What does fierce Hurricane Erin mean for the rest of the season?

USA Today

a day ago

Hurricane Erin, the first of the Atlantic season, briefly reached Catagory 5 status. What does the intense storm mean for the rest of the 2025?
Hurricane Erin, a Category 4 storm that's forecast to churn offshore of the East Coast of the U.S. for the next several days, briefly attained Category 5 status on Aug. 16 as it intensified in the Atlantic.
Category 5 hurricanes are the rarest of storms, with only a small fraction of all tropical cyclones reaching that intense wind speed of 157 mph or more.
Could this Category 5 storm – among the earliest on record – be a harbinger of a potentially catastrophic season to come? USA TODAY reached out to experts for their take on the question.
Is Erin a sign of a potentially catastrophic hurricane season to come?
'Erin's rapid intensification to Cat 5 does not mean potentially more Cat 5 hurricanes this year," said Yonggang Liu, an associate professor of physical oceanography at the University of South Florida and director of its Ocean Circulation Lab.
Colorado State University research scientist Levi Silvers, in an e-mail to USA TODAY, said that Erin's Cat 5 status doesn't affect the forecast for the rest of the season overall.
"Based on the atmospheric conditions and warm sea-surface temperature we do expect an above-average season. This includes a forecast of additional major hurricanes," he said. "The rapid intensification of Erin to a Category 5 hurricane was a bit startling to see, but it does not change our forecast."
Dan Brown, branch chief of the hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center, shared similar thoughts with USA TODAY: "There is little correlation between the occurrence of a Category 5 hurricane and the overall activity of the season."
Brown pointed to two previous seasons for comparison.
"In 1992, the first hurricane of the season was Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, but that storm was the only major hurricane in the Atlantic basin that year and only seven named storms formed overall," he said. "In contrast, during the 2024 hurricane season, Beryl became a Category 5 hurricane in July and four additional major hurricanes formed that year with a total of 18 named storms."
The most recent Colorado State University forecast, released earlier in August, calls for a total of a total of eight hurricanes in 2025, of which three are predicted to be major. Based on that forecast, seven hurricanes could still be expected to form in the remainder of 2025, of which two could be major.
Silvers also clarified the definition of a "catastrophic season."
"Unfortunately, it only takes one intense hurricane making landfall in a vulnerable region to result in a catastrophic season," he said. "Fortunately, Erin is not forecast to make landfall."
Brown agreed, saying "the most important lesson is to remember it only takes one hurricane to affect you for it to be a bad year where you live."
"As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, now is the time to find out if you live in an evacuation zone and make sure you have a hurricane plan in place," Brown said.
Is there any correlation between Cat 5s in August and activity in the remainder of the season?
Silvers said he's "not aware of a correlation between Category 5s in August and later season activity." But he added: "Since we still have not reached the climatological peak of the hurricane season, we do expect a lot of further activity."
The climatological peak of the season is usually around Sept. 10, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Overall, Silvers concluded that "one of the difficulties with this type of correlation is the small number of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes that occur in August. They are certainly not unprecedented, but they are rare, and this makes calculating robust statistical relationships difficult."
How fast did Hurricane Erin intensify?
Hurricane Erin's wind speeds rocketed Aug. 16, becoming a hurricane in just 18 hours. Erin, the fifth named storm of this season, quickly exceeded expectations after undergoing a period of strengthening the hurricane center refers to as "rapid intensification."
Erin's burst of intensification will be among the most rapid ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean.
Its winds increased 45 mph in just 12 hours overnight on Friday, Aug. 15, from 75 mph to 120 mph. Ultimately, its wind speeds increased a total of 80 mph in just 18 hours.
Hurricane Milton last year surpassed that mark. In a postseason summary of the 2024 hurricane season, NOAA reported Milton's rate of intensification – 90 mph in 24 hours in October 2024 – was "among the highest ever observed."
At least two other hurricanes have exceeded that increase. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma's winds increased 125 mph in 24 hours. In 2007, wind speeds in Hurricane Felix increased by 100 mph in 24 hours.
Read more: Hurricane Beryl's record-breaking history
How common are Cat 5s?
NOAA's database shows slightly more than 40 hurricanes on record have reached wind speeds of 157 mph or more, the minimum threshold for a Category 5 hurricane. However, records show there has been at least one Category 5 hurricane every year since 2022.
Erin became the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016. That is 11 in just nine years, according to University of Oklahoma student and hurricane mapmaker Michael Ferragamo.
That's the highest number of Cat 5 hurricanes recorded in a nine-year timeframe on record in a comprehensive database compiled by federal researchers, including the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic and Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. The database, which dates to 1851, is supported by decades of research into storm records, including ships logs and other historical accounts from the 19th century.
By decade, there have been eight Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic during the first two decades of this century. There have been five since 2020. Before this century, the greatest number of Cat 5s occurred in the 1930s, when there were six, and the 1960s, when there were five.
Ocean temperatures can contribute to storm strength
Ocean temperatures – at the surface and below the surface – can contribute to the rapid intensification of storms, the experts said.
Recent ocean data indicates Erin may be getting fuel from subsurface temperatures in the ocean, Liu said. "Subsurface ocean temperature information is critical," he added.
The latest data indicates temperatures are climbing in the upper layer of the ocean and at the surface.
The heat content in the upper layer of the ocean in the main region of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop is lower than at this time last year, but still warmer than normal.
Sea surface temperatures also have warmed in mid-August.
USA TODAY journalists Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver have covered hurricanes and other violent weather for decades. Reach them at [e-mail] and [e-mail].