Gold at a crossroads: Will fed's hawkish pause and Iran conflict spark a $3,400 breakout?
Gold prices are currently under pressure due to the US Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. This has strengthened the US Dollar. Geopolitical tensions and trade worries offer some support to gold. Spot gold is trading near $3,387. Technical levels to watch include support at $3,322 and resistance at $3,374.
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Why is gold falling today?
The Fed now expects only one rate cut of 25 bps in both 2026 and 2027.
This 'hawkish' view supports the US Dollar and pressures gold.
Tired of too many ads?
Remove Ads
Geopolitics and trade tensions still support gold
US Senate Intel Chair said Trump wants to give Iran a last chance to end its nuclear program.
Trump is reportedly delaying any strikes for about two weeks.
Gold price now and key levels to watch
Spot gold trades just below $3,350, after falling earlier in the day.
Earlier this week, gold touched a nearly 2-month high close to $3,452.
The US Dollar pulled back after a recent peak, giving gold slight support.
Technical view: Can gold stay above key support?
Immediate support: $3,323–$3,322
Next support: $3,300
Key resistance: $3,374–$3,375
Next hurdle: $3,400
Upside target if breakout happens: $3,434–$3,435, then $3,451–$3,452
Major breakout point: $3,500 (psychological level, also near top of ascending channel)
What traders should watch next
If gold drops below $3,322, it may fall further to $3,300 or even lower.
If gold breaks above $3,400, it could aim for $3,435 and even $3,452.
A clear move above $3,500 could open the door to test $3,550 or $3,600.
RSI is weakening but close to key levels; a move back above 60 would signal strength.
Today's focus: Geopolitics and the Fed outlook
US–Iran tensions: US officials reportedly preparing strike options; Trump says, 'I may do it. I may not.'
Fed signals fewer rate cuts in future years, boosting the Dollar and limiting gold upside.
Gold prices are facing selling pressure even though there are some factors that could help support them. The Federal Reserve's tough stance on interest rates is helping the US Dollar and putting pressure on gold.Trade worries and increasing geopolitical tensions may support gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold prices have dropped to their lowest in over a week, trading just below a key level in early European trading. This comes after the Fed recently lowered its forecast for future rate cuts, which boosts the US Dollar and reduces demand for gold, since it doesn't pay interest.Gold is under pressure again even though some factors could support it. Prices are hovering just under $3,350 after falling earlier in the day. Traders are watching global risks and the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate outlook.The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same but said it now plans fewer rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. This made the US Dollar stronger and reduced demand for gold, which doesn't give any interest.On top of that, European stock markets are doing well, which is reducing safe-haven demand for gold.Even with the pressure, gold still has some support. Rising tensions in the Middle East are worrying investors. The fight between Iran and Israel has now gone on for eight days. There's also speculation that the US may get involved.At the same time, US–China trade worries are growing again. Trump has warned of new tariffs on the pharma sector, and more could come before the July 9 'liberation day' tariff deadline.This kind of uncertainty usually supports gold as a safe asset.Gold has dropped below the 100-period SMA and is testing the lower edge of an ascending channel. Momentum indicators are losing strength, especially on hourly charts.For now, gold is trading between $3,322 and $3,400. A clear breakout from this range could set the direction for the coming weeks.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
41 minutes ago
- Time of India
S&P 500, Nasdaq finish lower; investors uneasy about Middle East conflict
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Friday, with investors on edge over the Iran-Israel conflict heading into the weekend, as the U.S. considers whether to get involved. Trading was choppy for much of the session. The S&P 500 also ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq registered a weekly gain. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 23.7% Returns in last 5 years with Shriram Life's ULIP Shriram Life Insurance Undo Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear program while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations. The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, adding pressure on Tehran to negotiate. "Investors are a little bit nervous about buying stocks right in front of this situation and, more specifically, right in front of this weekend," said Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey. Live Events Israel's attacks have been aimed at suppressing Tehran's ability to build nuclear weapons. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had hit dozens of military targets. Tech-related megacap stocks, including Nvidia, were among the biggest negatives on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 35.16 points, or 0.08%, to 42,206.82, the S&P 500 lost 13.03 points, or 0.22%, to 5,967.84 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 98.86 points, or 0.51%, to 19,447.41. For the week, the Dow was little changed, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Nasdaq was up 0.2%. Friday's volume was higher than the recent average. The day marked a "triple-witching" event, which is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts that takes place once every quarter. U.S. exchanges' volume was 20.91 billion shares, compared with the 18.06 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Investors also weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials after the Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned inflation could pick up pace over the summer as Trump's tariffs work their way to consumers. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small, and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin took a more tempered view, saying there was no urgency to cut rates. Kroger shares jumped 9.8% after the grocery chain increased its annual sales growth forecast. Shares of Accenture fell 6.9% after the IT services provider said new bookings decreased in the third quarter. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 102 new highs and 59 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,894 stocks rose and 2,651 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.4-to-1 ratio. (Additional reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Rod Nickel)
Time of India
43 minutes ago
- Time of India
Macron challenges Europe to rival US, China in space
