Trump says chances of EU trade deal are ‘50-50 or less'

Indian Express

25-07-2025

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States has a '50-50 chance' or possibly even less of reaching a trade deal with the European Union, although he believes the EU wants an agreement.
'We're working very diligently with Europe, the EU,' Trump told reporters as he left the White House for a trip to Scotland. 'I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU.'
When asked again, he said, 'That's the big one right now … I think the EU has a pretty good chance of making a deal right now,' according to Reuters.
The European Commission said on Thursday that a deal with the US was still possible, even as EU countries approved counter-tariffs on €93 billion (about $109 billion) worth of American goods if negotiations break down.
The EU's main goal is to avoid the 30% import tariffs that Trump has said will take effect on 1 August if talks do not succeed. Trump said the EU would have to 'buy down' the tariff rate, though he did not give any details.
Some EU diplomats believe a deal might involve a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, similar to an agreement the US reached with Japan. But the White House said such reports were speculative.
The trade deal between the United States and Japan, announced earlier this week by Trump, may already be facing difficulties, with reports on Friday indicating disagreements over how to divide profits from Japan's planned $550 billion investment in the US.
The deal includes a 15% reciprocal tariff on imported goods and was presented by Trump as a model for future trade agreements. But according to Reuters, Japan is pushing for profit-sharing based on investment contribution, while the US wants to retain 90% of the returns.
Despite the tension, the agreement may have set a new benchmark for Washington's trade policy. Trump has said tariff rates will now range between 15% and 50%, with tougher trading partners facing the higher end of that scale. His 'Liberation Day' tariff plan in April had initially set a 10% base rate on all US trade partners.
As part of his broader trade strategy, Trump said on Friday that formal letters detailing tariff rates for over 200 countries would be issued soon. He added that his administration was pushing to finalise trade agreements with key partners, including the European Union, India, and Canada.
'We haven't had a lot of luck with Canada,' Trump said, suggesting the US might go ahead with 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the USMCA trade deal, as reported by Fox news.
Trump also said that talks with China were progressing. 'We have the confines of a deal,' he said, adding that US and Chinese negotiators are expected to meet again next week.
Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro told Bloomberg News that the EU's statements 'should be taken with a grain of salt'. It is not yet clear what the EU is willing to offer. One EU diplomat told Reuters that, unlike Japan, the bloc is not looking at promising investment in the US as part of the deal.