Bearish bias to persist in India bonds as demand dampens post RBI policy
MUMBAI, June 11 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields could continue to witness a mild uptick in early deals on Wednesday, as investor appetite has taken a beating after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) changed its monetary policy stance.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is expected to move between 6.27% and 6.33%, a trader at a private bank said, compared with the previous close of 6.2946%, which was the highest since May 9.
The five-year 6.75% 2029 bond yield ended at 5.9513% in the previous session. Bond yields have been on a rising spree since Friday disappointed by the RBI's shift to "neutral" stance, signalling limited scope for rate cuts, after it delivered an outsized 50-basis point reduction.
"We thought the market was showing signs of recovery in the aftermath of (the RBI) policy, but yesterday's state debt cutoffs spoiled the party and we are back in the bearish grip that should persist for today," the trader said.
Weak demand for state debt at an auction on Tuesday, pushed yields, which move inversely to prices, above the 7% handle for the first time in this financial year. It weighed on the overall market sentiment, negating the gains in bond prices made earlier in the day due to value purchases.
The central bank is likely to keep rates on hold for the rest of this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The mid- to long-term bond yields have risen despite the steepest cut in policy rates in five years, as traders have chosen to focus on the central bank's guidance that the easing cycle is over, with some favouring the shorter end of the curve. RATES
Indian overnight index swap (OIS) rates are expected to witness paying pressure across the curve after they ended higher on Tuesday.
The one-year OIS rate ended at 5.54%, the two-year OIS rate INR2YMIBROIS=CC closed at 5.51% and the liquid five-year finished at 5.73%. KEY INDICATORS: ** Brent crude futures 0.2% were lower at $66.75 per barrel after easing 0.3% in previous session ** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.4639%; two-year yield at 4.0139% ** The RBI to auction treasury bills worth 190 billion rupees ($2.22 billion) ($1 = 85.5640 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
23 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Nepalese Foreign Minister calls for 'green energy cooperation' with India
Green energy cooperation will foster mutual interdependence between New Delhi and Kathmandu, Nepal's Foreign Minister Arzoo Rana Deuba said on Thursday, adding that it can be done by promoting clean and sustainable energy sources. India's commitment to import 10,000 MW electricity over the next decade reflects the growing momentum in Nepal-India energy cooperation, Deuba said while speaking at the NepalIndia Strategic Dialogue organised by think tanks Ananta Aspen Centre and Centre for Innovative Foreign Policy in Kathmandu. Nepal and India had signed a long-term agreement in January 2024 to facilitate the export of 10,000 MW of electricity to India in the next 10 years. The foremost priority in Nepal- India relations is the need to advance our economic partnership by intensifying cooperation in trade, transit and investment, Deuba asserted. Nepal's enormous hydro-potential offers a clean climate resilient and renewable energy source that can be harnessed for generations to come, she added. There are multiple well-endowed rivers originating in the higher reaches of the Himalayas the four main being Mahakali, Karnali, Sapta Gandaki, and Sapta Kosi flowing through different valleys and then cutting across plains before entering India to meet River Ganga. India has helped Nepal develop multiple hydropower projects on these high-volume rivers and more projects are in the pipeline; and the power export agreement comes as the next step in the bilateral relations. The minister also stressed on enhancing mutual connectivity by investing in roads, railways, waterways, airways and digital infrastructure. The country shares a border of over 1,850 kilometres with five Indian states - Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Land-locked Nepal relies heavily on India for the transportation of goods and services. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
India Today
28 minutes ago
- India Today
Is the Indian dream of studying in the US over?
