Blaney among 13 Fir Park departures as six players remain in talks
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Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Morning Bid: Bitcoin joins the risk-on party
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee You know markets are fully risk-on when cryptocurrencies are on a tear, with bitcoin joining global stocks to scale a record peak as the near certainty of U.S. interest rate cuts bolsters risk sentiment and weighs on the dollar. The world's best-known cryptocurrency, bitcoin , has a lot going for it: prospects of lower interest rates, a more favourable regulatory environment, and bullish inflows from institutional investors. Ether too has been on the charge, hovering near its highest since November 2021, becoming the token of choice for those looking for more active returns. In fact, ether is up 42% this year, outstripping the 32% gain for bitcoin. Stocks in Asia were taking a bit of a breather after a blistering rally this week. Japanese shares fell after hitting a record high, while tech-heavy Taiwan and South Korean shares eased after recent highs. Investors are wagering that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates from next month, with traders starting to even price in odds of a 50 basis points cut after comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. "If we'd seen those numbers in May, in June, I suspect we could have had rate cuts in June and July. So that tells me that there's a very good chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut," in September, Bessent said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has been regularly lambasted by U.S. President Donald Trump, is expected to speak at a central bank research conference in Wyoming next week and the focus will be on his tone on policy path. Bessent also said the Bank of Japan will likely be raising interest rates as it is behind the curve in dealing with the risk of inflation, leading to strong gains in the yen , which stayed around its strongest level in three weeks. Investor focus during European hours will be on a swathe of economic data that will offer a glimpse of the tariff uncertainties and the impact of the duties on the economy. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: Economic events: Euro zone flash GDP for Q2, UK prelim GDP for Q2
Reuters
8 minutes ago
- Reuters
Investors adopt "higher for longer" view on ECB rates
Aug 14 (Reuters) - Investors are increasingly pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in the euro zone, with a potential cut in March seen as a temporary blip before borrowing rates climb back above 2%. A number of market-based measures of rate expectations indicate that investors are growing less concerned about the deflationary impact of tariffs following the recent trade deal between the United States and the European Union. They're also confident that a sharp increase in fiscal spending in Germany will boost the economy, thereby reducing the need for more rate cuts in the longer term. Several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have revised their forecasts, now anticipating that the European Central Bank has ended its current easing cycle. While trade risks could still weigh on growth and inflation, these banks believe the ECB, which offered an upbeat assessment of the euro zone economy after its latest meeting, is likely to hold rates at 2% for the foreseeable future. Erring on the side of caution, markets are pricing in the risk of a pick up in deflationary pressure early next year if tariff negotiations falter, which is showing up as an implied ECB rate cut in March. In the meantime, the euro has risen by nearly 3% this month as investors increasingly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in September, while the ECB stays put. "Higher for longer" was a narrative that dominated markets in 2022 and 2023 as central banks grappled with stubborn inflation stemming from the COVID pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Here are some of the market indicators that reflect its return. Forward contracts on the ECB's official overnight benchmark interest rate, the euro short-term rate (ESTR), imply around a 60% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by March, and a deposit rate of 1.92% in December 2026. This reflects traders' assumptions about the likely path for monetary policy. 'In the short term... there is the potential of inflation undershooting. It's a bit of Trump. It's a bit of economic weakness,' said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING. 'Our view is that inflation will remain structurally above 2% in the coming years, driven by fiscal spending and the restructuring of supply chains, which will increase costs for companies,' he said. He added that policy rates could reach the upper bound of the ECB's official 1.75% to 2.25% range for the neutral rate - that which is neither accommodative nor restrictive - and shift into tightening territory if required. The euro short-term rate (ESTR) 5-year overnight index swap (OIS) is seen as a barometer of the medium-term monetary policy outlook and can be loosely used as a market-implied gauge of the neutral rate. The swap rate hit a high of 2.406% in early March, when Germany agreed on the biggest overhaul to its fiscal spending in decades, and has since fallen to around 2.12%, having traded above the 2% mark consistently for the last six weeks. 'We're a bit more negative on growth than everyone else and a bit more worried about inflation than everyone else,' said Lyn Graham-Taylor, senior rates strategist at Rabobank. 'But we've literally no change for the deposit rate out till the end of 2027,' he added. The Euro Interbank Offered Rate reflects the average rate at which major European banks lend unsecured funds to one another. The Euribor rate also captures some credit risk because of the involvement of banks. The curve mirrors that of ESTR forwards, so it also suggests rates could dip modestly by March before rising above 2% again into 2027. Paul Hollingsworth, head of developed markets economics at BNP Paribas, believes the ECB's next move will be to hike rates in the fourth quarter of next year. 'I see the rate hike as a recalibration within the neutral the balance of data and risks shifts from the drag of tariffs toward a more positive impulse driven by fiscal policy,' he said.
