Agonizing about Alaska

Politico

a day ago

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And with that, to the news at hand.
Following President DONALD TRUMP and Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN's arrivals in Anchorage for their consequential meeting, it's been getting even more difficult to read the signals coming from the White House about what to expect.
Aboard Air Force One en route to Alaska, Trump sounded like he planned to go tough pushing Putin to commit to a ceasefire. He told reporters, 'I want to see a ceasefire rapidly. I don't know if it's going to be today, but I'm not going to be happy if it's not today.' (Of course, the two leaders could always agree on a nominal or partial ceasefire proposal that disadvantages Kyiv).
In a move that allayed some fears from boosters of Kyiv, White House spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT told reporters that the official meeting would no longer be just the two leaders and their translators. Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO and special envoy STEVE WITKOFF are now expected to join Trump in a three-on-three meeting with Putin and two other senior Russian officials, Leavitt said. She did not say which Russian officials will join Putin.
'Trump's hand just got stronger in being able to stare down Putin,' said DOUG KLAIN, an analyst at the group Razom for Ukraine, shortly after the update from Leavitt.
That optimism, however, likely deflated once both leaders arrived and gave each other a warm handshake. Trump then let Putin ride with him in the Beast, the presidential limousine, with seemingly no translators or aides in tow.
That scene is probably not helping allies of Kyiv who are nervous about the meeting. They argued before the welcome that even if Putin agrees to a ceasefire, any further delay in imposing harsh sanctions on Moscow could still give Russia the space necessary to regroup and the resources to reequip and prepare for the moment the truce breaks.
And even though the bilateral meeting will involve other officials — avoiding comparisons to the infamous 2018 summit between Trump and Putin in Helsinki where the leaders met with just translators joining them in the room — the format of the meeting nevertheless plays into Putin's diplomatic strengths.
'Putin puts a lot of stock in face-to-face diplomacy with people like Donald Trump, who he thinks that he can best,' said DAVID SALVO, a former U.S. diplomat who served in Russia, now at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. He argued it's beneficial to Putin 'if you have someone across the table who's susceptible to flattery and who's susceptible to pomp and circumstance.'
The Russians are also offering mischievous signals. Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV was spotted wearing a USSR sweatshirt, and the Russians were serving 'Chicken Kiev' to journalists on a chartered plane ahead of the summit.
For its part, Kyiv is staying publicly optimistic. 'Everyone needs an honest end to the war. Ukraine is ready to work as productively as possible to end the war. We hope for a strong American position. Everything will depend on this — the Russians are only afraid of American strength,' Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said in an address today.
It's also worth remembering the pressure on Putin, especially since secondary tariffs and sanctions would punish allies — chiefly India and China, which buy the most Russian oil — Russia desperately needs to keep its war effort afloat.
Putin has 'got to make this look like it's a success, and he's got to forestall any real cost on his and his supporters and customers,' said The Heritage Foundation's BRENT SADLER. Sadler added that were the meeting to go poorly, 'those capitals will start to question why they are continuing to risk it with Putin. And it just accelerates them stepping back away from Russia —China slower, India faster.'
The Inbox
WHO'S IN ANCHORAGE: Russia's not the only one bringing a big delegation of officials to the Alaska summit.
The White House told reporters today that a gamut of top officials is traveling with the president to Anchorage. Those accompanying Trump include Rubio, Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT, Commerce Secretary HOWARD LUTNICK, Witkoff, White House chief of staff SUSIE WILES and top aides STEVEN CHEUNG, Leavitt and JAMES BLAIR. Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH is also going to Alaska but is traveling separately.
The list, and the fact that Rubio, Witkoff, Bessent, Lutnick, Hegseth and Wiles will accompany Trump at a lunch with the Russian delegation, suggests that the Trump team may wish to discuss more than security issues with their Russian counterparts.
Joint Chiefs Chairn Gen. DAN CAINE and U.S. European Command's Gen. ALEX GRYNKEWICH will also be on the ground with the president. Their presence is notable since Caine and Grynkewich have emerged as quiet but important players in policy discussions in the Pentagon and White House and have the kind of high-level operational military experience that Hegseth lacks.
