In Poland, Nawrocki's Win Complicates Tusk's Reform Agenda

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Karol Nawrocki's narrow victory in Poland's presidential election on Sunday signals a seismic shift in the country's politics. Backed by the nationalist Law and Justice, or PiS, party and endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump's MAGA movement, the hard-right and Euroskeptic Nawrocki edged out his liberal rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, with 50.9 percent of the vote.
Although the Polish presidency has limited formal powers, its veto authority means Nawrocki's win will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a longtime supporter of the European Union who previously served as EU Council president, has already been forced to navigate a fractious cohabitation with outgoing President Andrzej Duda—also aligned with PiS—since taking office in December 2023. Nawrocki's tenure promises more of the same at home and a possible reorientation of Poland's place in Europe, especially if he uses his veto powers to stymie pro-democratic reforms and prepare the ground for a PiS return in legislative elections that must take place by 2027.
Tusk took office promising to enact a reform agenda to restore democracy and rule of law after nine years of PiS rule. But Duda spent the past year blocking key legislation, including much-needed judicial reforms, using the presidential veto to grind governance to a halt. Nawrocki has signaled he will double down on that strategy to frustrate Tusk's every move.
Nawrocki's victory shows that PiS' long game has worked. During its tenure, PiS embedded loyalists throughout state institutions, ensuring that even after losing power it could sabotage the new administration. Nawrocki is the capstone of that strategy. By vetoing laws and creating gridlock, he will allow PiS to portray Tusk's team as ineffective. It is a grim irony that a government elected to restore democracy is now hamstrung by holdovers from the illiberal regime it defeated.
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One immediate flashpoint is social policy. Nawrocki has vowed to veto any attempt to liberalize Poland's near-total ban on abortion, which allows the procedure only if a mother's life is in danger or in the case of incest. Despite mass protests and international condemnation against the draconian restrictions, they were further tightened in October 2020, when Poland's Constitutional Tribunal outlawed abortion in the case of fetal abnormalities, a move that was promoted by the country's strong anti-abortion rights movement. In addition to endorsing such hardline views, Nawrocki also opposes legalizing same-sex partnerships. In short, any law that clashes with the conservative worldview of PiS and its core supporters is likely doomed during his term in office.
Another battleground is the judiciary. PiS's politicization of the courts must be reversed to fully unlock the EU funds that were withheld when the party began moving the country away from its democratic values. But Duda has thwarted every such effort since the 2023 parliamentary election that brought Tusk to power. Justice Minister Adam Bodnar has laid out a roadmap for restoring judicial independence, but most steps require presidential approval, and it is unlikely Nawrocki will cooperate any more than Duda has. With reforms stalled, millions of euros in EU funds will remain frozen, allowing PiS and Nawrocki to portray the delays as proof of government inefficiency in order to win back public support.
Nawrocki's triumph has exhilarated far-right populist forces across Central Europe, where regional leaders often rail against Brussels and champion 'illiberal democracy.' Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban openly cheered Nawrocki on as a like-minded ally in Warsaw, while Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico likewise sees Poland's vote as validation of his own anti-liberal agenda. Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Rally, called Nawrocki's victory 'a rebuff to the Brussels oligarchy.' The message to Europe's far right is unmistakable: One of the EU's largest countries is tilting back into their camp.
Nawrocki's victory will also boost the already tightening trans-Atlantic links among the far right. As a Trump admirer, Nawrocki won glowing praise from MAGA figures; speaking at CPAC Poland days before the presidential vote, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called Nawrocki a 'leader that would turn Europe back to democratic values.' The ideological kinship is not just rhetorical, but also strategic. The Polish far right has studied the U.S. culture wars and now exports its version of them across Europe, echoing fears about migration and the threat to so-called traditional family values.
Another flashpoint is Ukraine. Since Russia's all-out invasion in 2022, Poland has been one of Kyiv's staunchest champions. By contrast, Nawrocki ran on a 'Poland first' message that cast Ukrainian refugees as a burden and promoted a national preference policy, by which Poles would have priority access to schools and doctors over Ukrainians in the country. He also signed a pledge to block Ukraine's NATO bid and is lukewarm about Kyiv joining the EU. Though he does endorse continued military aid for the war against Russian aggression, his hard-edged nationalism signals a cooler posture toward Ukraine.
This shift raises concerns about Poland's reliability as a linchpin of regional security. Western unity is crucial as tentative peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow continue in Turkey, but Warsaw's commitment could now waver. Nawrocki insists his skepticism toward Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic institutions and hostility to Ukrainian refugees is not to be confused with a pro-Russian stance, but his positions nevertheless risk undermining the united front against Moscow. Any weakening of Polish resolve would be a dramatic turn, potentially splitting NATO's eastern flank at the worst moment and handing the Kremlin an opportunity to exploit cracks in the alliance.
His stance also threatens the stability of Poland's internal consensus on Ukraine. Until now, support for Kyiv had been a rare point of bipartisan agreement, and PiS' last-ditch attempt to mobilize tensions over Ukrainian grain exports to rally support weeks before the 2023 election backfired among voters. Nawrocki's rhetoric framing Ukrainian refugees as taking resources from Poles taps into a broader nationalist resentment and could further polarize the issue. With public attitudes shifting, Tusk's government may find it increasingly difficult to sustain the level of assistance it has offered Kyiv until now.
For Brussels and its allies, Poland's predicament is a warning. A key member state that only recently returned to the pro-EU fold is now lurching back toward Euroskeptic nationalism. Neighbors like Hungary and Slovakia have already gone down this road, while Romania only barely resisted the trend, and capitals across the bloc are feeling the strain. Nawrocki's presidency demonstrates how difficult democratic restoration can be even after populists have been ostensibly removed from government.
As a result, Poland's place at Europe's top table and its dependability on issues like Ukraine can no longer be taken for granted. Tusk's government has positioned Warsaw as a pillar of the EU mainstream and even an emerging leader in Brussels. Now, however, it is clear that a substantial proportion of Polish voters remains aligned with the bloc's nationalist fringe.
The coming months will test the EU's willingness to support Poland's pro-European majority and uphold core values. If there is a silver lining, it lies in the clarity of the lesson offered by Sunday's outcome. The fight for liberal democracy in Europe is far from over, and it must be waged with renewed urgency and unity. The price of complacency has just been made painfully clear.
Amanda Coakley is a strategic adviser and Europe's Futures Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. In 2024 she was named an Aspen U.K. Rising Leaders Fellow. Her monthly WPR column appears on Wednesdays.
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