(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 16, 2025)A chill wind is blowing through the hallowed halls of American academia, a wind carrying uncertainty and dashing the hopes of aspiring international students, particularly tens of thousands from India. The Trump administration, in a series of abrupt and unsettling moves, has begun to dismantle the welcome mat for global talent. The decision to pause new student visa appointments at US embassies worldwide on May 27, including in India, has plunged countless young scholars into a state of anxious limbo. This pause, officially justified by the need to expand the scrutiny of applicants' social media activity, is no mere procedural tweak; it signals a profound Indian students who have meticulously planned their futures around the promise of an American education, the dream now seems to teeter precariously on the edge of an opaque and shifting policy landscape, forcing many to question if the United States remains a safe or stable choice for their ambitions. One only has to look at the numbers to understand the implications of what is unfolding. In the 2023-24 academic year, the US hosted a record 1.13 million international students. Indian students accounted for 331,602, or around 30 per cent, of them, up by 23 per cent from the year before, while Chinese enrolment fell 4 per cent amid political tensions. A majority of the Indians choose STEM (scitech, engineering, mathematics) fields—42.9 per cent opted for maths and computer science, 24.5 per cent engineering that year. This is the talent that has helped fuel America's robust start-up ecosystem. While there is no nationality-wise break-up, estimates are that one in four US billion-dollar start-ups was founded by a former international student; immigrants have also co-founded nearly two-thirds of America's top AI (artificial intelligence) What makes the Trump administration's decision even more confounding is that the US risks losing the big bucks Indian students bring. According to the Indian Student Mobility Report, 2023-24 by global student housing marketplace University Living, Indian students were projected to spend $17.4 billion in the US in 2025, $10.1 billion on academic expenses alone, another $4 billion on accommodation, and the remaining $3.3 billion on other living costs. This is up from the $10.5 billion spent in 2022. 'International students fund American universities and enrich their intellectual climate,' says Timothy Gibson, president of the Virginia Conference of the American Association of University Professors. 'If the administration continues to view them through a xenophobic lens, the US risks losing its standing as a global leader in science and research.' The Trump administration has also put a freeze on several federal grants and funding programmes that facilitate international scholarships and student exchanges, the Fulbright and Gilman scholarship programmes among them. Another area of concern is the potential restrictions on the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which currently allows international STEM graduates to work in the US for up to three years. If the administration decides to limit or dismantle OPT, it would drastically reduce the opportunities for foreign graduates to gain practical work experience, jeopardising their career prospects and deterring future Subscribe to India Today Magazine HIGH ANXIETYadvertisementMary Gogoi, head of admissions at Delhi-based education counselling firm eduVelocity Global, says, 'All these developments have bred anxiety in international students, as well as among American universities that rely on this cohort for cultural diversity and financial sustainability.' Nothing illustrates this better than the case of a 24-year-old girl student, who does not wish to be named. Admitted into a US university for a master's in computer science with specialisation in AI, her visa application was rejected for no clear reason, forcing her to reapply. Keen on only the US as she finds it the best for research and innovation, she is thinking of deferring her course by a year if visas are not scheduled Trump administration's latest directive—to vet social media accounts before sanctioning a student visa—is also adding to the consternation. Of course, as Rohin Kapoor, partner, education and skilling at global consultancy firm BDO India, points out, social media vetting is not unique to the US; Australia and Canada, too, screen the social media posts of applicants. The current US policy also builds on social media checks introduced in 2019. Now, however, the State Department has said it will use 'all available information' to identify 'antisemitic activity', 'pro-jihadist' views or 'anti-American' sentiments. Charles H. Kuck, founding partner of Atlanta-based law firm Kuck Baxter, which specialises in immigration laws, explains what this means. 'Social media vetting has existed for years,' he says. 'But now artificial intelligence reviews all postings. This violates the core American values of free speech and personal liberty; yet, the administration shows little concern for those principles when it comes to foreigners.' Poorvi Chothani, managing partner at immigration law firm LawQuest, also sees a stark departure from earlier policy. 'Previously, checks were random or suspicion-based,' she says. 'Now they're mandatory for all student visas.'advertisementHowever, things aren't easy even for those who manage to secure visas. They face constant scrutiny: US agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) now wants students to show proof of full-time enrolment and perfect attendance, with deportation a looming consequence for any slip. Pablo S. Bose, professor of Geography and Geosciences and associate dean of research and graduate education at the University of Vermont, points out how Trump's crackdown is not restricted to new enrolments. The administration has revoked more than 300 visas, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming the real figure may be in the thousands. Many of the students are targeted for presumed links to pro-Palestinian activism or alleged online support for 'terrorism'. Another 5,000 students have been expelled for minor infractions, ranging from underage drinking to traffic these measures affect who universities can host, whether current students can stay, and if graduates can work,' says Bose. 