Why Pete Crow-Armstrong is bigger NL MVP challenger to Shohei Ohtani than you think
Oddsmakers are essentially handing the National League Most Valuable Player award to Shohei Ohtani for the second straight year.
Could you blame them? The Dodgers' two-way star has been one of the best hitters in baseball – again – and he's back on the pitcher's mound.
But Ohtani is not as much of a shoo-in as he was last season, and his competition is much stronger this time around.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has burst onto the scene as one of the best players in the sport, and he's arguably been more valuable than Ohtani in 2025.
The Cubs have also been the slightly better team, leading the Dodgers, who haven't been the juggernaut they expected to be, by a half game in the standings heading into Saturday's play.
This begs the question, why is Ohtani, who is currently -1150 to win the award at FanDuel Sportsbook, so heavily favored over PCA, who has the second-best odds (+1000)?
Wins above replacement isn't the end-all-be-all, but it paints a much different picture than Vegas odds boards.
Crow-Armstrong currently leads Ohtani by a healthy margin in both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR, even when taking into account the latter's time on the bump.
Oddsmakers are probably anticipating Ohtani to bridge that gap now that he's back pitching, but he hasn't shown the ability to pitch deep into games at all, and time is running out to make a real impact there.
Ohtani has made seven starts and has thrown just 15 innings.
Last time out, he had to leave the game early with cramps.
The Japanese star's hitting numbers are all down from the gaudy numbers he put up in 2024 as well.
Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on from the on deck circle in the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field on August 01, 2025 in Tampa, Florida.
Getty Images
Ohtani is slashing .271/.376/.604, which are all a couple of ticks below last season, and his stolen bases are way down from 59 to just 13 this season.
Unlike Ohtani, Crow-Armstrong is playing the field, and arguably doing it better than any player in baseball, making SportsCenter Top 10-worthy plays on a near-nightly basis in center field.
His numbers at the plate aren't all that far off from Ohtani's, too, hitting .273/.309/.560 with 27 homers and 29 stolen bases.
As mentioned, Ohtani's team is doing him no favors either.
After coming into this season with one of the highest win totals ever, the Dodgers are barely holding on in the NL West, sitting just three games up on the Padres, who had a massive trade deadline with the division in sight, heading into Saturday's play.
Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates a home run against the Kansas City Royals during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field on July 23, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.
Getty Images
How could voters give Ohtani the award if the Dodgers blew the division over the next two months?
Locked in a tough battle with the Brewers, Cubs may not win their division either, but they've outplayed their preseason projections, largely thanks to the emergence of Crow-Armstrong.
Lastly, we should expect some voter fatigue with Ohtani, who has won MVPs in three of the past four seasons, finishing second in the AL MVP voting in the only season he didn't win the award.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
Ohtani's name value has him lapping the field, but the race between him and PCA is much closer than assumed after a deeper look.
But if the season continues as is, will voters really reward him for this relatively underwhelming season with a rising superstar as the alternative?
Grab Crow-Armstrong to pull off the upset in the NL MVP race before the rest of the baseball world catches on.
The play: Pete Crow-Armstrong to win NL MVP (+1000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He's particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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Chicago Tribune
15 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
Column: Still time for Chicago Cubs to recover from Jed Hoyer's painful swing-and-miss at trade deadline
Jed Hoyer's season has basically mirrored the team he runs. A great start that led to accolades and a contract extension from Chicago Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts three days before the trade deadline has been followed by a late summer drought that threatens to spoil a dreamlike season. The Cubs now trail the Milwaukee Brewers by four games after leading them by 6½ on June 18. Hoyer's lost gamble on Michael Soroka's health at the trade deadline puts the rotation in another bind. So the damage is done. But there's still time for the Cubs to get back on course, starting Friday in St. Louis, where they open a six-game trip against the Cardinals and red-hot Toronto Blue Jays. Whether Hoyer will recover from the Soroka mess might depend on whether the Cubs make the postseason. They began Thursday with a 97.2% chance, according to FanGraphs, though their odds of taking the division had plummeted to 32.5%. Cubs fans are understandably upset with Hoyer, who made a lot of noise about acquiring a starting pitcher for the stretch run and then settled on the Washington Nationals' Soroka, citing a 'tight market' and unreasonable asking prices for frontline starters. The Cubs kept their top prospects, which seemed to be Hoyer's most important goal, even at the risk of a better shot at postseason success. As Hoyer explained his decision-making to the media at the team's office building next to Wrigley Field, a siren blared from the Waveland Avenue firehouse, increasing in volume as he spoke. You can't make this stuff up. Whether Hoyer heard the alarm bells is unknown. Soroka's injury history, however, was well-known, and his recent numbers with the Nationals weren't impressive: an 0-5 record with a 4.87 ERA over his last nine starts. But