‘We're working for a fair trade deal' with U.S., says Ontario premier
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CTV News
6 minutes ago
- CTV News
Ontario mortgage delinquencies on the rise and could climb higher still, experts warn
A real estate sign is displayed in front of a house in Toronto in this file photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler Mortgage delinquencies appear to be on the rise in both Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area and the numbers could get worse as Canada navigates choppy economic waters, experts say. According to data prepared for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) by Equifax Canada, mortgage delinquencies rose to 0.22 per cent in Ontario for the first quarter of this year. That's up from 0.15 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and 0.09 per cent in the first quarter of 2023. In Toronto, the mortgage delinquency rate hit 0.23 per cent for the first quarter of 2025. That compares to 0.14 per cent for the first quarter of 2024 and 0.08 per cent for the first quarter of 2023. Specifically, the data tracks the volume of 90-day mortgage delinquencies, which include defaults, but can also refer to late payments. While the rate might not be terribly bad by historical standards, mortgage delinquencies haven't been that high in Toronto since early 2013 and Ontario hasn't seen levels this high since 2016. Equifax reported in February that more than 11,000 mortgages in Ontario recorded a missed payment in the last quarter of 2024. The firm warned that Ontarians are struggling with their mortgages and that mortgage holders are struggling with other forms of debt as well. 'It's concerning,' says Maria Solovieva, an economist at TD Bank. Interest rates, uncertainty are factors Experts say there are two main reasons why mortgage delinquencies are on the rise now. First, the province is seeing a wave of mortgage renewals by people who bought homes with rock-bottom borrowing costs during the pandemic and are now having to renew at higher rates. But in addition to low interest rates, people also had forced savings during lockdown, Solovieva points out. 'So they had these extra funds available for them to put towards repayment,' she says. In that sense, it was predictable that some people might have difficulty making their payments now. 'There's definitely a rise in (delinquencies) associated with coming back to normalcy,' Solovieva says. Jordan Nanowski, CMHC's lead economist for the Greater Toronto Area, agrees. 'I think a rise in delinquencies is expected given that there's a lot of mortgage renewals taking place, so (that) reflects higher mortgage costs,' Nanowski says. The second thing driving up delinquencies, he says, is economic uncertainty finding its way into the labour market. 'There's a lot of economic uncertainty that in itself is already manifesting certain negative impacts,' Nanowski says. 'Especially in certain industries, we're seeing some job cuts and that could be contributing as well. So it's kind of a confluence of the two.' While the data is not clear on this point, Nanowski says the softening of the condo market could well be playing a role in delinquencies if people looking to offload those properties find they are unable to get their money out because of the weaker market. 'There definitely could be individuals that are, let's say, a little bit more tied to their property and if they have issues making payments and they're looking to sell, it's not that easy to sell,' he says. 'So in that type of environment, they might be more likely to be in arrears for longer. So market dynamics are definitely playing a factor there.' Ontario vulnerable as trade war remains unresolved Both Solovieva and Nanowski agree that going forward, Ontario could be in for a rough ride if the ongoing trade war with the United States, sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats, hits the job market. 'We do expect that Ontario specifically will be hit by the trade war a little bit more,' Solovieva says. 'The unemployment rate is already at 7.9 and 7.8 per cent between the two months in May and in June (respectively), so it's larger than average in Canada.' Nationally, unemployment sat at 6.9 per cent in June. 'The economic uncertainty and impacts of potential tariffs could impact employment for a lot of individuals, and that could increase mortgage arrears,' Nanowski says. He points out areas that support industries targeted by the U.S. for tariffs are particularly vulnerable. 'Windsor is probably the most exposed. Same with case Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo, St. Catharines, Niagara, Hamilton for steel,' Nanowski says. 'Those are places that mortgage arears might pop up a bit higher if trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist, right? And we're already seeing a bit of impact there. You're seeing some job losses in certain sectors that are more unique to that area.' CMHC could not provide the real number of mortgage delinquencies in Ontario. However, of the nearly 7 million outstanding mortgages in Canada, 0.22 per cent were in arrears in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the corporation. That translates into 15,259 mortgages across the country. Nanowski adds that while the diversified labour market within the Greater Toronto Area is something of a bulwark around Toronto, the GTA is still vulnerable in some places, such as Oshawa, where thousands of jobs are tied to the auto industry. But while there's reason for concern, Solovieva points out that for the time being, mortgage delinquencies still sit at less than a quarter of a percent. 'So it just tells you that, yes, there is strain, especially in those very not affordable regions,' she says. 'But it's not something that will basically, at this point, be a breaking point.' Are you having difficulty making your mortgage payments? CP24 and CTV News Toronto want to hear from you. Email us at torontonews@ with your name, general location and phone number in case we want to follow up. Your comments may be used in a CP24 or CTV News story.