'The confusion and anxiety created have already had disastrous consequences.' The mood of many Indian students enrolled in the US is one of fear and extreme caution, with most keeping a low profile and staying informed. Lubaina Kapasi, 19, a sophomore at the Savannah College of Arts, a private university in Georgia, has so far not felt the full brunt of the clampdown on international students compared to those studying in some public universities in the US. Yet, she says, 'It doesn't mean we are fully in the clear. International students, especially from India, give up a lot financially and personally to study here. To then be faced with policy uncertainty and visa complications feels like a nightmare.' THE POLITICS OF ITThe Trump administration's clampdown on international students has been cast as a matter of national security, yet it reeks of a very different, cultural, battlefield. It stems from a desire to police campus discourse, with the administration viewing many universities as excessively 'left-wing' and failing to curb pro-Palestinian activism, which it flatly equates with antisemitism or support for terrorism. Officially, the White House insists the heightened vetting is a 'commonsense measure' to ensure newcomers pose no threat. 'It's a privilege, not a right, to study in the United States,' says White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. The State Department says every visa decision is 'a national security decision'. Trump has suggested that foreign student enrolment at Harvard be capped at 15 per cent from the current 31 per cent, claiming that Americans are losing out. J.D. Vance, his vice president, shares the sentiment, arguing that foreign students 'take spots from American kids'.It is not fooling anyone. Gibson says this is less about immigration, more about tightening controls on universities. 'Trump views colleges with suspicion. The knowledge they produce challenges his worldview,' he says. Issues like climate change and Covid-19 exemplify this, where scientific findings trump Trump's claims. Prof. Rajiv Sethi of Barnard College, Columbia University, recalls how Vance once declared that American conservatism would triumph only by capturing or dismantling elite Mukherjee, Jerome L. Greene clinical professor of law, and director, Immigrants' Rights Clinic, Columbia Law School, says the policy 'seems driven by cruelty, white nationalism and racism', with visa decisions now vulnerable to prejudice arising out of race, religion and political views. This security narrative has expanded to include counter-terrorism and antisemitism. The Department of Homeland Security warns that 'antisemitic activity on social media' and 'harassment of Jewish individuals' may affect migrant visas. Visa eligibility is now linked to the administration's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is also part of a wider ideological assault on universities deemed too liberal. Harvard, for instance, is accused by the Trump administration of fostering antisemitism and promoting diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, which it sees as racist (see column Anatomy of a Standoff). Columbia University, on the other hand, risks losing its accreditation over claims it violated the civil rights of its Jewish students. LIMITED LEGAL RECOURSEAs international students, particularly from India, navigate the uncertainties thrown up by the Trump administration's new visa policies, they are exploring the legal avenues available to them, the specifics of the expanded social media vetting, and support structures. For individual students, the financial stakes are steep. B.K. Shukla of The Ivy League Edge, a college application consultancy, notes that university applications alone cost Rs 10,000-15,000 per institution, while education consultants typically charge Rs 5-6 lakh. Many students have already paid tuition fees or booked housing, sums that may not be refundable. The real blow, though, Shukla says, is in the opportunity cost. 'Losing a year means forgoing a degree, work experience and an early start to a career.' The risk is not just in the money, but also the Indian students whose visa applications have been put on indefinite hold, direct legal avenues seem severely limited. The US Supreme Court has ruled that the State Department is immune from lawsuits over the denial of a visa abroad under what is called the consular non-reviewability doctrine. 'When a person requests a visa for a country, it is a request to that government, not a right,' says BDO's Kapoor. 'A case filed in an Indian court will have no locus standi to direct a foreign government. The only recourse for students is to send a petition to the US embassy in India requesting an update on their visa status or seeking expedited processing.' Kuck offers some practical advice: 'Students can better prepare for an interview, ascertain the underlying reason for the denial, and bring evidence and verbal description of how to overcome that initial decision.' Indian consultants also recommend students erase even mild political posts or join 'safe' groups on social though the Trump administration's new student visa measures will primarily affect individuals and institutions, they may also have diplomatic reverberations. The Indian ministry of external affairs (MEA) has publicly urged the US to 'ensure timely issuance of student visas based on merit'. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, while acknowledging that 'a visa is a sovereign right of a country', emphasised this appeal and reiterated that 'the welfare of Indian students abroad remains a top priority for the Government of India'. A GLIMMER OF HOPEEven as the clouds of uncertainty hover, many see it as a temporary reset rather than a permanent barrier for the world's best and brightest. Vibha Kagzi, a Harvard alumna and founder of foreign education consultancy believes the 'American dream' is merely being recalibrated, not extinguished. 'Historically, policy shifts in international education have corrected themselves, especially with strong pushback from universities, industry leaders and lawmakers who value global talent,' she says. She also believes the US still offers unmatched advantages in scale, research funding, alumni networks and global Chaturvedi of study abroad platform Leverage Edu, thinks likewise. 