RBI's MPC to focus on supporting growth momentum; 25-bps repo rate cut likely: Report
NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to stay focused on boosting economic growth, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings. The agency said the MPC will likely prioritise measures that support the ongoing recovery in growth momentum.
The report suggests the ongoing rate-cut cycle, which began in February, will likely proceed with an additional 25-bps repo rate reduction at the June meeting, maintaining an "accommodative stance".
"The healthy growth momentum and the already easing money market rates may prompt the RBI to take incremental steps in policy easing, reducing the likelihood of a larger rate cut in this meeting," CareEdge said in the report.
"We anticipate the policy statement to strike a dovish tone while remaining cautious about evolving global developments," the report added.
The report further notes declining retail inflation, with April's CPI dropping to 3.2%, reaching a six-year low. For three successive months, retail inflation remained under 4%, with reduced food and beverage inflation contributing significantly to this trend.
Food and beverages category inflation decreased to 2.1% in April from 9.7% in October 2024.
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Despite improved economic growth figures, the report emphasises persistent external challenges likely influencing RBI's MPC sentiments.
India's economy achieved 6.5% real growth in financial year 2024-25, with Q4 FY25 showing 7.4% growth, notably higher than the previous quarter's 6.2%. According to CareEdge Ratings, private consumption growth slowed to 6% in Q4 from 8.1% in Q3. Rural demand is expected to stay strong due to good agricultural output and easing inflation, but urban demand remains uncertain.
The growth in Q4 was largely driven by higher net indirect tax collections and lower imports, rather than broad-based sectoral improvements.
"Although agriculture and services have shown resilience, several concerns remain. Subdued manufacturing growth, uneven consumption demand, a delayed recovery in private capital expenditure, and weak exports are key factors that warrant close monitoring," the report said regarding potential MPC decisions scheduled for Friday.
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