
Exclusive: inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war
WHEN ISRAEL launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a 'point of no return' in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel's own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel's dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran's programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new. These claims are proving contentious, with the intelligence services of some Western countries cautious about the imminence of the Iranian threat, and signs of divisions within President Donald Trump's administration. Our report provides context on these disputes.

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Daily Mail
38 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Nat Barr calls out Penny Wong live on air as the senator snaps back about Trump question
Nat Bar has grilled Foreign Minister Penny Wong about the prime minister's difficulty securing a face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump. After he was stood up by the US President at the G7 Summit in Canada, Anthony Albanese instead met with Trump's senior economic team on Wednesday AEST. Trump had left the summit early due to the Israel-Iran conflict, scotching a planned meeting with Albanese, who has only ever spoken to him on the phone. In a strident interview on Sunrise, Nat Barr questioned Wong about the snub, with the senator appearing to be visibly frustrated with Barr's question. 'Our prime minister is now eyeing up a trip to the Netherlands next week with hopes he might be able to line up a second date with the president, that's after the president stood him up in Canada,' Barr said. 'Is the PM going to chase him around the world?' 'Can I just put a bit of perspective here, Nat?' Wong replied. 'The president left the G7 because of the war in the Middle East. 'Now, I know we all want to think it's about us, but he left the G7 because of the war in the Middle East and he was unable as a consequence, not only to not have a bilateral meeting with the prime minister, but with (Indian) Prime Minister Modi, (and) with the president of South Korea.' Wong added that the 'world is an unstable place at the moment' and 'we've got a war in the Middle East and we have a war in Europe'. But Barr was not satisfied with Wong's answer. 'We have now, but there have been calls for many months,' Barr said. 'Trump was in in November and many of the leaders lined up and went to the White House earlier in the year, you were at the inauguration yourself in January, and there were calls for our prime minister to go and meet him much earlier than this.' Wong then repeated the line, also used by Albanese this week, that the prime minister has had three 'very constructive calls with the president'. 'But no meeting,' Barr said. 'A meeting was scheduled, (and) wasn't able to happen because of the Middle East conflict,' Wong replied. Barr continued to call out Wong: 'But there were months before that.' Wong then unleashed on Barr. 'Nat, I'm sure that a meeting will be arranged. We look forward to it. But I think the perspective, we need to remember, is what is happening in the world right now.' After Wong snapped back, Barr stopped questioning her about Trump meeting Albanese. Before the Trump meeting was cancelled, Albanese told media on Sunday that he was looking forward to 'building on the very constructive phone conversations that we've had on the three occasions that we've had the opportunity to talk'. The cancelled meeting was a crucial blow for Albanese as he tries to shore up the AUKUS submarine deal, now under review by the US, and to negotiate an easing of tariffs on Australian goods. There was pressure on the prime minister to negotiate an exemption from the tariffs: a 50 per cent levy on Aussie aluminium and steel products sent to the US, and a baseline 10 per cent levy on other goods. On Sunrise, Barr also asked Wong for her reaction to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei declaring 'the battle begins' after launching missile strikes on Israel. 'The world does certainly face a dangerous moment,' Wong said. 'But our message to Iran, along with so many countries of the world, is it's time to stop any nuclear program and it's time to come to the table. 'We see what is occurring on the ground. We see the risk to civilians in the region. It's time for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy and Iran must return to the table and it must stop any production of nuclear weapons.' Wong also played down a question from Barr about what the government's response would be if the US asked for Australia's help in the conflict. 'We're not a central player in the Middle East,' she said. 'Obviously we're a long way from this conflict but it does affect, as you know, regional stability and global stability. It also affects Australians.' Albanese might get another chance to meet Trump in person within days. The White House confirmed this month that Trump will attend the NATO Summit in the Netherlands next week, though his presence may now be in doubt because of the rapidly changing situation in the Middle East. Asked on Wednesday if he would also attend, Albanese said: 'I'm considering (it).'


