The Sunday Independent's view: Donald Trump's tariffs on EU risk Mutually Assured Destruction

Irish Independent

25-05-2025

The only difference is that Dr Evil is a fictional creation, and meant to be ­funny, whereas Donald Trump is for real, and there is nothing to laugh about.
His latest wheeze is a threat to impose 50pc tariffs on the European Union starting on June 1, because 'our negotiations with them are not going well'.
His thinking, if we can use such a grandiose term for what goes on in this president's head, may be that the prospect of being hit with tariffs that would in effect end all EU exports into the US will, in the words of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 'light a fire' under negotiations.
Trump simply does not understand why a trade deal cannot be concluded with the EU as quickly as those recently announced with autocratic states such as China, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
It is certainly true that negotiating with 27 ­inconveniently democratic countries under the aegis of the EU can be cumbersome. The trade agreement with Canada took seven years to ­finalise; a free trade deal with Australia, five. Both were far less important markets for the EU.
Trump has no such time to waste. Unless he comes up with some cunning plan to bypass the constitutional limit on presidential terms, he would be well into retirement before a similarly protracted deal was reached with Europe.
Could the EU become nimbler in its decision-­making process? Arguably so. It has been compared to a supertanker, slow to turn around, when a rapidly changing and unpredictable world sometimes requires a speedboat instead.
That would, however, involve transferring more power from member states, which would be politically undoable in the present climate.
The best hope is that Trump is bluffing, or just blowing off steam. He said on Friday he was open to 'a bit of a delay' on his threat.
Economic reality may also sink in fast if he goes ahead with his threat anyway; stock markets fell sharply in response to his provocations.
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It is less than ideal to have the economic policy of democratically elected governments decided by unelected financial powers, but it may be the only way to bring sense to the White House.
If not, then the EU could be left with no option but to impose reciprocal tariffs on US goods and services. While urging talks to be conducted on the basis of 'mutual respect', Maros ­Sefcovic, ­European Commissioner for Trade, insists the bloc stands 'ready to defend our interests'.
A deal may yet prove impossible. European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen says the EU has already offered 'zero for zero' tariffs, but Trump seems to regard a level playing field as an affront.
He wants permanent US dominance cemented into any deal. Acceding to his bullying demands would hit Ireland particularly hard.
The inevitability of Mutually Assured Destruction (Mad) was meant to ensure that no great power would dare unleash its nuclear arsenal against an enemy that was armed as heavily.
These dangers clearly hold little fear for ­Donald Trump when it comes to unleashing economic warfare. There is no guarantee he won't press that button, even if his own people are among the casualties. That really would be Mad.