Plug Power's comeback, Desert Gold's crisis protection, BP's oil boom: Your triple 200% opportunity for 2025
Plug Power, an established player in the green hydrogen market with a focus on fuel cells and electrolysis technology is struggling with regulatory hurdles and liquidity concerns in 2025. This makes the massive share purchase by CFO Paul Middleton all the more remarkable. Within a few weeks, he significantly increased his stake by a total of 650,000 shares, a clear sign of confidence in the Company's future. This coincides with significant operational progress. The scaling of hydrogen production is underway, demand for solutions such as GenDrive for industrial trucks is rising, and GenEco electrolysers are finding commercial sales. In addition, the Georgia plant reported record production in April.
A key driver of the recent share price surge was a billion-dollar project in Uzbekistan. Plug is supplying 2 gigawatts of PEM electrolysers for a USD 5.5 billion plant to produce sustainable fuels. This expands the partnership with Allied Green Ammonia, which was already concluded in January, by 3 gigawatts in Australia to a total of 5 gigawatts globally. Such large orders are essential to lead Plug away from niche solutions and toward industrial scaling. They demonstrate the Company's technological leadership and the confidence of major partners in Plug as a system provider for decarbonization.
However, the road ahead is rocky. US regulation remains the biggest Sword of Damocles. The threat of the 45V tax credit for green hydrogen being scrapped and the Trump administration's review of a USD 1.7 billion DOE loan commitment jeopardize the national expansion strategy. Plug Power is cutting costs aggressively, reducing cash burn and aiming for gross margin breakeven by the end of the year. Liquidity is expected to be sufficient for 2025. However, political clarity in the US is needed for a real prospect of doubling. The stock is currently trading at USD 1.31, and the Company intends to resolve a share consolidation at its upcoming annual general meeting. Desert Gold – Undervalued explorer in gold stronghold
In the heart of West Africa's gold belt, surrounded by producing giants such as Barrick and B2Gold, Desert Gold Ventures (TSXV:DAU) controls a huge 440 sq km exploration area in Mali. The confirmed and inferred gold resources of around 1.1 million ounces are mostly near surface. This is not only geologically promising but also has the potential to reduce future production costs significantly. The location in the highly prospective Senegal-Mali Shear Zone (SMSZ) is a major advantage, as millions of ounces of gold are already being mined there today. Desert Gold is, therefore, operating in a well-proven area.
The Company is facing decisive value drivers. The preliminary economic assessment (PEA), which is expected soon, will demonstrate for the first time the economic feasibility of potential production using low-cost heap leach technology. At the same time, a planned drilling program of up to 30,000 meters is expected to upgrade the mineral resource estimate significantly. Historical drilling data acquired by the Company earlier this year indicates additional resources of nearly 500,000 ounces, which could raise the total potential to over 1.5 million ounces. Rising gold prices and increasing takeover pressure in the region are strong catalysts.
Despite these prospects and a resource base in the millions, Desert Gold is currently trading at CAD 0.085, giving it a market capitalization of only CAD 20.45 million. This means the market currently values each ounce of gold in the ground at between USD 9.26 and USD 13.70, depending on whether historical discoveries are included. This is extremely low given a gold price above USD 3,400 per ounce. This huge discrepancy, combined with the strategic location next to established producers and the upcoming corporate milestones, makes the explorer a highly interesting, albeit speculative, investment. Analysts at GBC see significant upside potential here and have assigned the stock a price target of CAD 0.425. The upcoming PEA report could be the decisive trigger for a revaluation.
BP – Cheaply valued with lots of potential
BP shares are caught in a valuation trap. While US giants such as Exxon and Chevron are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 14, BP is listed at 11. Even the price-to-sales ratio of 0.4 is well below the industry average of 1.3. This gap seems excessive, but it is deterring many investors. The reason for this is years of uncertainty. First, the leap into renewable energies, then the return to the oil and gas business – this strategic rollercoaster ride has left its mark. Employees had to reorient themselves constantly, and internal friction was inevitable.
But there are rays of hope. BP is now back on track in its core business. Billions of dollars are being invested in projects such as Kirkuk in Iraq, which aims to achieve significant production volumes, with over 3 billion barrels within reach alone. In the long term, this figure could be many times higher. At the same time, the Company is tackling its chronic cost problems. Thousands of external service providers have been let go, the Gelsenkirchen refinery is up for sale, and the Castrol brand could also bring in billions. The goal is to significantly reduce operating expenses by 2027 and to substantially reduce net debt from its current level of USD 27 billion. If this succeeds, cash flows will surge.
The risks lie in oil price fluctuations, high debt, historical baggage from safety incidents, and weak cash generation compared to competitors. But this is precisely where the opportunity to double in value lies. The current valuation reflects almost exclusively the negative factors. If strategic clarity, ongoing cost reductions, and new major projects, such as the expansion of Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan, come together to form a coherent picture, the valuation gap could quickly narrow. That would be a boost for the share price. It is not without reason that Shell is interested in a takeover. The share is currently available for EUR 4.572.
Plug Power is struggling with US regulations under the Trump administration but is pushing ahead with the industrial scaling of green hydrogen through major projects in Uzbekistan and Australia. Desert Gold shines as an undervalued explorer in Mali's gold belt, whose upcoming feasibility study and resource upgrade could trigger a massive revaluation. BP is using strategic clarity, cost discipline, and oil megaprojects such as Kirkuk to correct its low valuation and is even being touted as a takeover candidate. Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as 'Relevant Persons') currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a 'Transaction'). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company. In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.
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