he had 52 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings in that span, and the Cubs needed a swing-and-miss guy out of the bullpen, which was probably where Soroka was headed once Jameson Taillon returned. Hoyer had tried to sign Soroka in the offseason, despite an 0-10 record and 4.74 ERA with the 2024 White Sox. But the Nationals surprised almost everyone with a one-year, $9 million offer that was too pricey for Hoyer. He smartly changed course and wound up signing the more affordable Colin Rea a month later for a guaranteed $5 million with a $6 million option for 2026. Though Rea competed for a starting job in spring training, he lost out to Ben Brown and wound up in the bullpen until Justin Steele's season-ending elbow injury in April forced him back into the rotation. Soroka's velocity was trending down with the Nationals, from a 94.9 mph fastball average on June 22 to a 90.9 average on July 23. He underwent an MRI 'for my peace of mind' before his last start with the Nationals, and the Cubs were aware of the test results. When he reported to work at Wrigley, Soroka told the media Sunday the drop in velocity was not a big concern. 'Going through stuff, things we worked through (in Washington),' he said. 'We talked to the Cubs when that happened and they were aware. I think that's something we can move through pretty quickly and get going with. 'Obviously we deal with struggles, whether it be physical or mechanical or whatever it is. Got to keep competing. I've found I can compete with a couple less miles an hour, though it's nice to have 96-97 in the back pocket. We can make it work for now. I have confidence it will be back before long.' But Soroka's four-seam fastball never got above 91 mph in a 31-pitch debut against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, and he was removed after two innings and placed on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain. Cubs fans were apoplectic. From appearances, it looked as though the Cubs received damaged goods. But Hoyer knew the risk and admitted as much when he spoke to the media Tuesday, saying, 'Right now, it's not looking like a good bet.' Executives take gambles on players with injury histories all the time, and manager Craig Counsell pointed out Hoyer also took one on Matthew Boyd, who turned into an All-Star and one of the game's top starters this year. But Boyd had been effective after returning last August with the Cleveland Guardians, who gambled on him by signing him in June 2024 while he rehabbed from a year off after Tommy John surgery. Soroka, meanwhile, was average at best this season for the Nationals, even without the velocity question. The timing of the injury could not have been worse, with the Cubs losing ground in the division to the Brewers and Hoyer having just agreed to an extension. The move was reminiscent of a six-player offseason deal between the White Sox and Blue Jays in January 2001 that sent starter David Wells and reliever Matt DeWitt to Chicago in return for starter Mike Sirotka and three other players. Sirotka passed a physical, but a second exam revealed a possible torn labrum. The Blue Jays asked the league for compensation when Sirotka was deemed damaged goods with the labrum and rotator cuff injuries in a controversy dubbed 'Shouldergate.' 'My first thought is that I was hurt when they traded me,' Sirotka said after the deal. 'I don't know if you can blame both sides for either not being truthful or not knowing how serious it was. But the bottom line is, I was hurt before the trade.' But Commissioner Bud Selig upheld the transaction with a 14-page ruling that blamed the Blue Jays for not doing their due diligence. He wrote: 'The 'caveat emptor' rule, as developed in baseball, to which exceptions are exceedingly rare, is meant to decrease the potential for disputes by placing the burden on the acquiring club to seek the media information it feels it needs.' Sirotka never pitched in the majors again, and it was just a small chapter in the career of former Sox general manager Ken Williams. Hopefully Soroka's injury isn't serious enough to merit a 'Shouldergate II' and he'll return to the Cubs after resting the shoulder a few weeks. But if he isn't able to pitch — or struggles when he returns — it would be Hoyer's burden to bear. A prime chance to upgrade the rotation would be considered wasted, and it would be up to Taillon, Brown or Javier Assad to give the Cubs a dependable fourth starter for October to go with Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton. That's assuming the Cubs get there, which depends on their streaky offense returning to form. Amazingly, they still ranked second behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in runs scored through Wednesday, despite being tied for 22nd since the All-Star break. That shows how dominant they were for a 3½-month stretch, and it's why Hoyer and Counsell are optimistic they'll rebound. But it's not just one or two players. Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Carson Kelly all need to pick up the pace, or else the rotation conundrum won't matter. Is it time for fans to start focusing on the wild-card race and concede the National League Central to the Brewers? Not at all. A five-game showdown Aug. 18-21 at Wrigley looms, and if the Cubs can narrow the gap or take the lead after that series, there's no reason to think they can't win the division and even earn a bye with one of the league's top two records. They're treading water, not collapsing, but with the Brewers streaking, all bets are off. The Cubs' swing-and-miss on landing a top starter at the trade deadline — and then getting an injured one — has tempered expectations from many fans. Most figured Hoyer would go for it with Tucker's future uncertain and a team that looked certain to make some noise in October. The contract extension coincided with a more conservative approach by Hoyer. Only he knows if he would've swung a bigger deal had his own future been on the line.