POLITICO reported Thursday that the Russian officials accompanying Putin are Lavrov, Defense Minister ANDREY BELOUSOV, Finance Minister ANTON SILUANOV, Russian sovereign wealth fund head KIRILL DMITRIEV and senior Kremlin aide YURI USHAKOV.
Related: Will Trump and Putin's meeting be successful? Here are 6 things to look out for by our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Gregory Svirnovskiy
RENT FREE FOR NOEM: Homeland Security Secretary KRISTI NOEM is crashing at a home on a Washington military base intended for the head of the U.S. Coast Guard — and apparently isn't paying the U.S. government rent for her lodgings.
As The Washington Post's Marianne LeVine, Liz Goodwin and Dan Lamothe report, Noem is living in a spacious waterfront house on Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington, and they scoop that Noem isn't paying rent to live there. The home, dubbed Quarters 1, is intended for the commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard; Trump's pick for the position has yet to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.
Cabinet secretaries are permitted live at houses on U.S. military bases, but only if they pay the government for the fair-market value of the property's rent, according to federal law. Government ethics specialists, former and current Coast Guard officials and former top DHS officials are expressing concern that Noem will be perceived as using her position as a Cabinet secretary to accrue unfair perks, according to the Post.
Department of Homeland Security spokesperson TRICIA McLAUGHLIN told the Post the move was necessary after British tabloid the Daily Mail published photos of the surroundings of Noem's apartment building in Washington's Navy Yard neighborhood; that article led to Noem being doxed, McLaughlin said.
McLaughlin also accused the Post of not having empathy for Noem, whom she described as a 'rancher.' The Post, however, noted that Noem is estimated to have a $5 million net worth and makes more than $200,000 a year as a Cabinet secretary.
SHIPS HEADED SOUTH: The U.S. Navy is sending as many as 4,000 Marines, an amphibious ship, several destroyers and a submarine to patrol the Caribbean, a defense official and a person familiar with the deployment confirm to NatSec Daily.
The deployment, which kicked off Thursday, 'is meant to send a signal' in the region, according to one of the officials. NatSec Daily granted anonymity to speak about a deployment that hasn't been formally announced. Such a large U.S. Navy presence in the waters off Central and South America is a rare occurrence, but it comes as the Trump administration is prioritizing Western Hemisphere security and countering drug shipments to the U.S.
The deployment of the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group cut a large presence in the SOUTHCOM region, which rarely sees such a large American military footprint.
The Iwo Jima, an amphibious ship bristling with fighter planes and carrying Marines from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, will lead the group, which will likely stay in the region for several months. Joining will be several destroyers, a cruiser and a P-8 submarine surveillance plane. The deployment was previously reported by CNN.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring David Salvo, the former diplomat to Russia. On a hot, 'disgusting' day like today, David goes for a Pilsner. But otherwise, he told us he's partial to a gin martini — extra dirty.
Your host, being a gin martini lover, of course asked which gin is his preference. He's told us he's not a picky martini drinker. 'I'll take a Hendrick's or Tanqueray or Bombay Sapphire. It's fine. Any of the above or a rail gin, it doesn't matter,' David said.
A wonderful sentiment! Cheers, David!
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Keystrokes
IMITATION IS THE BEST FORM OF FLATTERY: Russian disinformation operations are creating fake news articles impersonating U.S. news outlets as part of an effort to spread Kremlin propaganda around the war in Ukraine.
The fake articles are being spun up by a group researchers have dubbed Storm-1679 and have been tracking since at least 2022. As part of Russia's extensive influence campaign, the group has tried to spread disinformation around the 2024 Paris Olympics, the German elections and Ukraine's mobilization effort.
As our own Dana Nickel reports, most of the content published by this group rarely gains traction. But its capabilities are improving with the latest developments in artificial intelligence technology.
