Combining forces: Opposition plans to break the big two's stranglehold on power begin to germinate

Irish Times

17-05-2025

Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry giving a two-finger
salute
to People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy provided the indelible image of the row over Dáil speaking rights.
The lasting effect of that bitter row – about the speaking time given to Independent TDs who were supporting the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition – on the 34th Dáil may be more subtle, but it is of central importance.
Before Christmas, The Irish Times reported that left-wing parties planned to co-ordinate more closely in light of what was rapidly becoming inevitable – that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Government would be supported by Independents.
At that juncture it was impossible to predict the opening months of 2025 would be dominated by the speaking-rights battle. It provided a vivid example of Opposition parties working together – and the term 'combined opposition' was born.
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Five and a half months after the election, the political system is finally settling into its usual rhythm. What the Opposition parties do next, the extent of their co-operation, and how their interests might align – or diverge – will impact the current, and potentially the future, shape of Irish politics. And some believe it could provide a dress rehearsal for the next government.
Independent TD for Tipperary North Michael Lowry appears to make an unparliamentary gesture in the Dáil. Photograph: People Before Profit/PA Wire
The speaking-rights incarnation of the combined opposition spanned the ideological divide, and dialogue across these lines has continued.
There are plenty of areas ripe for co-operation – although there is, predictably, more connective tissue on the left. The most obvious is
housing
– one Sinn Féin source predicts a 'an upping of the collective game', with the Occupied Territories Bill (banning trade between Ireland and Israel's illegal settlements in the West Bank)
and the Gaza conflict generally, disabilities and the neutrality/triple-lock debate also likely points of convergence.
Some are clear-eyed about the goal: 'to convince people an alternative government and administration is possible', says one Sinn Féin source.
Clearly, insufficient voters had faith in that last November.
'There just wasn't an alternative so people went with what they knew rather than take a risk,' says one Labour Party figure.
Against that, the same person believes there isn't much goodwill towards the Government. There is also less ambivalence to sharing power with Sinn Féin among some in Labour.
'I'm much more inclined to go in to government with Sinn Féin than Fine Gael,' says the same person, who would 'never' have considered that previously.
There is a shared interest in all Opposition parties arriving on the threshold of the next election, with voters open to the idea of an alternative government. But what that might look like is an open question – one likely to be coloured by how the coming years play out tactically and strategically for the Opposition.
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Labour and the Social Democrats are now firmly in the orbit of Sinn Féin
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Some on the left conceive of a formal transfer pact, a statement of shared principles alongside party manifestos, and a commitment not to share power with Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil. But that view is far from universal, with a deep hostility towards it in some quarters. There is a palpable nervousness in Labour and the Social Democrats about having their identities eroded – something Sinn Féin figures acknowledge, accepting a 'strategic concern that they don't want to be overshadowed by us or swallowed by us'.
There are some significant divergences between the parties, particularly issues where Sinn Féin is perceived to be moving right – on migration, LGBTQ+ matters and the environment. One Social Democrats TD says their party is 'miles apart' from Sinn Féin on carbon and local property taxes, sketching out a divergence on 'the basic principles of how we fund the public service'.
Those points of difference may be impossible to reconcile, but paradoxically, they may be convenient markers for parties in the eyes of the electorate.
After all, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael pull from different segments of 'middle Ireland' by retaining separate brands, but have co-operated for almost a decade, which will become 13 years if the Coalition goes full term.
While Opposition parties acknowledge a greater collaboration in this Dáil compared with the last, they are still feeling each other out, drawing up theories about what the others' intentions might be, or the internal politics of another party.
After the speaking-rights row, the first test of co-operation among the opposition will be the outcome of talks among left-wing parties about a consensus presidential candidate. It may fail, but it also provides a clear opportunity to outmanoeuvre the government parties in a high-profile contest.
Unlike the speaking-rights issue, which saw opposition across ideological divides, the dialogue is between Sinn Féin, People Before Profit, Labour, the Social Democrats and the Greens.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik arriving at Leinster House. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins
The first effort came from Labour, whose leader,
Ivana Bacik
, invited the Social Democrats and Greens to talks – the same parties she had publicly identified as her priority for post-election discussions. Social Democrats acting leader
Cian O'Callaghan
then broadened the group by inviting Sinn Féin and People Before Profit.
The names linked most frequently with a presidential nomination are Independent Senator Frances Black and Independent TD Catherine Connolly.
But identifying a candidate who stands a good chance of winning, and is acceptable to all parties is a high bar to meet – some parties wonder whether Black would thrive in the white heat of a presidential campaign, and although Connolly is acceptable to those on the further left, as a former Labour member, it may be hard for that party to get behind her.
Other parties see Sinn Féin as 'slightly humbled' after the general election
There is endless opining about whether Sinn Féin will put forward a candidate for president – something that is going on within the party as well. On the one hand, it may baulk at sitting out the race, especially if Irish unity becomes a campaign trail issue. On the other, its brand may still be too polarising to reverse its recent sorry outings in presidential contests, and the last thing the leadership needs is another disappointing election.
Sinn Féin seems to have, to an extent, a convening power among its fellow Opposition parties. This has a simple logic to it, says one source outside the party.
'They're the biggest and the ones who take the initiative,' says the source.
This is a view shared by a Sinn Féin TD, who points out that the party has the most speaking time in the Dáil and goes first when questioning the Government.
'Collaboration has to be on terms that are comfortable for everybody,' says the source, but they also note: 'We are the largest party by a significant margin.'
Still, other parties see Sinn Féin as 'slightly humbled' after the general election.
Last week two meetings of Opposition parties were held in the Sinn Féin party rooms in Leinster House – one on a combined opposition motion on the issue of accessing assessments of need to align with a protest outside the Dáil by 14-year-old disability campaigner Cara Darmody.
The second was convened by Sinn Féin housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin, which saw only left-wing parties involved, discussing engagement with civil society and trade unions to put pressure on the Government's housing record.
Spokespeople in other parties say they have been contacted by their Sinn Féin counterparts to arrange meetings as Oireachtas committees begin public sessions.
Others on the left also point to Sinn Féin visibly embracing things such as the Irish Neutrality League, with McDonald speaking at a recent event, and endorsing the counterprotest at a recent far-right march in Dublin.
Much of this could be the prosaic business of politics, or simply paying attention to detail. But one TD on the left says: 'I think Sinn Féin want to show themselves as leaders of the Opposition, the biggest party who are going to bring the other parties along.' A Social Democrats TD says: 'It feels like a different tack.'
For now, more is unknown than known about how different sets of interests and priorities will gel. But as the Oireachtas gets down to its usual business, the signs suggest there may be something germinating on the Opposition benches.
'You walk before you run,' says one Opposition TD.