Boston Globe
2 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Here's how Roman Anthony, even at just 21 years old, has changed the Red Sox since arriving in the big leagues
The Red Sox had staggered through the early part of the schedule when they decided to call up Anthony on June 9. They owned a 32-35 record, placing them fourth in the AL East. They are 32-17 since, best in the American League. Advertisement That's not solely because of Anthony, of course. There have been numerous, massive changes that have reshaped the roster since then. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Still, there's no question Anthony changed the dynamic of the club. Through 47 games entering Friday night's series opener in San Diego, he's hit .276/.392/.417, exhibiting remarkable plate discipline and patience that teammates suggest has had a ripple effect throughout the lineup. He is just the fifth player in the 21st century who, at 21 or younger, posted an OBP of .390 or better through his first 47 career games, joining Fernando Tatís Jr., Juan Soto, Jason Heyward, and Albert Pujols. Related : Anthony also has impressed with his base running and outfield play, grading as an above-average defender in the corners. Overall, he's produced 1.5 WAR in the calculations of FanGraphs. Yet even that marker of production is inadequate to capture who Anthony is and what he's done. Advertisement 'I think [what Anthony has done] is special. I think it's remarkable,' said Breslow. 'And I'm not sure that there's a metric that we should look at uniquely and believe that it perfectly captures the impact that he's had. We can look at his contribution, whether that's WAR or any of those. We could look at our team record. 'But I think that we've talked a lot over the last couple of months about this athletic, dynamic team that we're looking to build, and Roman suits that perfectly.' This isn't the first time the Sox have seen a team elevate its play once Anthony joined it. Raves started pouring in about Anthony as an 18-year-old making his pro debut in the Florida Complex League in 2022, shortly after he'd been drafted in the second round and signed to a $2.5 million bonus. Roman Anthony makes a sliding catch to secure an out against the Rays in his first Major League series. Barry Chin/Globe Staff Even in the FCL, the words 'mature' and 'maturity' were used so often that it was easy to forget Anthony was the youngest player on the team. His reputation only grew across levels, as players and coaches got to appreciate his talent and what mattered to him. Last year, when he was promoted to Triple A Worcester along with Kyle Teel and Marcelo Mayer, the team had a 53-60 record. Down the stretch, as Anthony solidified his case as the top prospect in baseball, the WooSox were 26-11. 'When we had him last year in Worcester, what he did to our team as far as wins and losses from the moment that he came up, we're seeing a copy-paste exactly of what happened when he came up to Worcester,' said Red Sox first base coach José Flores, who was the WooSox' bench coach last year. 'So I'm not surprised at all.'' Advertisement Flores, who was a minor league coordinator with the Cubs from 2013-17, suggested Anthony's impact upon arrival in the big leagues reminded him of Kyle Schwarber's with the Cubs in 2015, when a young team working to establish itself suddenly hit another gear. Anthony is a rookie but is respected as a sage by older teammates. 'You see the quality of at-bats this guy's taking on a daily basis, that's contagious,' said Flores. 'Trevor Story, a guy who's been in the big leagues a long time, seeing this kid, how comfortable he looks in the batter's box, they had conversations, and Trevor may have picked up something that he hadn't been thinking about through the course of the struggles he was having early. Now, all of a sudden, you're seeing a lot more success than struggle.' Related : Anthony's comportment on the field and among his teammates has been jarringly impressive. He's gifted but looks to coaches and teammates for insight on ways he can improve. He does not seek attention but is comfortable with it, and has shown a remarkable ability to handle the media and frame all comments through the prism of team success. He constantly seeks the feedback of veterans, yet already has earned their respect to the point that more experienced teammates turn to him for advice on the field. Advertisement 'I'm not sure I've ever been around a guy who has the type of impact that he has at that age,' said third base coach Kyle Hudson, who recalled his astonishment when Anthony introduced himself in spring training by asking for help to improve his sliding. 