CWG Live updates: Minimal rain risks and seasonably hot this weekend
Happening now: Morning clouds and some fog possible, giving way to more sun over time. Humidity drops a touch, and highs are about 85 to 90.
What's next? Heat increases again Sunday with 90s more common. Back into the 80s for the workweek as a cold front moves by and offers higher rain chances in the process.
Today's daily digit — 6/10: Pretty hot. Pretty humid. I may be ready for fall. | 🤚 Your call?
The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale.
Forecast in detail
Today (Saturday): Clouds are numerous through around sunrise, then give way to increasing sunshine with time. Winds blow lightly from the south, and humidity may drop slightly compared to recent days. Still, dew points are near the muggy 70-degree zone. Any afternoon storm is quite isolated, and it may stay entirely dry. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Skies stay mostly clear, and winds also continue to blow lightly out of the south. Low temperatures are mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow (Sunday): A little bit of the heat from the Midwest and Ohio Valley trickles in for Sunday. Most spots see highs near and above 90 with partial sunshine or sunnier conditions likely. Again, just an isolated storm or two late in the day. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Humidity creeps up a little more ahead of an approaching cold front. With some additional clouds, this helps keeps temperatures in a range of 70 to 75 for lows. Confidence: Medium-High
A look ahead
Temperatures are lower to start the workweek, with a cold front in the region and more clouds around. Probably mid-80s most spots for Monday, and perhaps another touch cooler by Tuesday. Showers and storms are somewhat more likely than during the weekend, especially toward Tuesday. Confidence: Medium
Erin makes its closest pass around Wednesday before departing well northeast into Thursday. Depending on the location of the front deflecting it away, someone in the region could see additional rounds of rain early in the period, which could be heavy at times. Highs remain in the 80s. Confidence: Medium
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Many lives have been lost during hurricanes that remained well offshore but created rough surf or deceptive conditions that can disguise hazardous rip currents. Over a 10-year period, about 10 to 15% of all deaths in tropical storms and hurricanes were attributed to rip currents, according to the hurricane center. That's one reason behind a new public safety campaign NOAA launched earlier this year – "Blue IQ." Erin and past storms also clearly demonstrate how dependent we are on overhead weather patterns to steer tropical storms and hurricanes away from the coast. Examples of these patterns include the jet stream and a ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean, known as the Bermuda High. What's the chance Erin could veer closer to the coast? While the paths of many previous hurricanes have made wobbles or turns toward the coast, as Superstorm Sandy did in 2012, it's unlikely in this case, forecasts say. 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Cape Hatteras has only a 1% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds and both locations have only a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds. 'Storms like this can be beach eaters' Because Erin is growing in size, it's increasing the risks for coastal erosion, rip currents and hazardous conditions at the coast, the weather service said. Meteorologists are already warning beachgoers and mariners to pay attention to conditions and forecasts as Erin approaches the offshore waters. The hurricane center warns Erin's swells are expected to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos through August 17. Swells are then expected to spread into the Bahamas, Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast by August 18 and are likely to create life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents. "These storms that stay offshore like this one is expected to do can still impact over 1,000 miles of coast with waves and a little storm surge," Young said. "They're unlikely to knock down homes, unless those homes are already in the water." Such at-risk homes could include structures in southern St. Johns County on Florida's east coast and homes on a section of North Carolina's Outer Banks. "Storms like this can be beach eaters," Young said. "Storms like this can really chew up the sand," including on renourished beaches, even if the storms never come ashore, he said. "Erin may still do what some folks would call damage to the beaches on the order of tens of millions of dollars." Which storms took a path similar to Hurricane Erin? 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The strong surf led to multiple rescues along the coast, as well as coastal flooding. The hurricane later made landfall in Newfoundland. Hurricane Joaquin: Joaquin looped in the Bahamas in late September and early October of 2015, and then traveled northeast. After sailing into Joaquin, the SS El Faro was lost at sea on Oct. 1 and ultimately sunk, killing 33 crew members. A weather system that developed over the Southeast tapped into a steady stream of moisture from Joaquin and created days of rain, while high tides from the hurricane's swells all combined to cause historic flooding in South Carolina, including in Columbia and Charleston, even though the hurricane remained offshore. Hurricane Lorenzo: Like Erin, 2019's Hurricane Lorenzo rapidly intensified and became a major hurricane. Even though it was centered much farther to the east in the Atlantic, Lorenzo created massive swells that caused "hazardous surf and rip currents along U.S. beaches for several days," the hurricane center said. Eight people died in the storm's rough surf and rip currents, four in North Carolina, one in Florida, two in New York and one in Rhode Island. What's a 'fish storm?' Many hurricane veterans jokingly refer to hurricanes and tropical storms that remain offshore as "fish storms," because they remain over the open ocean. However, Brian LaMarre, a veteran meteorologist who recently retired from the weather service, said this week there's "a great deal more than fish out there" given the dense shipping traffic and commerce networks offshore. Impacts from the waves and long-period swells can be "incredibly disruptive and can extend hundreds of miles outward from these ocean storm systems," LaMarre said. Track Erin's progress Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NOAA Hurricane Erin forecasts dangers on beaches along East Coast
