Gold rate today: Ventura predicts gold price to climb to $3,600 peak by year-end
Gold prices have been trading in a tight range for the last few weeks, being pulled in different directions amid efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and weak US labour data. However, the brokerage believes that macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tensions, and robust investment demand will keep gold prices elevated in the second half of 2025.
Against this backdrop, it expects Comex Gold to touch $3,600 by year-end. From today's level, it signals an upside of nearly 8% for investors. The Comex Gold hit a record high of $3,534.10 on August 7, 2025, surpassing the previous peak of $3,509.90 set in April 2025.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura, said, 'Gold's strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks. With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated US Fed rate cuts, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025."
Our analysis indicates COMEX Gold could test the $3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India's gold investment market, he added.
The data over the last 20 years shows that gold has delivered positive returns in 14 years, underscoring its status as a store of value and inflation hedge. Year Nifty50 Returns (%) COMEX Gold Returns (%) MCX Gold Futures Returns (%) 2025 (YTD - Jul) 4 28.68 28.69 2024 8.8 27.23 21.43 2023 19.4 13.08 14.88 2022 2.7 -0.23 14.38 2021 23.8 -3.51 -4.09 2020 14.8 24.43 28.24 2019 11.5 18.83 24.58 2018 4.1 -1.15 7.67 2017 28.7 12.57 6.23 2016 2.8 8.63 10.08 2015 -4.1 -11.59 -6.64
The recent performance, with average annual returns of 23% over the last three years compared to 11% for the Nifty 50, also highlights its resilience and shifting investor preference.
In volatile market conditions, gold's negative correlation to equities has provided effective diversification, cushioning portfolio losses during sell-offs while participating in upswings, the brokerage added.
Meanwhile, back home, amid a 28% jump in MCX gold prices, gold ETF holdings rose 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tons as of June 30, 2025, with AUM surging 88% to ₹ 64,777 crore.
The number of investor accounts expanded 41% to 76.54 lakh, reflecting growing preference for digital gold investments, said the brokerage.
"This shift from traditional jewellery ownership to tech-enabled investment channels is being driven by Gen Z investors, fractional ownership models, and the influence of social media and fintech innovations," it said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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