How rising inflation affects interest rates in South Africa
June's consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3%, up from May's 2.8%, marking the first time in three months that inflation has returned to within the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) 3% to 6% target range. Despite this small increase, inflation remains low by historical standards and well below the 5.2% seen a year ago.
Old Mutual chief economist Johann Els said that while food prices, particularly red meat, were a touch higher than expected, partly due to the effects of foot-and-mouth disease, most categories remained muted. 'Consumer goods inflation is still very subdued,' he said, with clothing, furniture, and appliances still in negative territory year-on-year and core inflation slipping to 2.9%.
This paints a picture of an economy with weak pricing pressure, which Els argued justifies a further 0.25 percentage point cut to interest rates at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week.
Els said government has a 'window of opportunity' to announce a reduced 3% target for inflation. SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago has been pushing for a lower inflation target, although this will require a National Treasury policy change.
'If we miss this window of opportunity over the next few months, it's going to be more difficult for the Reserve Bank to get inflation down sustainably to 3%' as it will start drifting upwards into next year, he says.
Els said that inflation is expected to rise moderately through the rest of the year, approaching 4% by December. 'If we miss this window, it will become more difficult for the Reserve Bank to sustainably bring inflation closer to 3% once it starts drifting upwards again.'
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