Russian grain exports set to plunge to "Soviet levels" in 2025
Russia is close to losing its leading position in the global grain market for the first time in many years, with grain exports expected to decline by a third in 2025.
Source: The Moscow Times
Details: That's the prediction of the Russian Grain Union, a major industry association comprising nearly 300 agricultural organisations that account for 90% of national grain exports.
The Russian Grain Union estimates that next year, Russian farmers will sell 48-49 million tonnes of grain abroad, down from 72 million tonnes last year. Its president, Arkady Zlochevsky, said at a press conference that wheat exports could fall to 41-42 million tonnes, a drop of over 16 million tonnes, or 28%, compared to last year.
Grain exports are one of the Russian economy's primary sources of foreign currency earnings, bringing in US$15.5 billion in 2023. But they are plummeting rapidly. The ProZerno centre reports that volumes were down 42% year on year as of the end of January compared to the same month in 2024, with farmers exporting almost 2.5 million tonnes since the beginning of the month. Zlochevsky noted that there has always been a drop in January, "but never by half".
Grain exports are down following a harvest that was hit by bad weather and the government's decision to ban seed imports.
An additional blow to farmers was the grain export duties that have been in place since 2021. The result of the government's policy on agriculture will be a drop in harvests "to the Soviet level – rock bottom," Zlochevsky said.
Background: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is increasingly worried about the problems in Russia's war economy, just as Donald Trump is calling for an end to the war in Ukraine.
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