What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for ConocoPhillips Stock?
Over the past year, COP stock has been swimming against the tide, shedding 12% of its value, a sharp contrast to the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which climbed 21.1% during the same time window. The underperformance has continued into 2025, as the stock is down 6.1%, while the S&P 500 has advanced 7.9%.
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Zooming in, it has lagged behind the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which has fallen 5.9% over the last 52 weeks.
On Jul. 28, ConocoPhillips shares rose over 2%, joining a broad rally in energy stocks as WTI crude oil prices climbed more than 2% to a one-week high. The sector-wide gains reflected renewed investor optimism tied to rising oil prices.
For fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect diluted EPS to come in at $6.45, reflecting a 17.2% decline. Moreover, the company has managed to outperform bottom-line expectations in three of the last four quarters, while missing on another occasion.
Nevertheless, among 26 analysts covering COP stock, the consensus rating is a "Strong Buy," comprising 18 "Strong Buy" ratings, five "Moderate Buys," and three "Holds."
The distribution mirrors same sentiment from three months ago, suggesting that analysts are holding their ground, even as the stock has stumbled.
UBS Group AG (UBS), for instance, recently raised its price target on COP from $111 to $115 last month, reaffirming its 'Buy' rating. The firm pointed to a solid operational update in Q1 2025 but acknowledged that concerns about ConocoPhillips' capital return program have been a drag on the stock. According to UBS, that overhang has now been addressed, or in their words, 'this band-aid now ripped off.' The expectation is also that free cash flow will improve meaningfully in the second half of the year as long-cycle spending begins to taper off.
The mean price target of $115.36 represents a 23.9% premium to COP's current price levels. Meanwhile, the Street-high price target of $137 suggests a potential upside of 47.1%.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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That is what makes a market two entirely separate opinions. Jason Hall: I think both of those could be true, though. Emily Flippen: It's true. Jason Hall: We're going to see. Emily Flippen: When we get back from this break, we'll be doing tariff math in a minute. Stick with us. Policy shifts on tariffs are in motion. As you wrap up here, let's do a little bit of tariff math. That could go a long way for investors. For starters, let's take a look at hardware plus software business, Zebra. Zebra reported earnings this morning, and management had to spell it out clearly for investors. There's a $30 million operating profit headwind, just from import tariffs alone, which reduced their EBITDA margin by nearly a full percentage point. Doesn't sound like a lot. But when you're Zebra, that's a lot of cash. In other pure hardware companies, they're expected to be impacted even more. Caterpillar saw its operating profit fall 18% this quarter, again, largely due to tariffs. Now, I know exact math is impossible here, but when you look at businesses that can mitigate the impact of tariffs that have decent pricing power, Jason and Sanmeet, I want to go quick Round Robin. Where, if anywhere, is pricing power strong enough that the cost can be passed along enough to mitigate the costs of tariffs? Sanmeet Deo: I think that On Holdings is a great company with tons of pricing power. They have premium brands. Shoes are priced very highly, $150 and up. They have very high, 50% and above gross profit margin, which indicates pricing power. They're willing to raise prices, and they have just a very significant channel to do it with their direct consumers. I believe they have pretty strong pricing power. Jason Hall: I think you pretty much are going to see it in consumer brands, largely, that's where you see it. Coca-Cola is a good example. One of the reasons that Warren Buffett has loved the company as long as he has is because their ability to raise prices, even as volumes of Coke and Diet Coke in the US have declined. They've raised prices enough to more than offset the loss of the volume. That's a good example. Even now, a company, though, who's been a loser to the market over the long-term. Pricing power is still no guarantee of returns. Ferrari, I think, is a primo example of a company in an industry that you don't associate pricing power. Automakers are price takers. They're heavily competitive. But when you control the market, yeah, there's plenty of hypercars out there, but there's only one Ferrari, and your motto is to provide the market with one less than it demands every year, you have pricing power. Sanmeet Deo: What's 251,000 versus 250,000? No, big deal. There you go. Emily Flippen: Exactly. [laughs] I was going to say Lululemon. Now, they haven't historically been able, at least since the tariffs have been in place over the course of 2025, been able to pass those prices along, but I do think they had the type of audience and consumers, as well as the pricing power to at least mitigate the majority of tariff impacts. But Sanmeet, actually, in hindsight, I agree. I think On Holdings is probably where it's at. They're expanding into apparel as well. Despite the fact that I think Lululemon looks scarily cheap right now and pretty balanced risk-reward investment, I do think on is, to your point, probably in a better position there. But I guess time will tell, both for tariffs as well as future compounders. Really looking forward to where these companies are a decade from now. Sanmeet and Jason, thank you both so much for joining. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. Don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows the Motley Fool editorial standards, and it's not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. For Sanmeet Deo, Jason Hall, and the entire Motley Fool Money team, I'm Emily Flippen. We'll see you tomorrow. Emily Flippen, CFA has positions in Axon Enterprise and MercadoLibre. Jason Hall has positions in MercadoLibre and has the following options: long December 2027 $80 puts on Palantir Technologies. Sanmeet Deo has positions in Amazon, Axon Enterprise, Hims & Hers Health, On Holding, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Axon Enterprise, Hims & Hers Health, Lululemon Athletica Inc., MercadoLibre, Palantir Technologies, and Zebra Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Ferrari and On Holding. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Capital Compounders for Investors was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