'This isn't a shutdown,' he says, 'but a systemic reset in how the US engages with global talent. America has always bounced back, and these cyclical shifts often create more inclusive and outcome-focused systems.' Shukla believes top-tier universities will remain largely unaffected. 'The crackdown seems aimed at filtering those who misuse admissions at obscure institutions just to settle in the US,' he says. 'For highly skilled roles, like data analysis or cybersecurity, US still needs international talent.'There are also those who think the new vetting process of international student visas will improve immigration screening. University Living founder and CEO Saurabh Arora says, 'Scrutiny of social media handles, email addresses and phone numbers from applicants over the past five years will better verify identities, prevent fraud and ensure a safe environment for living in the US.' Aman Singh of GradRight, an agency that guides students on finding suitable colleges and funding, believes legitimate applications will continue to be processed. 'Students actively stoking anti-US sentiment may face trouble, and new vetting steps could slow decisions,' he notes. 'Yet, with sophisticated AI tools parsing global chatter, delays are unlikely to be drastic.' ALTERNATIVES TO AMERICAIn the long run, the Trump administration's visa clampdown threatens not just foreign students, but also the economic lifeblood of higher education in the US and its innovative edge. Many universities, especially those outside the Ivy League, depend on full-paying foreign students to subsidise domestic education. A drop in enrolment would plug this crucial revenue stream. Indian students are already exploring backup plans. They are considering deferring admissions, or looking at alternative countries. Bengaluru-based Nishant (name changed), who will complete his BTech in electronics engineering next May, is among those reconsidering their choices. 'People who have already finished their master's [in the US] still haven't found jobs,' he says. 'Is it worth it then to spend so much in the US when places like Germany offer more subsidised tuition?'Enrolment patterns of Indian students reflect the shift. Between 2023 and 2024, Germany saw a 49 per cent rise in Indian students, from 23,296 to 34,702, as per a response by Union minister of state of education Sukanta Majumdar in Parliament. Kalpesh Banker of EduShine Search Partners, an education strategy consulting firm, lists the advantages of other destinations. 'Canada has friendly visa policies and post-study work permits, Australia and the UK offer strong research and shorter courses. Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore and the UAE, too, are rising education hubs, with low fees, cultural diversity and robust facilities.'Meanwhile, the Trump administration's crackdown on international students signals more than just bureaucratic tinkering; it portends a potential reordering of America's relationship with global talent. Cloaked in the garb of national security, a legitimate concern for any country, these policies are sowing confusion and fear, eroding the very advantages that have underpinned American academic and innovative pre-eminence. A recalibration is indeed in order: one balancing security with openness and reaffirming the value of international students. Else the US could squander its role as a magnet for the world's brightest.—with Ajay SukumaranMust Watch
Mint
30 minutes ago
- Mint
Retail inflation cools to a six-year low of 2.82% in May on moderating food prices
New Delhi: Retail inflation in India cooled to its lowest level in over six years in May, helped by a sharp moderation in food prices, according to provisional government data released Thursday. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation eased to 2.82% year-on-year, down from 3.16% in April and 4.8% in May last year, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed. This marks the fourth consecutive month of sub-4% inflation, the longest such streak in at least five years. The data comes just days after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, its third straight cut and a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since the easing cycle began in February. The move signals a possible pivot from inflation control to supporting growth. Food inflation came in at just 0.99% in May, down from 1.78% in April and a sharp decline from 8.69% a year ago. A Mint poll of 15 economists had projected CPI inflation to ease to 3% in May. The actual reading reinforces the view that price pressures are softening across several key consumption categories. Retail inflation last dipped below 3% for six consecutive months between November 2018 and April 2019—a period during which the RBI also cut rates by 50 basis points. Food prices continued to cool in May, with with slower price increases in cereals, eggs, and fruits compared to April. Prices of meat, fish, vegetables, and pulses declined declined during the month to offering some relief to households. However, inflation remained sticky in essential items such as milk and dairy products, edible oils, and non-alcoholic beverages, highlighting the uneven nature of the overall moderation. Inflation in the food and beverages category rose 1.5% year-on-year in May, easing from 2.14% in April and 2.88% in March. Prices in other core categories remained largely stable. Clothing and footwear inflation held at 2.67% in May, unchanged from April and slightly above March's 2.62%. At the state level, 12 of 22 major states reported inflation below the national average of 2.8%, including Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The central bank's rate setting panel held its ground on the GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 6.5% in its June review, offering a measure of stability amid persistent global uncertainties. The central bank had initially projected a 6.7% expansion but revised it downward in April, flagging risks from rising trade and policy volatility—including the potential impact of a return to steep, Trump-era tariffs that could strain Asia's third-largest economy. With inflation expected to average 4% over the year, ranging from 3.6% in the first quarter to 4.4% by the end, the RBI may begin to gradually shift focus from taming prices to reviving credit and supporting growth, especially in what may turn out to be a softer economic year.
