Tesla shares jump as popular analyst revamps target
Elon Musk has a big challenge on his hands. Fresh off his controversial stint as head of the Department of Government Efficiency, he's knee-deep in rolling out autonomous cars for ridesharing in key markets like Austin and San Francisco.
The ridesharing push is critical to re-energizing Tesla's brand, which was heavily damaged worldwide during his time in the Trump administration.
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Tesla's sales have free-fallen in key areas once considered friendliest to electric vehicles, including California and Europe, causing profits and the company's stock price to sink.
The headwinds remain stiff, but Tesla's shares have recently surged higher on autonomous driving optimism and, according to Fundstrat analyst Mark Newton, the move may not be over.
Tesla gets a new stock price target amid robotaxi launches
Tesla's robotaxi opportunity is significant.
Goldman Sachs predicts the global robotaxi rideshare market may grow to $12 billion by 2030, an estimated 90% compound annual growth rate. They also think it could continue to increase, reaching $47 billion in 2035.Tesla won't capture all that market opportunity, given that it faces stiff competition. Waymo is already testing autonomous driving in many markets, and Amazon-backed Zoox is testing vehicles in key markets like Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, ridesharing giant Uber has partnered with Waymo, providing Waymo rides via its app, and it recently cut a deal with Lucid to roll out 20,000 vehicles powered with Nuro Driver, an autonomous driving software. It expects to launch in its first US city in 2026.
Still, there's no debate that Tesla is a leader and that the autonomous vehicle market is in its early days, providing plenty of room for growth.
The opportunity ahead of it is likely a big reason why Tesla's stock price has climbed 12% since August 1. This move was large enough for Tesla shares to recapture their 200-day moving average and attract the attention of Fundstrat's Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton.
Newton has been using technical analysis to evaluate what's likely to happen to stocks in the future for over twenty years. This week, he updated his Tesla outlook, offering a new price target of $488 by the end of 2025.
The analyst is encouraged by Tesla's rally happening on above-average daily trading volume.
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"$TSLA has broken out this morning of the triangle consolidation which had kept this range-bound since late May and volume today is already nearing 55 mm," wrote Newton on X, formerly Twitter, on August 11. "Last Friday's minor push to new multi-day highs happened on 91 million shares, the highest since late July."
Newton appeared on the Brighter by Herbert podcast on August 8 to tout his new thoughts on Tesla.
He pointed out that triangle technical patterns following big moves like Tesla's enjoyed off the April lows usually resolve higher. He thinks a breakout is forthcoming "literally any day now."
Ultimately, Newton believes Tesla will test all-time highs near $488 set in December.
"Overall, the higher this closes up off the lows, as volume expands, the better the prospects technically for the next few days. Very good breakout move this morning."
Is bad news priced into Tesla's shares?
Newton thinks it's very unlikely for Tesla to undercut its early year lows and his upside outlook suggests that Tesla's retreat earlier this year may have priced in a lot of bad news.
And there's certainly been plenty of bad news to go around. Tesla's second quarter earnings largely disappointed with vehicle unit sales, revenue, and profit declining from last year.Total vehicle deliveries slumped 13% from one year ago, causing revenue to fall 12% to $22.5 billion and profit per share to slump 23% to 40 cents per share.
The lackluster demand was most evident in key markets like California, where the California New Car Dealers Association says Tesla registrations dropped 18.3% in the first half of 2025 year over year. Tesla's California market share fell 2.9% year-over-year in the second quarter.
The news isn't much better in Europe. Tesla sold 10,000 vehicles in Germany year-to-date through July, 57.8% fewer vehicles than in the same period in 2024, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA).
Still, Tesla's stock gains amid the sales slump may support Newton's view that the bar has been set so low that any news that's even marginally better than feared could serve as a catalyst for additional upside.Tesla shares jump as popular analyst revamps target first appeared on TheStreet on Aug 11, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 11, 2025, where it first appeared.
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