Student arrivals to US continue to plummet, led by Asia decline
The declines were most pronounced from Asia, the largest international education market, as the Trump administration's immigration policies created bottlenecks and a chilling effect on prospective students.
Total arrivals on student visas decreased 28 per cent to just under 79,000, the biggest monthly drop so far this year, data from the International Trade Administration show. Student arrivals from India plummeted 46 per cent while China posted a 26 per cent decline. The twin drops from the two largest sources of foreign students provides a grim snapshot that threatens to disrupt the financial models of US colleges and universities.
US universities have already warned that first-time foreign student enrolment on campuses are projected to fall by about 30 per cent this fall, potentially costing the education sector US$2.6 billion in tuition revenue. The sharp downturn follows a series of policy changes and administrative hurdles from the White House around tightening immigration and foreign student scrutiny.
The measures have created a climate of uncertainty and resulted in significant backlogs and delays at US embassies and consulates in key Asian markets.
'There are real reasons for concern,' said Zuzana Cepla Wootson, deputy director of federal policy at the Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, whose members are university leaders. 'It's part of a broader pattern under this administration. The travel ban, expanded screening processes, appointment backlogs – all these create uncertainty for students from China, India and beyond.'
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The Trump administration announced a pause in interviews for student visas in late May. In mid June, the State Department said it would resume interviews, while also ordering reviews of applicants' social-media profiles. The timing of these policies, during the peak summer visa application season, has been particularly damaging and doesn't bode well for student arrivals in August, which historically is the peak month for new students entering the US.
The visitor arrival figures do not break down whether those coming in are new or returning students. Many already on student visas may have chosen to stay in the US and not travel this summer due to the administration's scrutiny of international scholars, Wootson said.
Officials at schools with large Asian student populations, such as the University of Southern California (USC), have said that that a continued decline could result in tens of millions of US dollars in lost revenue. USC already faces a deficit of US$200 million. Arizona State University President Michael Crow meanwhile said visa delays have been more disruptive than the pandemic.
A record 1.1 million international students enrolled in US higher education institutions in the 2023-2024 school year, according to Open Doors, which collects data on foreign scholars. India was the top country, with nearly 332,000 students, followed by China with about 277,000 that academic year. BLOOMBERG
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