Globe and Mail
6 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Sorry, speed cameras aren't the problem
A spectre is haunting Canadian roads: the real prospect of actually having to pay a fine for not respecting the speed limit. As speed cameras proliferate, particularly in Ontario, some drivers are showing their displeasure. Many of the cameras have been vandalized and one in Toronto cut down six times. It's time for a deep breath. Speed cameras shouldn't disappear, they should multiply. The cameras are effective and, because their penalty is so easily avoided, they are fair. In fact, a recent poll for CAA showed majority support among Ontarians for the cameras. Politicians who pander to the minority of drivers who hate them are gambling with public safety. Those politicians span the ideological spectrum, from Ontario's Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford to former Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, now mayor of suburban Vaughan, and left-leaning Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow. So busy trying to placate drivers, these politicians ignore that speed cameras work. The hit in the wallet is sufficiently unpleasant that it convinces people to slow down. For evidence, consider that the number of tickets issued by any given camera typically goes down over time. That effect has been further demonstrated by research from a hospital and university in Toronto. According to their findings, referenced in a recent city staff report, the proportion of vehicles speeding went down 45 per cent after cameras were installed near schools and in high-collision areas. The cameras actually generate relatively little revenue, after administrative costs are deducted. Their effect on behaviour is more important than the money. Fines lead to slower driving, and less speeding equals fewer injured or dead people. That's because speed is dangerous. The brain has limits on how fast it can process information taken in from peripheral vision. So a driver going more quickly experiences a literal narrowing of their vision, making it harder to spot possible risks in time. And the distance needed to brake goes up dramatically with speed, doubling between 30 and 50 kilometres an hour. Both of those factors make a collision more likely. And if one does occur, speed will make it worse. A person hit by a vehicle travelling at 30 kilometres an hour has a 90-per-cent chance of surviving. Increase the speed to 40 kilometres an hour, though, and the survival rate drops to 60 per cent. A person hit at 50 kilometres an hour has only a 20-per-cent chance of living. Mr. Ford may commiserate with drivers 'getting dinged' for going '10 kilometres over,' but small increases in speed matter. So keep the cameras, even though there are aspects of the policy over which reasonable people can disagree. Cities tend to be cagey about how much over the limit a driver has to be going to be issued a ticket. There will be absolutists on either side – claiming that any violation is worth ticketing, or that everyone speeds and thus a big buffer is warranted – but the best solution is location-specific. Speed increases make a much bigger difference on a quiet residential street than on a highway. Another contentious point is the extent to which drivers should be warned about speed cameras. Ms. Chow called earlier this year for bigger and more visible warning signs, in order to be 'fairer' to drivers. On the face, this is a farcical idea. The speed limit sign is surely warning enough. Why add a sign that effectively says, 'We really mean it'? Still, if signs flagging the presence of speed cameras are the price that must be paid for their political acceptability, so be it. Because, in the end, it may not make any difference to the effectiveness of the cameras. Cities are typically littered with so many signs that they become background clutter for drivers. These will similarly fade from notice. People who rail against speed cameras because thousands or tens of thousands of tickets have been issued – framing this as unjust or evidence of government overreach – miss the point. The volume of infractions speaks to how common speeding has become. Police rarely take traffic laws seriously, so the chances of being caught by them are slim. Cameras are reviled because they change the risk calculus. Unhappy drivers should remember that choosing to exceed the speed limit is, in fact, illegal, and that there's an easy hack to avoid getting a ticket: lighten up on that right foot.
National Post
36 minutes ago
- National Post
Why Canada's civil service needs more 'plumbers' and fewer 'poets'
Donald J. Savoie has spent decades studying the inner workings of Canada's federal bureaucracy. He's watched Ottawa grow more centralized and more crowded with what he calls 'poets,' policy thinkers and advisers, while the 'plumbers,' the front-line workers delivering services to Canadians, have not been prioritized. In an interview with National Post about the concept, as discussed in his recent book Speaking Truth to Canadians About Their Public Service, Savoie explains why that imbalance matters. Savoie is Canada Research Chair in Public Administration and Governance at Université de Moncton. Article content Article content Please briefly define what you mean by 'plumbers and poets' when it comes to the civil service. Article content Article content Article content Thank you for the question, that's a good one. A lot of times I've been interviewed about the book, and not many have caught on to the poets and the plumbers, and I think it's key. Article content Poets are people mostly in Ottawa, that are part of the government who work on policy issues, who work on liaison, on coordination or dealing with media or dealing with ministers so they define policy. Article content Plumbers are the ones delivering services to Canadians. Plumbers are the ones you applied to for a passport, plumbers are the ones you applied to for old age pension or whatever program that you want to access; they're the ones that deliver programs and services to Canadians. So the differences between poets to plumbers is fairly pronounced. Article content It's grown by leaps and bounds over the past 10 years. In 2014 it was 340,000, in 2025 we're up to 445,000, so you can see the difference there. It's over 100,000 more. Article content Article content How has that growth affected the ratio of plumbers to poets, and what's the correct ratio? Article content Article content The growth has clearly favoured the poets. And the reason I say that is just the sheer numbers of public servants in Ottawa — the number has grown. And it has not grown anywhere near the same amount in local and regional offices. Article content What's the right number? What's the right percentage? Frankly, it's difficult to answer that. I would remind you that 40 years ago about 25 per cent of federal public servants were in Ottawa, and 75 per cent out in the regions, and that sounded like a proper number. So my view is that we should strive towards that. Article content I can tell you that in France, England, and the United States, the number of public servants in the national capital, whether in London, or Washington, or Paris, is nowhere near the percentage we have in Canada. Article content In the U.K. for example, I'm taking a stab here, but like 75 per cent of public servants are outside of London, and the government over the past several years has made a deliberate attempt to move more and more public servants outside of London.
