Ringgit to trade at 4.25-4.26 versus greenback on Fed rate cut optimism

New Straits Times

4 days ago

KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to trade between 4.25 and 4.26 against the US dollar next week, following weaker-than-expected United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which may prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider an interest rate cut at its September meeting.
The NFP data for July fell short of expectations to just 73,000 jobs, significantly below the consensus estimates of 106,000.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the latest NFP data could boost sentiment for the ringgit, as it increases the expectations that the Fed may reduce the Federal Funds Rate in September.
He also noted that NFP figures for the previous two months — May and June — were revised sharply lower, further reinforcing expectations of a potential rate cut.
"Such views were very much aligned with the two dissenters during the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which favoured a quarter-point cut.
"The outlook for Fed Fund Rate was the main consideration among the traders as the Fed was seen as indecisive on further monetary policy accommodation during the recent FOMC meeting," he told Bernama.
Meanwhile, Mohd Afzanizam said the US government's recent decision to impose a reciprocal tariff of 19 per cent on Malaysia-- down from a previous rate of 25 per cent-- could help mitigate the impact.
"This is a welcome move, and there may be room for further negotiations. An improved trade arrangement could prove positive for the ringgit over the medium term," he added.
Furthermore, he believes that the recently announced 13th Malaysia Plan (13th MP) will support the ringgit in the medium to long term.
Under the plan, development expenditure has been increased to RM430 billion, which is expected to boost domestic demand and encourage investment activities, ultimately supporting Malaysia's gross domestic product growth.
The 13th MP was tabled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in Parliament on Thursday, with a focus on driving sustainable growth based on value creation across all sectors.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2750/2815 versus 4.2195/2245 previously.
However, the local note traded higher against a basket of major currencies.
The ringgit appreciated vis-à-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8407/8452 from 2.8529/8565 on Friday the previous week, rose versus the euro to 4.8752/8826 from 4.9507/9566 last week, and gained against the British pound to 5.6208/6293 from 5.6786/6853 previously.
Against ASEAN currencies, the ringgit trended mostly higher.
The local note firmed against the Singapore dollar to 3.2907/2960 from 3.2937/2978 at the end of last week, strengthened versus the Thai baht to 13.0058/0319 from 13.0268/0478, and improved against the Philippine peso to 7.35/7.36 from 7.38/7.40 in the preceding week.
However, it edged lower versus the Indonesian rupiah to 258.8/259.4 from 258.5/258.9 in the previous week.