The group was behind a fabricated E! News video in February that claimed the U.S. Agency for International Development paid for celebrities to visit Ukraine after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. That video got boosted by DONALD TRUMP Jr., ELON MUSK and other high-profile critics of Kyiv and went viral.
Our POLITICO Pro subscribers had this news first in t oday's issue of Morning Cybersecurity. Want to get this sharp reporting delivered to your inbox every morning? Here's more information on how you can become a POLITICO Pro yourself.
The Complex
THE FILIPINOS ARE FOCUSED: The U.S. briefly deployed two Navy warships near Scarborough Shoal this week after a dramatic incident in which two Chinese vessels collided while chasing a Philippine patrol ship — the latest in a string of aggressive encounters in the contested South China Sea.
Last year, Chinese coast guard forces assaulted Filipino personnel near at the Second Thomas Shoal, with one sailor losing his thumb after his craft was rammed and boarded. This time, Filipino mariners came out on top.
'They've become quite sophisticated,' said Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.), who happened to be on an official visit to the Philippines during the incident told Morning Defense (For Pros!). 'From coast guard boat handling to first aid and maritime domain awareness, you're seeing a real evolution — not just more training, but a shift in posture. They're responding to China's new tactics with greater capability and resolve.'
Young has a bill to boost joint U.S.-Philippines coast guard patrols to counter Chinese coercion. 'To the extent they see the United States actively assisting them, … I would anticipate they'd be prepared to fight with us,' he said. Given growing alarm in Washington about China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific, the bill has good odds of becoming policy (either as part of a larger defense bill or as policy implemented directly by the administration).
Asked whether open conflict between China and the Philippines felt close, Young was blunt: 'I would answer your question pointedly: It does,' he said. 'That's why they're so focused right now, because they think this is incredibly precarious situation, and they're resolute and asserting their sovereignty.'
The USS Mobile and USS Gabrielle Giffords, both littoral combat ships, operated near Scarborough Shoal on Tuesday before departing, according to Indo-Pacific Command.
Broadsides
TO PUTIN, WITH LOVE: Trump may go to greet Putin's plane, but that doesn't mean Alaskans are rolling out the red carpet for the Russian leader.
As our colleague Veronika Melkozerova reports, Alaskans are protesting Putin, flying Ukrainian flags and toting signs accusing the Russian leader of war crimes in Ukraine.
The organizers of a rally in Anchorage said 'Alaska opposes tyranny' in a post on social media, calling on supporters to 'protest against an international war criminal hanging out here.' The protesters include organizations that advocate for Alaska Natives and those that advocate for environmental and racial justice in the Great North.
Allies of Kyiv were quick to spread images of the Alaska protests. 'Ukraine and Alaska — Russian never again,' OSTAP YARYSH, a spokesperson for the Razom for Ukraine foundation, said in a post on X, along with footage of the protest.
Transitions
— SUSANNA BLUME is returning to the Center for a New American Security as a distinguished senior fellow for its defense program. Blume served as director of the Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation at the Department of Defense during the Biden administration.
— KELLY RAZZOUK is now vice president for policy and advocacy at the International Rescue Committee. She previously was senior director for Democracy and Human Rights at the National Security Council in the Biden White House.
— DAVID COOK has joined the office of Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.) as the representative's national security adviser. He was most recently director of national security at open source intelligence company ShadowDragon and was a TechCongress fellow in Issa's office.
What to Read
— Joshua Yaffa, The New Yorker: How an Asylum Seeker in U.S. Custody Ended Up in a Russian Prison
— Toby Gati, POLITICO: Putin's 'America Guru' Changed His Mind About the US. Here's What That Means for Ukraine.
— Genevieve Glatsky and María Silvia Trigo, The New York Times: From a Compound in the Woods, Evo Morales Runs a Phantom Campaign
Monday Today
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Preview of the Trump-Lee Summit
— Foreign Policy, 11 a.m.: Debriefing the Trump-Putin Summit
— Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 11:30 a.m.: Trump Meets with Putin: Experts React Live
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who would do an awful job negotiating with the Russians.