By Tim Hepher, Giulia Segreti, Makini Brice PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron threw France's backing behind plans for a European satellite manufacturing champion and called for accelerated deployment of Starlink-type satellites as he declared space the new theatre for world power competition. Speaking at the Paris Airshow on Friday, after France moved to take control of Starlink competitor Eutelsat , Macron called for an energetic push spanning launchers to manufacturing and services as he set out a strategy to counter the sprawling rocket-to-telecoms interests of U.S. billionaire Elon Musk. Staged amid the conflict between Israel and Iran, the world's largest aerospace event has mostly been dominated by geopolitical and trade tensions and fragile supply chains, rather than the usual glittering jetliner order announcements. On Friday, attention turned from defence displays to space. "At the intersection of all these public and private questions, as well as civil, military, scientific and industrial ones, space has in some way become a gauge of international power," Macron said in a speech to delegates. Europe has taken a lead in Earth observation but has struggled for years to keep up with the United States and China in a domain now considered as strategic as the planet's oceans. It lost independent access to orbit for more than a year in 2023 following technical problems, delays and a breakdown of ties with Russia over Ukraine that halted use of Soyuz rockets. Despite Europe being the world's largest exporter of satellites, its two main manufacturers - Airbus and a tie-up between Thales and Italy's Leonardo - have struggled to make money and want to pool those activities. "They have our full support and confidence. I want us to build this new champion as soon as possible," Macron said. "This is what will allow us, as Europeans, to have the scale to improve competitiveness and volume. It's a sector consolidation." Under pressure from Musk's cheaper low Earth-orbit Starlink satellites and a shift away from bespoke satellites in higher orbit, Airbus, Thales and Leonardo have said they are discussing plans code-named Project Bromo to forge a combined venture. Previous efforts to pool satellite-making have been thwarted by competition concerns. DEFENCE SPENDING In a third battleground, the importance of satellite services and connectivity has been highlighted by Ukraine. On Thursday, France agreed to inject $1.55 billion into debt-laden Eutelsat, sending its shares soaring. U.S. and Chinese spending on space dwarfs European budgets and insiders say industrial squabbling has curbed co-operation. The European Space Agency says the U.S. accounted for nearly two-thirds of the global space budget in 2023; Europe just 11%. Space budgets may get a lift from defence funds flowing into the sector. But fiscal room for Macron's new agenda is tight. "Partnership between public and private capital will be needed and this requires a considerable effort", said Jean-Pierre Darnis, associate fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research. France is struggling to get public finances under control after spending spiralled higher last year. Europe is already hiking defence spending after U.S. President Donald Trump's team made clear that the United States was no longer willing to be the main guarantor of Europe's security. "The big story of this show is sovereignty in the wake of some of the statements by (Trump) questioning U.S. commitment to Europe and to NATO," said Vago Muradian, founder of the Defense & Aerospace Report. Macron flew into Le Bourget days before a NATO summit on a French Air Force A400M transport plane - itself a symbol of Europe's shifting priorities after years of battles over costs. The future of Europe's troop plane had been under threat after some of its European NATO sponsor nations including France and Spain slowed the pace of deliveries or cut their orders. Exports have also fallen short of expectations. But Airbus signed an agreement with procurement agency OCCAR at the show to stabilise production until 2029. Weapons makers and buyers are increasingly touting the label "ITAR-free" to avoid getting caught up in U.S. export controls for certain components, a senior European industry official said. ITAR stands for International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Some U.S. suppliers are scoping out ways of offering ITAR-free product lines to avoid being left out by the European spending wave, analysts said. The commercial side of the show fell silent on Friday after being overshadowed by last week's crash of an Air India Boeing 787 jet in India. Boeing sat out any announcements as Airbus and Embraer rolled out deals earlier in the week. Some airlines are shunning such shows to announce purchases in Washington or other capitals as aircraft become a currency of choice in a new style of transactional politics, delegates said. Organisers said the show nonetheless had record attendance.
Hans India
an hour ago
- Hans India
Iran rules out N-talks under fire
Dubai/Jerusalem: Iran said on Friday that it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict. A week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets overnight, including missile production sites, a research body involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran. Iran launched a new barrage of missiles at Israel early on Friday, striking near residential apartments, office buildings and industrial facilities in the southern city of Beersheba. After air raid warnings on Friday, Israeli media said initial reports pointed to missile impacts in Tel Aviv, the Negev and Haifa. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the US "until Israeli aggression stops". But he was due to meet European Foreign Ministers in Geneva for talks at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear programme. Two diplomats said before the meeting with France, Britain, Germany and the European Union's foreign policy chief that Araqchi would be told the US is still open to direct talks. Expectations for a breakthrough are low, diplomats say. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran was ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment and that the European's role was now more prominent because Iran is unwilling to engage with the US while under fire from Israel. But any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - will be rejected "especially now under Israel's strikes", the official said. Meanwhile, world oil markets are on high alert for any strikes that hit energy facilities in Iran or elsewhere in the Gulf which affect supplies. Qatar held crisis talks this week with energy majors after Israeli strikes on Iran's huge gas field, which it shares with Qatar, an industry source and a diplomat in the region told Reuters. Doha was asking firms to raise the US, UK and European governments' awareness of increasing risks to global gas supply, they said.