Daily Mail
38 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
ROBERT HARDMAN: Gleaming George is back in Trafalgar Square... and still standing on U.S. soil
Standing alongside the British and American flags, as the Band of the Grenadier Guards played a faultless Star-Spangled Banner, a US President received the warmest of welcomes back to a sweltering London yesterday afternoon – with not a single protester to be seen or heard. A few months short of the expected state visit of President Donald Trump, VIPs from both sides of the Atlantic had assembled in Trafalgar Square for the first warm-up event – the return of President George Washington to the plinth where he was originally erected in 1921. He is now back again, opposite Lord Nelson's column and looking spotless, too, after extensive restoration work. Unchanged, however, are the foundations beneath the statue. Since Washington had allegedly vowed never to set foot on British soil (and never did), his plinth was originally planted on a bed of imported soil from his native Virginia – and that is how he remains. Even during recent repair work, he rested on a pallet to keep him off British ground. While the rededication of the statue was certainly timely, given Mr Trump's impending arrival, the catalyst for the restoration had actually been next year's 250th anniversary of American independence. As Governor of Virginia Glenn Youngkin reflected at a National Gallery ceremony ahead of yesterday's unveiling, this moment was a tribute to 'the birth of our nation and the foundation of our friendship'. The phrase 'special relationship' was liberally peppered across speeches from speakers including former prime minister Baroness May and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy. The new US ambassador to Britain, Warren Stephens, explained: 'As George Washington reminds us, the special relationship was birthed in conflict but quickly became a beacon of light and peace.' His counterpart, Lord Mandelson, warned American visitors not to be offended if they find that their national hero does not stay looking spotless for long: 'Just remember, the pigeons only drop on the very best.' George Washington has now stood in Trafalgar Square for more than a century following the gift of the statue in 1914 – though it could not be properly erected until after the First World War. George V decided on a prime spot in Trafalgar Square, in front of the National Gallery. Back then, a huge crowd heard the welcome speech by the foreign secretary, Lord Curzon, who embraced Washington as an ancestral Brit – 'one of the greatest Englishmen who ever lived because though he fought us and vanquished us, he was fighting for ideals and principles which were as sacred to us as they were to the American people.' A century on, a number of concerned Americans, led by Virginian businessman John Gerber, had noticed that Washington was looking rather forlorn. The mundane words on his Portland Stone plinth – 'Presented To The People Of Great Britain And Ireland By The Commonwealth Of Virginia 1921' – were barely legible. Passers-by had no idea who he was. Moved by Curzon's words, the Friends of the Washington Statue set to work and, yesterday, the great man reappeared from beneath a huge velvet drape, complete with new inscriptions around the base: 'Rededicated In Honour Of Enduring Friendship 2025'; 'To Our Common Ideals And Principles'; and 'To Our Common Sacrifices'. As for Washington's alleged allergy to British soil, Mr Gerber acknowledged that 'it was probably never said, but it's a good story'. Nonetheless, Governor Youngkin and his wife, Suzanne, had flown in with some unusual luggage – a cannister of fresh Virginian soil to sprinkle around the base.


Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Goldman estimates geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel for Brent after prices rise
June 18 (Reuters) - Following the rise in Brent prices to $76-77 per barrel, Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel, the bank said in a note on Wednesday. While its base case is that Brent declines to around $60/bbl in Q4 assuming no supply disruptions, Goldman said the $10/bbl premium appears justified in light of its lower Iran supply scenario where Brent spikes just above $90, and tail scenarios where broad regional oil production or shipping is negatively affected. The Iran-Israel conflict has raised fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region, pushing crude prices higher as traders react to the growing geopolitical risk. President Donald Trump kept the world guessing on Wednesday whether the U.S. will join Israel's bombardment of Iranian nuclear and missile sites, as residents of Iran's capital streamed out of the city on the sixth day of the air assault. Iran is OPEC's third-largest producer, extracting about 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. Brent crude futures settled 25 cents higher at $76.70 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 30 cents at $75.14. Separately, Barclays said on Wednesday that if Iranian exports are reduced by half, crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel and that prices could move past $100 in the "worst-case" scenario of a wider conflagration. Goldman said that the 45% decline in oil flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait -- which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean -- in 2025 versus 2023 illustrates the vulnerability of shipping to attacks from Iran-controlled Houthis.