-type pitchers."