Why Ground Beef Prices Are Hitting Record-Highs in the U.S.

Time​ Magazine

23-07-2025

For many Americans, the cost of ground beef is starting to weigh down their weekly shopping baskets. Ground beef prices rose by 10.3% in June, when compared to the same time last year, surpassing $6 per pound. The price of steak rose by 12.4% within this period.
'Egg prices have been through a rollercoaster ride. And now with beef, we're seeing quite a significant price rise,' says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University.
Earlier this year, egg prices skyrocketed, more than doubling in price in April when compared to March 2024. The sharp increase was caused by bird influenza outbreaks on American farms, which infected over 23 million birds that had to be culled.
As of early July, egg prices have since fallen back down to $3.78 per dozen from $6.23 in April.
Over the past 12 months, food prices as a whole have only risen by 2.7%, so what is causing this sharp increase in the price of ground beef?
Here's a breakdown of what's behind the soaring prices:
Cattle herd sizes are at a record low
Although the demand for ground beef products remains high in the U.S., the supply is facing a squeeze.
Cattle herd sizes are at the lowest they have been for almost 75 years, with just under 87 million cattle and calves recorded across the country at the start of 2025, according to the American Farmers Bureau Federation (AFBF).
AFBF economist Bernt Nelson has said that prices for feed steers (cattle bred for slaughter) have reached record highs, encouraging farmers to sell their cattle for meat production instead of breeding.
'High cattle prices combined with the unpredictability of future prices and profitability could compel farmers to continue marketing a higher percentage of females for beef rather than breeding,' he said in a February blog post.
And as farmers still struggle to make profit despite high prices, they may decide to sell off their remaining cattle due to slim margins.
'Even with these record high prices, margins for cattle farmers and ranchers are razor-thin thanks to continued elevated supply costs,' Nelson said in May.
One of the main high costs getting in the way of sustainable profit for cattle ranchers is that of feed for their herds, and this links back to adverse weather conditions brought on by climate change.
Read More: Why Were Eggs So Expensive in April?
Drought driven by climate change
'One of the main drivers has been the effects of climate change on beef production in the U.S. This is something that doesn't cause prices to rise overnight, so there's a considerable lag involved,' says Ortega.
A significant drought took place across the Great Plain states in 2022, forcing a lot of cattle farms to sell their livestock.
'What that [drought] does is erases feed for producers. There's less forage availability, so they sell a lot of their animals, because it becomes very costly to hold on to them,' Ortega notes.
A lot of the sold livestock, often slaughtered and turned into beef products, includes 'breeding stock,' meaning that in the long-term there is less capacity to breed new cows to keep up with consumer demand.
'If you couple that with the strong demand for beef, and there has been strong demand in particular for ground beef, because it is a very familiar product to consumers, it really puts a lot of pressure on prices, and that's why we've seen the increases,' says Ortega.
Uncertainty due to tariffs and concern over what might happen in the future
Ortega says he believes that tariffs 'are starting to play a role' in the rise of beef prices.
Despite a lot of domestic production, the U.S. still imports significant amounts of beef, particularly more lean trimmings. These trimmings are important for ground beef products.
'We import a lot of lean trimmings from countries like South Africa and Brazil, and that is in order to be able to blend this with our beef that tends to be fattier, and so we can make the proper blends in terms of fat content,' Ortega says.
President Donald Trump threatened earlier this month to install a 50% tariff against Brazil for what he described as a 'witch hunt' against former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing allegations that he planned to stay in power despite losing the 2022 Brazilian election.
'If these do go into effect, or even higher tariffs [are implemented], then I think we're going to see a notable further increase on things like ground beef and hamburger meat,' Ortega says.
Brazil, the world's largest exporter of beef, saw a rise in sales of meat to the U.S. this year after a trade war between Washington, D.C., and Beijing escalated. In May, Brazilian exports to the U.S. rose by 20%, and current imports from the country are almost double what they were in June 2024, according to the USDA.
With beef imports rising by 10% over the past year, a higher U.S. dependency on the product from abroad puts it more at risk should tariffs increase, particularly on top exporters to the U.S., the largest being Canada.
The U.S and Canada are currently in the midst of trade negotiations, with Trump most recently threatening a 35% tariff on all Canadian goods starting Aug. 1.
Global supply chains of beef have already been disrupted as a result of looming trade wars.
'There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the policy and trade front,' Ortega says, arguing that it has contributed to such price increases.
According to experts, even the slightest change within the beef market, as a result of tariffs, could further impact prices.
'Tariff-induced trade wars are sowing uncertainty for both ranchers and consumers alike. This has the potential to impact demand for beef, and even small changes in demand with such tight supplies could have a big impact on prices,' said Nelson.
Read More: Why Tomatoes Are Becoming a Lot More Expensive
How long will consumers feel the impact of these price increases?
When asked about when grocery shoppers could see prices start to fall, Ortega calls this the 'million dollar question.'
'Our research shows that it could be four years or so before prices for the consumer start to stabilize,' Ortega says.
Other price fluctuations, such as when eggs were reaching record-high prices earlier this year, were more 'predictable' as they were due to bird influenza outbreaks.
But as there's more at play regarding the ground beef price hikes, it's harder to know when things will settle.