BBC News
35 minutes ago
- BBC News
Wales' sisters doing it for themselves (and Nant)
Women's Rugby World Cup 2025: Scotland v WalesVenue: Salford Community Stadium Date: Saturday, 23 August Kick-off: 14:45 BSTCoverage: Live on BBC One, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport Online and BBC Sounds You will be hard pushed to find a prouder rugby club in Wales right now than Nant north Wales club has produced not just one but two sets of sisters for Wales women's 2025 Rugby World Cup and Branwen Metcalfe have been named alongside Gwenllian and Alaw Pyrs in Sean Lynn's 32-player group which will kick-off their campaign against Scotland later this while the Pyrs sisters are getting used to packing down together, it will be a new experience for the Metcalfes, with Wales Under-20s captain Branwen yet to make her senior debut. "I'm lost for words to be honest, everything that's happened in the past year has been a whirlwind," said Branwen."I haven't trained much with the squad yet, but it's been really great coming into this environment, I'm learning a lot as I go."Everyone is really nice and it's nice to come in as a young player with all these experienced players."Asked who she looks up to in the camp, Branwen said: "Definitely Al Cal [Alex Callender] and Kate Williams, they're just role models, the way they play, the way they talk, I just want to be like them."Hopefully I can make a breakthrough at some point, I'm just trying to learn at this time."Nel said she was delighted for her not so little sister."The family is buzzing," she said."People have asked 'how do you feel?'. I couldn't be prouder. I've seen how hard she has worked, she deserves this."I would say I do look out for her [in camp] and check she's ok, but she can handle herself, everyone has been pretty welcoming." Humble beginnings Wales is no stranger to having siblings run out together, Horgan twins Claire and Louise both won international honours against France in two sets of sisters is something quite special, even more so when they all come from the same grassroots Alaw, Nel and Branwen all got their start at Nant Conwy, a community rugby club nestled between the villages of Llanrwst and Trefriw."They are always so supportive of us whatever we do," said Nel."It's just everything about Nant, it's not just a club, it's the whole community, everyone knows each other."That sense of belonging is underlined by Branwen: "Growing up we were probably there every day," the younger Metcalfe adds."The club has been such a big part of, not just our journey, but our whole family. It's really nice that we can do this together."The siblings will find out if they will play alongside each other when Wales announces its team to face Scotland next Thursday. Nant Conwy RFC chairman Marc Jones said it was with a "heartfelt sincerity" that they celebrated the success of their former players."Congratulations to the girls, their achievements are down to their total dedication and commitment," he said."Their success is intrinsically linked to their coaches, staff and our whole club ethos. "Being part of the Nant Conwy community, it was only a matter of time that major representation was achieved. They will through their achievements, I'm sure, be a catalyst for all of our players moving forward."Tudor Roberts leads the girls section, Ceirw Nant, and he too is "immensely proud" of the girls for making the Wales squad from "humble beginnings". "It certainly spurs the young ones on, and shows that the pathway is there and through hard work and commitment it is possible," he said. "We wish them all the best of luck and will be cheering them on for sure."The standard of girls rugby in north Wales has bloomed, with quality games being played weekly. It's only a matter of time before more girls from north Wales start putting their hand up for selection."