'That's the reason why we are where we are right now, and why he is where he is, just because his approach to everybody, and his approach to the game is about winning. That's what it's all about for him. There's not a selfish bone in his body . . . People are drawn to him. People want to talk to him. People want to pick his brain.' After wins, the Red Sox recognize a player of the game, who briefly addresses his teammates. Pitcher Garrett Crochet said he was 'caught off guard' by how mature, poised, and well-spoken Anthony was the first time he received the recognition. 'He's one of the more mature 21-year-olds I think that has ever come through major league baseball,' said Crochet. 'You mix his work ethic with his discipline, and that's kind of what you see on the field. It's been a pro at-bat since Day One. He never seems overwhelmed or overmatched. For me, it's really just the maturity that's the biggest thing.' Teammate Alex Bregman suggested Anthony's at-bats reminded him of Yordan Alvarez when the Astros slugger arrived in the big leagues and instantly became one of the league's best hitters as a 22-year-old in 2019. Pitcher Walker Buehler compared Anthony's presence to that of former Dodgers teammates Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, both of whom won Rookie of the Year honors and eventually emerged as the MVP (Bellinger) or runner-up (Seager). Advertisement Yet there's also the dimension of how Anthony carries himself ― how he manages to display a 'Jeter gene' in how he fields every question, whether reframing all personal successes by discussing the team or taking the time to appreciate teammates, as when he opened his discussion of a recent back injury by praising Wilyer Abreu's fill-in. 'He wants to win,' said manager Alex Cora. 'He's shown it in the interviews [and] the way he goes about his business.' Indeed, the decision by Anthony to sign underscored and amplified that commitment. 'The main goal is just show up every day and be the best version of myself and get better each and every day and try to help this team win,' Anthony said. 'And obviously, now that this [deal] is done, it's even more [of] a reason to just go out and be the best version of myself and win baseball games.' A fan holds up a custom Roman Anthony sign after the outfielder signed his eight-year contract extension. Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff Alex Speier can be reached at
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Dodgers warned Padres better in two areas that could decide NL West
Dodgers warned Padres better in two areas that could decide NL West originally appeared on The Sporting News Two games separate the San Diego Padres from the Los Angeles Dodgers as the race to win the NL West is brewing to be tight. So, who will come out on top? Foul Territory's Cameron Maybin gave his take on which team will be left standing at the top. San Diego was busy leading up to last month's MLB trade deadline, securing Mason Miller from the Athletics and trading for Baltimore Orioles' Ryan O'Hearn. The Padres made moves that not only have them in the postseason race, but also give them a chance to win the division. This month, Los Angeles and San Diego will collide for six games that likely determine who wins the NL West. On Thursday's edition of "Foul Territory," Maybin explained why he sees the Padres coming from behind to take the division from the Dodgers because of pitching and defense. MORE:Padres' Michael King set to return for Saturday start "Things just feel right for the Padres," Maybin said. "When you talk about being able to shorten the game and make it a five-inning game, the Padres have just that. I mean, if somebody gets in trouble at the bullpen, they can go to another guy. They can go to another guy. They don't have to wish and hope that, 'Hey, this guy figures it out a batter or two from now.' And I just think that lineup—right now—I love the pieces that they added. "Defensively, I think they're better. I think the starting rotation is better right now. I don't know how healthy those guys will be. And then, too, just coming into the season on the back end, thinking that these guys are going to dominate—the Snell's of the world and some of the other guys that they'll have come back. Yeah, I'm leaning towards the Padres on both ends for sure." Los Angeles have an edge over the Padres this season, winning five of the seven games they have played between the two sides. Nonetheless, that was before San Diego made moves leading up to the trade deadline, so the Dodgers will face a slightly different team. The first three-game series between the rivals will take place August 15-17 at Dodger Stadium. The final three games are scheduled for August 22-24 at Petco Park.
