Matchday 32: The three best bets to add to your Premier League accumulator

New York Times

11-04-2025

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Outside of a couple of clear home favourites, this weekend's Premier League slate looks remarkably even. That makes finding the right betting angles all the more difficult, but fear not — once again, we've plucked out three selections for your slips.
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Poor, helpless Leicester. Everyone looks forward to playing them.
This weekend, it's Brighton's turn. Given that their run of six straight wins from February to March has turned into three straight defeats and an FA Cup exit, boy do they need a fixture like this.
Regardless of the Seagulls' dip in form, they're understandably heavily favoured to beat the league's whipping boys. Southampton may be bottom of the table and seven points adrift, but at least they've scored in each of their last four games; the Foxes, meanwhile, haven't scored in any of their previous seven.
❌ 0-3 Newcastle
❌ 0-3 Man Utd
❌ 0-4 Brentford
❌ 0-2 Arsenal
❌ 0-2 Fulham
❌ 0-2 Crystal Palace
❌ 0-2 Man City
❌ 0-3 Wolves
Leicester become the first team in English football history to lose eight consecutive home league games without scoring a goal. 🤯
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— WhoScored (@whoscored.com) 7 April 2025 at 22:02
Last week, we took Newcastle United to beat them in under 3.5 goals, and that hit, so we'll rinse and repeat this time around. Putting a goals cap in place lengthens the odds in the bettor's favour, and only one of Leicester's last six games has exceeded this mark. The fact that they rarely — if ever — contribute to the scoresheet means their opponents have to go big to spoil this bet.
Each of Everton's last five games has come in under 2.5 — a remarkable run that flies in the face of an otherwise goal-happy league.
Even frenzied contests against Liverpool and Arsenal couldn't spark the goal returns we became accustomed to seeing in January and February, back when David Moyes' appointment inspired a surge in form and confidence. In the Scot's first six games, the Toffees averaged three goals per game; in the six since, that average has dropped to 2.2.
Now, they're drifting toward the end of the campaign, drawing six of their last eight games and rarely scoring more than once. They simply don't have the attacking firepower to consistently punish Premier League-level defences.
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This Forest game could easily be more of the same — and not just because the visitors' defensive record (37 conceded in 31 games) is the joint fourth-best in the division, but because their attack has been diminished by injuries, too.
It's not clear yet whether Nuno Espírito Santo will have a striker to call upon, as Chris Wood (hip) and Taiwo Awoniyi (hamstring) missed last weekend's visit to Villa Park. Winger Anthony Elanga deputised up front in that game but withdrew at half-time due to discomfort.
These question marks, combined with Everton's stodginess, could be enough to buck the trend of Forest away games in 2025, which have almost always hit the over.
The hallmark of a doomed team is frequent late collapses. Southampton have suffered plenty this season, en route to being confirmed as the earliest team ever to be relegated from the division last weekend after 31 games.
They're now in the unenviable situation of trying to surpass Derby County's record low points total of 11 (they're on 10). The Saints just need a win, or a handful of draws, and they often start games looking like they might achieve that, but then late on, they unnerve themselves and throw it away.
In each of their last eight league fixtures, Southampton have scored or conceded a goal in the 75th minute or later. More often than not, they've been on the receiving end of those.
They host Aston Villa this weekend, who could be forgiven if they start the game a little sluggish. The Villans poured their hearts and souls into Wednesday's 3-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League, and with the second leg coming around fast, they'll likely rotate heavily for this game.
Much-changed XIs often struggle to find an immediate rhythm, especially off the back of a highly emotional night in Europe, and could need a half to get going. There's also the chance Unai Emery steadily substitutes on attacking players in the second half to find a goal, and we know full well Southampton will struggle to deal with that.
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Acca odds: 5.4/1
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(Photo of Kaoru Mitoma: Mike Hewitt / Getty Images)